Afrasianet - Mazen Al Najjar - Eight decades after the end of World War II, with all its horrors and repercussions, the balance of nuclear terror, and the inclusion of Europe under "American peace", in the shadow of bipolarity, Cold War, then American unipolarity, and prosperity under the umbrella of NATO and the European Union, the old continent has returned to its original course: conflicts, militarization, wars, economic decline and political chaos.
In the European Union, the role of the Franco-German axis within the Union declined, beginning with an equal partnership between France and Germany, and then turning into a unilateral patriarchal leadership.
The European Union has abandoned any claim to defend Europe's interests, deprived itself of cheap energy and trade with its partner Russia, imposed heavy economic sanctions on itself, and became involved in the purchase of expensive American energy at times the price of Russian energy, and the result was a reduction in the US trade deficit and an increase in the European deficit, and an increase in the profits of American energy companies and their taxes to the US Treasury!
In the clutches of the American occupation
U.S. officials have long and bluntly explained the goals of the North Atlantic Treaty Treaty Organization (NATO) and the reasons for the U.S. military occupation of Germany since 1945 by saying that the goal: to drive out the Soviets/Russians, keep the Americans, and subjugate the Germans, making Germany an American protectorate. But America itself, which may once have been a protectorate, is now a "predatory hegemon" as Stephen Walt recently described in Foreign Affairs.
According to the French thinker Emmanuel Todt in his book "The Defeat of the West", NATO is diving into the European "unconscious", as its military, ideological, and psychological mechanisms do not exist to protect Western Europe, but to control it. Russia currently sees Russia in the process of victory over NATO, which has entered a new phase in Europe centered on the London-Warsaw-Kiev triangle, and NATO cannot win this war for fundamental objective reasons.
Europe has consciously and actively participated in creating conditions conducive to the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict by supporting its ultra-nationalist currents and bringing them to power, and has injected weapons, advanced military equipment, billions of dollars of financial liquidity, and military advisers to train its forces, to become a member of NATO in practice, not officially.
"In light of moral bankruptcy and nihilism, the West does not understand that it is no longer alone in the world, and it must think carefully about what it can offer humanity today, after its reference values have receded, and its socio-political system is no longer effective or effective in its original context"
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With Russia's disdain, the West has forgotten the strategically dangerous decline of the military-industrial base in most of its countries, which translates into a vacuum in European arms depots and an inability to meet the needs of the Ukrainian army in weapons and ammunition.
America's occupation of Germany and its control over Europe and the European decision have been prolonged, and there is no longer any justification for their continuation, especially after Germany recovered early from its disastrous defeat in World War II, and led Europe with a French partnership (which is currently being wasted!), the realization of German unity, and the completion of the building of the structures and institutions of the European Union! The continued U.S. occupation casts a shadow over Germany's ability to enter a war with Russia in which Europe is on the ground.
Germany is sorely lacking a capable political elite, a visionary and competent leaders like those who led it during and after the Cold War: Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt, Jarrod Schröder, Angela Merkel, and Helmut Kohl, the German unification adviser, despite the explicit British opposition and obstruction (Margaret Thatcher) and tacit American obstruction, an achievement that reduces the burden of the continuation of the American occupation forces and bases on German soil.
Russian-German Alliance!
During the Cold War, these leaders from the two parties, the Social Democrats, or the Christian Democrats, embarked on a policy of opening up to the East (Soviets), importing Soviet natural gas through the first pipeline in the early 1980s, despite strong American opposition from President Ronald Reagan. Angela Merkel was the last of the powerful leaders whose policies opened up to Russia and the import of Russian gas to achieve the highest prosperity and competitiveness for Germany's economy and production.
In his reading of the future balances of the international system , Tod opens his discussion with the surprises of the Ukraine war: the inevitability of a Russian-German alliance with deep geopolitical and anthropological roots, with the American-centered Protestant West retreating to itself, and the global South emerging as a rising power independent of the West!
In light of moral bankruptcy and nihilism, the West does not understand that it is no longer alone in the world, and it must think carefully about what it can offer humanity at the moment, after its reference values have receded and its socio-political system is no longer effective or effective in its original context.
The outbreak of the war in Ukraine was a historic moment that revealed the conditions, surprises, cracks in the European construction and the confusion of its German leadership. The Europe that pushed Russia and Ukraine into the war seemed different from what the world had known for decades. It achieved peace among its nations with conviction, and achieved stability, unity and prosperity at historic levels.
It seemed to have learned much from its history of the widest and most violent conflicts, abandoning fascism and inter-national violence, unanimously embracing liberal democracy, and facing challenges and differences with wisdom, patience and diplomacy.
