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"A terrifying story".. Moldova reveals the reason for its decision not to join NATO
Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Bubchoi has already announced that his country is not yet considering joining NATO due to the lack of sufficient support from the population.
In an interview with RTVI, Boubachoy said the majority of the population views NATO as a "terrifying story."
"At the moment, there is no talk of joining or any closer cooperation other than what we have done so far," he added.
With a population of just 2.6 million and an economy among the smallest in Europe, Moldova barely meets most EU standards. Still, the tiny former Soviet republic sandwiched between EU member Romania and war-torn Ukraine has attracted considerable attention from the continent's influential democratic powers.
What is happening between Moldova, Russia and Europe?
Moldova's pro-European government held a referendum on EU membership on October 20, opening the way for it to join the bloc. Moldova narrowly voted to join the bloc, with only 50.5% in favour.
History of the conflict
Moldova was a republic in the Soviet Union, and its people established deep social ties with Russia that continue to this day. Most of Moldova's population speaks Romanian, the official language, and Russian.
The connection is particularly represented in two regions of Moldova: the Russian-controlled enclave of Transnistria and the Gagauzia Autonomous Region, which is led by pro-Russian officials.
Over the past three decades, Moldova has oscillated between the EU and Russia, with different politicians trying to influence voters with promises to improve living conditions in a country classified as one of Europe's poorest.
Moldova has made significant progress towards joining the European Union, gaining candidate status in 2022 and officially starting accession talks in 2024. The shift has yielded results, with Moldova now directing more than 90% of its exports to the EU, mostly agricultural products.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in October that the EU would allocate a record €1.8 billion over the next three years to support the country's plan to join the bloc.
Why is Moldova's fate important to European security?
Moldova is at a strategic crossroads, and a potential pro-Russian government in the country may be expanding Russia's influence beyond parts of Ukraine to the border with Romania.
For the EU, Moldova's inclusion would send a message that the bloc remains a successful and expanding economic alliance, a deterrent to Europe's increasingly popular far-right nationalist forces.
Why is Russia interested in Transnistria?
Transnistria, with a population of about 400,000 people, is one of several regions in the former Soviet republics where Russia has strong influence, with others including Crimea, the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine and the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia.
Unilaterally self-proclaimed leaders of Transnistria declared independence from Moldova in 1990. So far, no UN member has recognized that statehood demand, including Russia.
Moscow has had troops in the Russian-speaking enclave since the early 1990s and says its main tasks are peacekeeping and the protection of ammunition depots.
None of the UN members have recognized Transnistria's independence, including Russia, despite its support for the separatist boycott.
Transnistria gives Russia some economic leverage over Moldova, and while the latter has ended its dependence on Russian gas with the help of EU countries, including neighboring Romania, it relies on Transnistria for about 90 percent of its electricity needs.
Pro-EU President Maia Sandhu has vowed to redouble anti-corruption efforts and accelerate judicial reforms in the country in the face of foreign interference.
If successful, these moves will also boost Moldova's prospects for EU accession, as joining the bloc requires Moldova to demonstrate that it has stable institutions and can guarantee democracy and the rule of law. The EU and the United States are also helping Moldova strengthen its cybersecurity.
Moldova and Armenia... Can Russia's two small neighbors dream of economic independence?
In response to a journalist's question in December 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at his annual press conference: "Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe, if the poorest country in Europe, which gets cheap energy from us, wants to follow Germany's example and get energy from the United States at a price that is 30 percent higher, then it is free to do so.
As for Armenia, there are complex processes... I don't think it's in their interest to terminate their membership in the Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization."
His response was confident—he stated that Moldova had offered no value to their economic relations, and that Armenia would only suffer if it tried to secede.
Is gas the new wine of Moldova?
Energy has long been Russia's trump card when it comes to Europe's arm. While Russia's military operation in Ukraine in 2022 prompted many European countries to find alternative solutions, Moldova was forced to do so as the end of 2024 approached.
Russia's state-owned company Gazprom stopped supplying gas through Ukraine starting January 1, 2025, after Ukraine refused to renew its transit contract.
The company chose not to supply through the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline through Turkey, citing that Moldova has an unpaid debt of $11.1 billion, which the Moldovan government denies.
But Moldova's energy situation is more complicated than just supplying gas to homes and businesses. The Kuchurgan power plant is located in the Russian-backed province of Transnistria.
Transnistria has been receiving gas from Gazprom for free for almost 20 years (its debt is officially listed under Moldova's account, which explains the discrepancy above) and has been using it to generate electricity that Moldova buys from at cheaper prices than the European market.
