The success of the deception strategy depends on Trump's ability to deceive the Iranians into believing that a huge monster is surrounding them. There is no reason to believe that Tehran will be deceived.
Afrasianet - Mazen Al Najjar - The recent flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz seems to be done at Iran's behest! In an interview with energy analyst Rory Johnston, Michael Brohhard, KPLER's chief policy and geopolitical risk officer, suggested that some countries are paying Iran a fee of 20 percent of the value of each shipment.
John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago and the star of the structuralist realist school of international relations, notes in his blog "John Sebastak" that the Trump administration and its supporters have been making strenuous efforts lately to falsify the facts of the Iran war, to show the administration victorious, and that Tehran must submit to its demands before defeat or annihilation. Trump is preparing for the option of using military force against Iran after the midterm elections if it does not surrender by then.
While Trump and his supporters are waging a "maximum pressure campaign" against Iran in the mainstream media, Mearsheimer asserts that this campaign will fail. It reflects the desperation of the Trump administration. The president has started a war that he was bound to lose, and now he has little to do to change this self-evident fact.
A two-dimensional campaign
Trump's campaign consists of two dimensions: one economic and one military.
First, the administration claims that Iran is being economically suffocated by the U.S. naval blockade coupled with Operation Economic Castaway, a strategy announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Besant on August 24, 2026. At the same time, it asserts that oil is flowing back from the Gulf at a rate that is not much lower than on February 27, 2026.
Trump's predictions are that economic punishment on Iran will soon force it to capitulate, while the U.S. — and the international economy in general — is on a steady pace toward recovery.
Second, the United States is currently ramping up its military forces in preparation for a large-scale military strike after the midterm elections, when Trump is freed from electoral restrictions. This growing threat of a devastating U.S. attack, coupled with the economic suffering inflicted on Iran, is aimed at pushing Tehran to withdraw from the confrontation now, before its situation worsens.
Mearsheimer sees that there are major problems with this strategy. It looks convincing when it is sincerely promoted by the mainstream media, but it falls apart when you scrutinize what is actually happening.
Considering the military dimension. Headlines suggest that the United States will send an additional 10,000 troops and a third aircraft carrier — Theodore Roosevelt — to the Gulf, suggesting that Iran will soon face three U.S. aircraft carriers. This additional number of troops — in addition to the roughly 50,000 U.S. troops already in the region — is evidence that Trump is seriously considering sending ground troops.
Iran's War Fatigues U.S. Navy
But the story of the aircraft carriers is quite different from what the headlines suggest. The Roosevelt aircraft carrier is said to be replacing the George Washington, while the supposed third aircraft carrier, George W. Bush, has already left the Middle East and is now in Thailand. Thus, there is currently only one aircraft carrier in the region. In fact, this is the first time during the war that the United States has only one aircraft carrier left in the Middle East, and it is hard to imagine having more than two—if any—after the midterm elections.
The biggest problem, Mearsheimer says, is that the war with Iran is severely straining the U.S. Navy. Its top commanders warn that the current pace of operations is unsustainable indefinitely. Aircraft carriers and other warships rotate on extremely long missions, causing them significant maintenance and readiness problems that need to be addressed in a timely manner.
This problem is exacerbated by the loss of access to nearby supply facilities by U.S. ships and their increasing reliance on a supply chain that stretches to Diego Garcia, 4,000 kilometers from the Gulf.
But even if three aircraft carriers are available to strike Iran, what can be achieved with a new air campaign that the failed U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign of 40 days between February 28 and April 8, 2026, did not?
Some might argue that the United States is capable of destroying Iran's oil infrastructure. But Iran still has the ability to strike a second blow, and it can retaliate by inflicting massive destruction on the oil infrastructure of the Gulf states. Thinking about the consequences for the global economy is chilling.
U.S. troop numbers are misleading
In addition , Mearsheimer recalls that the United States faces a severe shortage of advanced weapons and munitions, as a major reason why it has to end a 40-day bombing campaign and avoid engaging in a similar bombing exchange with Iran later. One would think that a shortage of vital munitions — to strike Iran or defend against a response — would limit the scope and intensity of any new strategic bombing campaign, thereby reducing its chances of success.