"Arming Europe is no longer just aimed at Russia, but also at China. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced the use of all means against China in the dispute over Taiwan"
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From Nihilism to Militarism and War
Europe's reaction to the Ukraine war was a coup against this, and it returned to the policies of militarization, wars, and self-destruction, and beat the drums of war and heavy armaments, and identified with the American incitement to expand the horizons of the conflict, and to drain and besiege Russia with the widest network of economic sanctions in history, and to close the curtain on openness and cooperation.
This led to Germany, the locomotive of the European Union, which had lost its ability to lead and prevent the outbreak and escalation of wars, and handed over its decision to America, a spiteful and untrustworthy partner. Germany could have led NATO not to provoke Russia into Ukraine's membership in the alliance, but it did not!
German writer Fabian Schidler warns that the European Union could be completely destroyed if the war in Ukraine expands, but he is doing nothing to avoid it, and has been undermining diplomatic attempts to remedy the situation. It was known from the beginning that Ukraine would not win the war and that it had entered a stalemate. You don't need to be a military expert to understand that the recapture of Donbas and Crimea is unrealistic because of the recruitment problems of Ukraine's military and rampant corruption in its ruling elite.
After more than four years and hundreds of thousands of deaths and victims, EU countries have committed to a program of rearmament and confrontation rather than diplomacy. According to decisions taken at the 2024 NATO summit in Washington, new intermediate-range missiles with nuclear warheads are set to be deployed in Germany, for the first time since the 1980s. Rather than making Germany safer, this would turn the country into a potential target for attacks when escalated.
There has been no public or parliamentary debate in Germany on the move. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz agreed to another wave of armaments with a gesture of his hand, and abandoned the possibility of reviving the Treaty on the Dismantling and Banning of Intermediate-Range Nuclear Missiles in Europe, signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987 and terminated by Donald Trump in 2019.
"Years ago, Germany's new militarism was ruled out, and more recently it has coincided with a change in political culture. Posters for the Social Democratic elections show Defense Minister Boris Pistorius calling for a "good army for war by 2029," wearing combat equipment and a weapon in his hand"
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Austerity and extremism
How massive rearmaments are supposed to make Europe safer. NATO's military budget is more than ten times that of Russia's: $1.47 trillion to Russia's $140 billion. The Russian leadership has to be truly suicidal to attack a NATO member state.
Arming Europe is no longer just aimed at Russia, but also at China. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced the use of all means against China in the dispute over Taiwan. Thus, the EU is adhering to Washington's strategic directives.
Since President Barack Obama launched the "pivot to Asia" or "pivot of the Pacific" in 2012, the Pacific has been heavily armed. As German warships sail with the U.S. Navy in the South China Sea, much to Beijing's concern, Schidler asks: What will EU leaders say if Chinese warships appear in the Mediterranean and North Seas?
Does Germany really want to fight wars against Russia and China, the world's largest real GDP and the world's third-largest nuclear power with a population of 1.4 billion?
Germany is no longer politically and economically stable, and a political crisis has led to early elections on February 23, 2025. Europe's largest economy has been in recession for years, and its industry has suffered the fallout from soaring energy prices due to sanctions on Russian oil and gas. Big companies such as Volkswagen have laid off tens of thousands of employees, and corporate bankruptcies are at their highest since the 2008 financial crisis, and an industrial downturn is on the horizon.
In November 2024, the ruling coalition between the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party collapsed due to disagreements over the 2025 budget.
Payments for arms shipments to Ukraine have been a major factor, and the huge cost of Germany's massive rearmament has weighed on the government's finances. In 2022, Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged a special fund of €100 billion (about $108 billion) (over five years) to strengthen the armed forces.
The Greens, the Social Democrats and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) talked about another 300 billion shekels, other than the defense budget, without taking into account the fact that NATO countries spend ten times as much as Russia's military budget.
The parties agree on a militarization and armament unprecedented in the history of the federal republic, but they disagree on how to fund it. The CDU, the far-right AfD and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) are proposing drastic cuts in social spending. While the Social Democrats and Greens are in favor of borrowing, they do not rule out an austerity alliance with the CDU. The political scientist Christoph Buterweg fears a direct attack on the "welfare state."
Years ago, Germany's new militarism was ruled out, and more recently coincided with a change in political culture. Posters for the Social Democratic elections show Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, calling for a "good army for war by 2029," wearing combat equipment and a weapon in his hand. It's a stunning transformation for a party whose policy of openness to the Soviets has earned its leader Willy Brandt the Nobel Peace Prize !
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Mazen Al Najjar - Researcher in History and Sociology.
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