But with the gas supply interrupted, work on the Kuchurgan power plant stopped, forcing Moldova to buy Electricity from Romania at much higher prices affects its economy.
The European Commission has intervened with a comprehensive two-year strategy and a €250 million package to "separate Moldova from the insecurity of Russian energy supplies and fully integrate them into the EU energy market".
The strategy aims to support household electricity in 2025 with a budget of €15 million, financial assistance for food farming companies and industrial companies, and €50 million for investments in sustainable energy. It also includes a €60 million offer to support Transnistria.
This should be familiar to the Kremlin because history repeats itself. In 2006, Russia banned Moldovan wine for reasons that many considered political.
At the time, it seemed like a severe blow, because 80 percent of the country's wine is exported to Russia. The ban was lifted in 2007 but was reimposed again in 2013, apparently for political reasons.
But Moldovan winemakers have learned their lesson: this time, they cut off 28 percent of wine exports. Only. Today, the EU is the largest market for Moldovan wine, accounting for only about 10 percent of exports to Russia.
This shift has boosted the country's wine production. "Having to find new and more selective consumers has led to a significant rise in quality," said wine expert Justin Keaye, adding that about 20% of the country's population is now directly or indirectly employed in the industry.
Moldova's Election Year and Challenges
In the year of Moldova's main parliamentary elections, tensions are high given how close the results are in the 2024 presidential election, although the results ultimately resulted in a pro-European referendum and ensured President Maia Sandu remained in office. The Moldovan Foreign Ministry claimed that Russia "illegally and deliberately interfered" in that election .
With the increase in political tensions in Eastern Europe, relations between countries are no longer reflected only in diplomatic positions, but are now reflected in the details of daily life, including travel and mobility, and in this context, the features of an escalating crisis between Russia andMoldova are unfolding, reflecting the depth of political and geopolitical differences between the two sides.
The escalation of the crisis began with the Russian Foreign Ministry issuing an official recommendation urging Russian citizens to avoid travel to Moldova, citing what it said was an increasing number of cases of discrimination, unjustified harassment and ill-treatment of Russian citizens at the hands of Moldovan authorities.
The problems begin on arrival at the airport in the capital Chisinau, where Russian passport holders are subjected to "humiliating" inspection procedures, she said, adding that Moldovan authorities deliberately detain Russian citizens during security checks when they leave Chisinau, ensuring that they miss their flights.
Confrontational rhetoric
Despite the historical ties between the two countries, Russian-Moldovan relations are going through their deepest crisis since 1992, in light of the escalation of tensions against the background of what Moscow considers to be Chisinau's pro-Western policies and support for Ukraine, as well as the file of the Transnistrian region and the Russian military presence in it, in addition to the accumulated differences in the fields of energy and economy.
These tensions have been exacerbated by Moldova's geopolitical reorientation, with the government increasingly focusing on integration with the European Union, including a formal application to join it, in exchange for an almost complete break with Moscow.
Moldova's support for Ukraine, along with the ban on Russian media broadcasting inside the country, has also contributed to deepening the climate of mistrust and hostility between the two parties, to the point that Russia classifies Moldova as an "enemy state," while Chisinau views Moscow as a threat to its security and sovereignty.
With bilateral relations deteriorating, Moldova is facing the largest trade deficit in its history, amounting to about $6.4 billion, equivalent to nearly a third of the size of its economy, along with severe crises in the energy sector, as well as a worsening political crisis linked to President Maia Sandu's plans to rapproche with Romania.
Relations between the two countries witnessed a sharp media confrontation during the recent parliamentary elections in Moldova, as Moscow accused the Moldovan authorities of denying the right to vote for about 500,000 Moldovan citizens residing in Russia, as they were allocated one polling station, with only 10,000 ballot papers provided.
In this context, the proportion of citizens of Russian origin in Moldova (excluding the Transnistrian region) has fallen to between 3.2% and 3.4% of the total population, compared to 4.1% in 2014.
There are an estimated 220,000 Russian nationals in Moldova, most of whom – around 160,000 – reside in the internationally unrecognized region of Transnistria.
According to European affairs expert Andrei Kamkin, the situation of Russians in Moldova is directly related to the current state of relations between Moscow and Chisinau, in light of the continued polarization within Moldovan society between pro-European government policies and the interests of Russian-speaking groups that call for maintaining balanced relations with Russia.
By harassing Russians, the Moldovan authorities are seeking to sever ties with Moscow, including cultural ties, Kamkin said, noting that this is reflected in the cancellation of the "Russian House" agreement, which are Russian government representative offices dedicated to promoting Russian culture, language and science abroad.
