With the weakness of the old "financial" system, there is an opportunity to build a national economic system based on productive activity, national development, and human prosperity.
Afrasianet - Mazen Al Najjar - Eight decades after the end of World War II, with its horrors and repercussions, and the inclusion of Europe under the "American peace", in the shadow of bipolarity, the Cold War, the balance of nuclear terror, and then American unipolarity, and after a boom under the umbrella of NATO and the European Union, the old continent has returned to its original course: conflicts, militarization, wars, economic decline and political chaos.
In a report for the blog Greater Eurasia, after a trip through Siberia and Moscow, former British diplomat and intelligence officer Alastair Crook argues that Russia is stable, and that its internal transformation is continuing. He emphasizes the need to understand it as a diverse and sprawling Eurasian country, not just from the perspective of Moscow and St. Petersburg. Siberia has distinct cultures, languages, and religious traditions, including Buryat and Altai cultures, Tibet-influenced Buddhism, and established shamanic elements.
Diversity is part of an ongoing Russian process of defining the meaning of Russian identity; this fact is reflected in the country's motto, "Two-Headed Eagle," heading east and west. Russia is working to unify its cultural and ethnic components, not because it is in a fundamental conflict, but because the formation of a broader Russian identity is an ongoing process.
Kruk notes that the daily situation in Russia is showing remarkable stability. Despite Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure and energy facilities, he has encountered few problems with fuel supply during his flights, except for limited difficulties in Novosibirsk. Drone attacks have become routine and temporary airport closures are routine.
The End of the Former World Order
For Kroc, Russia's understanding of the international order has changed considerably. There is little reason for it to believe that serious dialogues with Washington or European governments will resolve the fundamental conflict.
The central issue is the shift in the Western approach to international affairs. The previous focus on common legal principles, norms, morals, and a common civilizational heritage has been replaced by hatred. Sanctions and tariffs, pressure to maintain the dominance of the dollar, and military operations against countries such as Iran are manifestations of the coercive approach.
This has important implications for multipolarity. Sovereign civilizations facing extreme hostility cannot build a cooperative, open, multipolar political system under these circumstances. Rather, multipolarity is likely to become primarily defensive: developing alternative financial systems, reducing dependence on the dollar, and creating structures to deter external pressures.
Crook argues that the West has undergone a profound shift in its understanding of international ethics and politics. Western societies have lost old "foundational narratives" that have formed frameworks for understanding moral issues.
In particular, he diagnoses a shift toward what he calls an increasingly "dualistic" (Manichaean) worldview, which divides the world into absolute "good and evil." America's previous conception of itself as a "utopia on a mountain," a project of salvation for humanity, has gradually given way to a policy of confrontation and coercion.
This change has exacerbated the inability to understand opposing views and made diplomacy more difficult.
Europe and the prospects for escalation
Kroc is deeply concerned about what he sees as a rapid growth of war rhetoric across Europe. Public messages urging Europeans to prepare for war, discussions about military service, and repeated warnings of an imminent confrontation with Russia.
He wonders why European governments are resorting to rhetoric of escalation, when Europe lacks the manpower, military infrastructure, and production and supply systems needed for a major war. European elites may be trying to deflect attention from serious economic and energy problems, with the driving forces behind this shift unclear.
But Russia cannot ignore these developments. Moscow is therefore preparing for the possibility of escalation, while trying to rein in destructive forces that could produce a broader conflict.
Stanislav Krapivnik, a former Russian U.S. Army officer in Ukraine's Donbas region who returned to Russia 15 years ago, asserts that Europe is heading toward a direct war with Russia as its economic and industrial bases weaken. European leaders are more inclined to war because domestic problems are difficult to solve.
The consequences will be particularly dire in northern Europe. Food shortages, high fuel prices, and poor reserves could lead to famine and social unrest. Europe lacks the industrial capacity to fight a large-scale conventional war, and will rely more on America for arms.
According to Krapivnik, Russia is seriously preparing for a major war with Europe, although it does not want it. He points to the significant expansion of Russian military production, and that Russia possesses capabilities that are difficult for European countries to keep up.
Ukraine and greater risks
Kruk notes that Ukraine is approaching a critical point. He points to damage to energy infrastructure, fuel supply, railways, logistics, and warehouses, along with growing economic difficulties and problems in the Ukrainian bond market.
According to economic analyst Alexander Kreiner, Ukraine and Europe are facing dire consequences, as their financial system has become dependent on deteriorating economic relations. The loss of Ukraine as a future source of economic income means that European institutions will have to provide increasing amounts of liquidity in order to maintain the system. This leads to further currency depreciation, inflation, and monetary collapse.
The bond market's problems cannot currently be understood through traditional financial explanations. The timing of market movements shows the crucial role of geopolitics. The sharp decline in the bond market, which began in 2021, coincided with the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, while the recovery in US Treasury bond prices stalled after the start of Trump's war on Iran in February 2026.
The deeper problem is that Western financial institutions have accumulated financial assets that are guaranteed by economic activity and cash flows from countries and regions outside Western control. Loans to countries such as Ukraine and countries in the Middle East have been backed by revenues from oil, gas, grain, and other resources. As these flows weaken, their secured financial assets have become more vulnerable.
These pressures create dangerous divisions, while Western governments have not prepared their people well for the economic consequences. The resulting pressures appear to encourage further escalation rather than restraint.
Krabivnik asserts that Russia is not seeking negotiations because it has lost its trust in European governments. Repeated European support for Ukraine and continued preparations for a confrontation have convinced Moscow not to trust agreements with European countries.
The balance of war has shifted dramatically. Russia can launch broader attacks, while European countries lack the industrial capacity to replace military equipment and munitions to the extent required. As a result, continued European pressure will not force Russia to make concessions, but will increase the risk of a wider war.
According to Kroc, Russia's current position remains stable, strengthened, and prepared. Moscow is not seeking war with Europe, but is preparing for the possibility of further escalation of European and Western policies. Thus, the central danger is not an inevitable Russian attack, but the possibility that the increasing policies of coercion, rhetoric of escalation, and deteriorating conditions push the confrontation into a more dangerous phase.
Disaster risk
On the other hand, Krapivnik warns that a war between Russia and Europe could quickly turn into a catastrophe even without nuclear weapons. He asserts that modern missile technology is capable of destroying critical infrastructure in minutes, and that the interruption of electricity, gas, transport and food supplies will make it very difficult to maintain areas in northern Europe during the winter.
It asserts that Russia's sophisticated missile systems are capable of striking critical infrastructure deep in Europe, and the consequences will far exceed military targets. Nuclear escalation will greatly exacerbate these consequences.
Therefore, Krapivnik argues that Europeans must realize the magnitude of the danger before a clash becomes inevitable. There is time to avoid such an outcome, he argues, but the increasing normalization of war rhetoric and military preparations are pushing Europe into a direct and dangerous confrontation with Russia.
What kind of civilization will future generations inherit? The national economic system and development, as in China and Russia, can create prosperity, creativity, and social stability, allowing individuals to develop their productive capacities. The free-market model influenced by international capital exacerbates the current inequality, declining purchasing power, social degradation and militarization.
The current bond crisis represents both a great risk and a great opportunity. With the old "financial" system weakening, the opportunity to build a national economic system based on productive activity, national development, and human prosperity looms.
________________
Mazen Al Najjar - Writer, researcher, and translator in history and sociology
