Afrasianet - Dr. Abdullah Khalifa Al-Shayji* - Two weeks later, on May 21, Keegan returned to continue his criticism of the Trump administration's war in a second article in The Atlantic, after the "Checkmates in Iran" article — to write an article this week titled "The Last Stop of Trump's War Is Surrender."
In a war of miscalculations and miscalculations of the situation — and even if President Trump carries out "showy final strikes" — the reality is Trump prefers to declare victory and withdraw under the guise of an agreement that saves faces for both parties.
It is clear that Kagan's articles "checkmate" and "surrender" and the repercussions of the Trump-Netanyahu war on Iran are the failure to topple the regime and turn Iran into the Western camp.
This leads to a lot of reviews. It shows the limitations of power – confuses allies and comforts adversaries. It shakes confidence in Trump, who can wage wars but is unable to resolve them, despite the surplus and disparity of American power, compared to Iran's limited military and economic capabilities.
Worse, the U.S.-Israel war has strengthened Iran's prestige and influence with the IRGC's control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran dared to form a body that manages, regulates and imposes fees on the crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, and to expand the maritime border to distances that threaten the sovereignty of the maritime waters of the maritime emirate of Fujairah.
The UAE's use of the strategic Habshan-Fujairah port pipeline is hampered. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's bombing of oil and gas facilities, oil and gas refineries, vital power and water distillation plants, airports, and vital civilian targets, have led to a major disruption in energy exports.
Does this reflect negatively on petrodollar revenues, the economic situation, and the revenues of Gulf allies? On the supply and security of energy, and on the American and global economy.
I argue that Iran's disruption of Gulf and Iraqi oil exports – convinces Iran that its tight grip on the Strait of Hormuz card – is more important and effective than raising uranium enrichment to 60% – and more important than Iran's current nuclear program, because it strengthens Iran's weight and weight regionally and globally.
In a war of miscalculations and miscalculations, the reality is that Trump prefers to declare victory and withdraw under the guise of a face-saving agreement
Keegan's harsh criticism of the Trump administration-Israel war on Iran by conservative writers gains a great advantage, as they are conservatives, believers, and advocates of the prolongation of American hegemony over the world order, which gives them qualitative weight and demonstrates the magnitude of the predicament in which the Trump administration found itself.
Keegan is not from the far left like Senator Bernie Sanders, and "realistic" political scientists like Professor Merchheimer, Professor Walt and Professor Bibb.
In particular, Keegan belongs to the neoconservative mentality – advocates of preemptive wars, and American hegemony that led Bush Jr. to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It brought Trump to the quagmire of Iran's war at the instigation of Netanyahu.Keegan-warns the Trump administration against facing a complete defeat that cannot be changed and ignored! "This is due to the inability to restore the crossing through the Strait of Hormuz as it was before the war.
This deficit does not prove the limitation of the strongest US military power in the world, but rather strengthens the status and role of Iran-China and Russia's allies.
Remarkable was the modest harvest with which President Trump returned from his important visit to China. Chinese President Trump's warning, by imposing his red lines, not to repeat the mistake of Sparta (America today the dominant power) from escalating against the rising power (Greece-China today) so as not to fall into the trap of Thucydides – and also not to provide Taiwan with the arms deal!
The repercussions of the war on Iran have a negative impact on the U.S. interior, and even on Trump's Republican Party, its supporters and his base of the divided MAGA faction amid large and deep divisions and anger.
The repercussions of the war with the rise in prices and the cost of living at all levels. This prompted Republican lawmakers to criticize and start defections within Trump's party. Especially after the division and tussle within the party after Trump's inciting against conservative Republican Rep.
Massey to ensure his defeat for his opposition to the war on Iran and his demand for the publication of the Epstein files. Trump also removed Republican Senator Bill Cassidy from Louisiana for his differences with him, and supported his rival, who defeated him in the primary!! In doing so, Trump proposes himself as the leader of the Republican Party and turns the party into an obedient follower.
It makes Trump closer to a totalitarian ruler. It excludes, retaliates and intimidates opponents of its policies and positions, both internal and external.
* Professor at the Department of Political Science, Kuwait University