In terms of ground forces, the mere count of U.S. military personnel in the Middle East is misleading when assessing the possibility of sending ground troops. What matters in ground warfare is the number of troops in the actual ground combat formations. Mearsheimer estimates that of the roughly 50,000 U.S. military personnel currently stationed in the region, about 5,000 belong to these formations: 2,200 Marines and sailors from the 11th Marine Division, 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division, and possibly another 800 military personnel in Kuwait within Task Force Spartan.
Of the approximately 10,000 additional personnel currently being sent to the region, another 2,200 are from the 13th Marine Corps Unit. Most of the rest are sailors attached to the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt and its supporting warships. Thus, given current deployment plans, Mearsheimer estimates that by late November the Pentagon will have about 7,500 personnel in ground combat formations in the Gulf region—including 4,400 in two Marine reconnaissance units and 2,800 in the Army.
Ineffective ground force
So, according to Mearsheimer, there is no way that a ground force of this small size could be a promising option against a country the size of Iran in population and terrain. Even if that number tripled to 23,000 — which is highly unlikely — it would not change the crux of the problem.
Retired General Barry McCaffrey estimates that securing the Strait of Hormuz will require about 150,000 troops and between three and six months of fighting. By comparison, Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 with about 190,000 troops, and this force proved insufficient to control territory initially occupied by Russia. Iran has a population more than twice that of Ukraine at the start of the Russian invasion, and its terrain is far more rugged for a gas army.
Simply put, the United States has not prepared any ground force that can match, even remotely, the strength needed for a large-scale invasion of Iran. Indeed, Tehran believes that a U.S. decision to launch such an attack, with any force comparable to the forces currently available, would give it a chance to confront the United States in exceptionally favorable circumstances.
Although this topic may seem repetitive, two additional points must be addressed:
First, given how discontent the American public is with the Iran war, there will almost certainly be outrage if a large number of American soldiers return home dead.
Second, how are Marines, stationed on amphibious landing ships, supposed to land on Iranian soil if the threat of Iranian missiles and drones forces the U.S. Navy to keep these large, fragile ships off Iran's coast?
No capitulation to economic pressure
In the economic dimension, Mearsheimer argues that the United States is undoubtedly doing serious damage to Iran's economy and causing immense suffering to the Iranian people. But it is a long-standing situation. The most important question is: Can this punishment force Iran to capitulate to U.S. demands?
Mearsheimer sees no evidence that Iran is succumbing to U.S. pressure, and there are three reasons to doubt it:
First, it is extremely difficult to find in history a situation in which economic blockade alone led to the surrender of a target country.
Second, Iran sees the United States and Israel as an existential threat, which is not surprising given Trump's inflammatory rhetoric when talking about Iran, and countries that believe their survival is at stake to compel them to capitulate.
Third, Iran has a strong escalatory option if the economic crisis worsens: it can attack the oil and gas infrastructure of the Gulf states and Israel, as well as highly sensitive desalination plants.
In short, it is hard to imagine that economic pressure alone will force Iran to accept Trump's terms. This is perhaps one of the reasons why the United States is talking about the use of military force again. But it is an option that does not bode well.
Finally, there is no doubt that the flow of oil from the Gulf today is greater than it was in early September 2026. But Iran and the Houthis are making a concerted effort to reverse this trend. Iran is launching daily attacks on oil tankers escorted by U.S. warships, while the Houthis are targeting critical oil infrastructure inside Saudi Arabia.
The Fate of the Deception Strategy
Despite the increase in oil flows from the Gulf, gasoline prices remain very high, and there are no signs of a breakthrough for a host of other economic problems, such as rising diesel prices, persistent inflation, rising mortgage rates, and dangerously high bond yields in much of the West.
The bottom line, according to Mearsheimer, is that the Trump administration has strong economic incentives to end this war as quickly as possible. It is not surprising that a sense of despair is growing among Trump and his advisers in their closed-door sessions.
This, of course, partly explains why the Trump administration and its allies are waging a media campaign aimed at convincing Iran that its days are numbered, and that it is better to comply with America's demands sooner. But the facts show otherwise.
The success of the deception strategy depends on Trump's ability to deceive the Iranians into believing that a huge monster is surrounding them. There is no reason to believe that Tehran will be deceived.
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