He adds that Moldova has become a pivotal arena in the geopolitical confrontation between Russia and the West, after completely abandoning the policy of balancing European integration and maintaining relations with Moscow.
According to Kamkin, Moldova is showing the fastest pace of readiness to join the European Union, especially after the parliamentary elections held in September 2025, where the denial of voting to Moldovans residing in Russia contributed to the victory of pro-European integration forces with a majority of seats.
The price of a merger
International affairs analyst Dmitry Kim believes that Chisinau's political path is being shaped under strong pressure from the United States and the European Union, and poses a direct threat to Russian interests and influence in the region.
Kim says that the Moldovan authorities are acting in the interests of Western countries seeking to create an "anti-Russian foothold" on the border with Ukraine, especially in light of President Sandu's pro-Western and anti-Russian tendencies.
He considers Chisinau's hostile policies toward Moscow to be a "price or a sacrifice" for the path of integration into the European Union and NATO, which, in his words, constitutes a direct challenge to the country's constitutionally enshrined principle of neutrality.
In Kim's view, Russia's policy of "demonizing" is deliberately used to divert public attention from domestic economic crises and energy problems, and to cover up the process of excluding Moscow from the Moldovan scene, at a time when Chisinau sees itself as part of the security belt surrounding Ukraine.
He warns that Moldova's ambitions to join the European Union and NATO could lead to a direct confrontation with Russia, explaining that this scenario becomes even more dangerous if the pro-Western leadership tries to resolve the Transnistria conflict by force, through what he calls "forced reintegration" with Western support, which would weaken Russia's position in the Black Sea region.
It may seem strange that a small country like Moldova, located between Ukraine and Romania, has in recent years become the focus of a heated diplomatic and geopolitical confrontation between the EU andRussia.
Despite its small size and weak capabilities compared to its neighbors, Moldova has now become a testing ground for the balance of power in Eastern Europe, where every official statement or move, whether from Brussels or Moscow, has a direct impact on the country's future and stability.
Moldova between Brussels and Moscow
According to a report published by the French newspaper Le Monde, the government of Maia Sandhu has adopted a clear approach based on strengthening ties with Brussels, considering that engagement in the European project is the main guarantee of the country's political, economic and security stability.
This trend has been exemplified by the intensification of multilateral bilateral meetings between Moldova and EU institutions, as well as ongoing moves in the Council of Europe and NATO.
On the European side, Brussels has expressed its readiness to accelerate the negotiations on Moldova's accession, provided a package of economic and technical assistance to support the institutional infrastructure, including in the areas of energy, justice and public administration, and intensified its presence in Chisinau through the visits of high-level delegations from the European Commission and the European Parliament, as part of strengthening the political commitment to the country's integration into the European space.
On the other hand, Russia has used counter-diplomatic tools in the form of repeated statements issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry, warning of the "strategic consequences" of Moldova's accession to the European Union, considering it a threat to regional stability and the exclusion of Moscow from its traditional sphere of influence.
Moscow focused on reviving the discourse of historical and cultural ties with Moldova, noting the importance of cooperation in the fields of energy and trade, and using the Transnistria file as a pressure card on Chisinau.
Moldovan diplomacy also intersected with international files, through meetings at the United Nations and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), where Russia focused on the rights of the Russian-speaking population, while Brussels showed interest in the democratic and sovereign aspect of the Chisinau options, making the conflict at the international level reflect the great division between Western powers and Russia.
The Moldovan government has also sought to forge an independent political line that strengthens European identity by engaging in the continent's institutions, avoiding direct confrontation with Russia, and maintaining open channels of communication in the fields of energy and trade. However, Moscow still views this approach as a strategic deviation from the Eurasian sphere.
The European Union has launched security cooperation programs with Moldova focused on fighting corruption and protecting borders, while Moscow has linked these measures to an attempt to lure the country toward NATO.
Russia has also used its influence as a major source of gas and oil to send direct pressure messages, while the European Union, in cooperation with Romania, has sought to secure energy alternatives through interconnection projects and gas lines transit from Central Europe, giving the Moldovan government greater room to move diplomatically.
In addition, major European capitals such as Paris and Berlin participated in the file, each according to its own strategy, as France focused on supporting the stability of Eastern Europe, and Germany on building economic partnerships to protect Moldova from Russian pressure, which was reflected internally in Chisinau as an additional guarantee for its diplomatic path.
The recent election victory of the pro-EU party has boosted the confidence of the Moldovan leadership to move towards Brussels, giving it a greater ability to address its European partners, with a clear message to Moscow that Moldovan public opinion is moving towards the European option.
Between internal division and external pressures
Moldova's domestic politics is deeply divided between two main currents, one of which supports strengthening ties with the European Union and focuses on institutional reforms to ensure the country's future, while the other tends to maintain historical ties with Russia, focusing on social and cultural balance and regional security considerations.
These divisions are not new, but are an extension of a long history of tensions between eastern and western Moldova, which have deepened in recent years as a result of the conflict in Ukraine and economic challenges, making the Moldovan interior a highly sensitive environment that determines Chisinau's ability to make stable sovereign decisions.
In a report published by the British newspaper The Guardian, it stressed that Moldova faces significant obstacles in its path to the European Union, such as economic pressures and the need for large-scale internal reforms, despite the success of the pro-EU party in the recent elections.
The report shows that the internal division is not limited to party politics but extends to the country's geographical and social structure, with the pro-Moscow base concentrated in the eastern regions near Transnistria, while major cities such as Chisinau tend to support the European orientation, making forming a stable parliamentary majority a major challenge for the government.
The challenges are not only geographically divided, but also include the resistance of government institutions to some reforms, especially in the security and judicial services, which still maintain historical ties with Russia.
This reality makes new policies related to European integration more difficult to implement and complicates the government's ability to enforce reforms quickly and effectively, especially when it faces public pressure from groups opposed to the changes or questioning Brussels' intent.
The media is divided between a pro-European discourse that focuses on reform and the fight against corruption, and a discourse that warns of the potential dangers of European involvement, which creates an environment of polarization that makes public opinion vulnerable to external influences, and exacerbates divisions between political currents.
The existence of religious ties with the Orthodox Churches linked to Moscow supports the traditional orientation and opposes some European policies, making it more difficult to unify national identity and balance values between different affiliations.
The biggest challenge lies in the government's ability to balance different internal trends and protect the state's interests from external pressures, whether from Brussels or Moscow, as every step toward European reform or openness must take into account the sensitivity of internal divisions and the ability to avoid exacerbating frictions between different currents, while ensuring the stability of state institutions and their ability to respond to crises.
Foreign economic relations are also an additional factor in political complexity. Moldova's trade relations with Russia include vital resources such as gas and energy, and any change in European policies could lead to economic pressure from Moscow.
European commitments require drastic economic reforms that may be painful in the short term, such as adjusting subsidy policies or improving budget transparency, making the internal conflict over economic and political interest continue.
The previous report notes that the Moldovan government faces a major challenge in engaging civil society in the reform process, as society is divided between pro-European and demanding greater transparency and accountability, and conservative groups that believe that excessive bias towards Europe could threaten social stability and national identity.
This division forces the political leadership to adopt careful communication strategies with the community to ensure adequate public support and to stay away from any step that might impede the implementation of reforms.However, its geographical and political location makes it an open arena for attraction between two opposing projects:
• The European Integration Project that promises reform and democracy.
• and the project of Russian influence, which is based on history, geography and energy.
The current political moment is a difficult test for Moldova, not only in the outcome of the elections or the balance of power in parliament, but also in a web of external pressures that each side seeks to exert on Chisinau.
Russia views Moldova as part of its biosphere and sees any rapprochement with the EU as a direct threat to its influence in the region. In contrast, Brussels sees Moldova's reform trajectory as part of a broader strategy to counter Russian influence on its eastern border.
Moldova's journey between these two options was not just an internal political process, but a test of its ability to stay at the heart of a turbulent geopolitical equation: the EU requires sweeping reforms in areas such as the judiciary, administrative transparency, and the fight against corruption, requirements that place the government with additional burdens and put it in direct confrontation with internal forces that are reluctant or unwilling to change.
This example highlights that the conflict is not limited to official decisions, but extends to the daily life of the Moldovan citizen, as while the EU promises better economic opportunities in the long term, many fear higher prices and declining social subsidies as a result of the reforms.
Russia, on the other hand, presents itself as the protector of local traditions and culture, and this fragile balance shows how external pressures can become an internal burden that deepens social division, as the citizen finds himself at the center of a complex equation: between aspirations for a modern European future based on institutions and reform, and traditional ties with Russia linked to economics, religion, and culture.
The contradiction is not only read in parliament or in decision-making circles, but is reflected in daily debates, in the media, and in family and social situations.
At the same time, the security dimension of this equation cannot be overlooked, as the presence of the pro-Russian region of Transnistria is a constant pressure factor on Chisinau.
The region, which has a symbolic Russian military presence, is constantly reminded that any political move toward Brussels could be met with security tensions or even attempts at destabilization, and the challenge becomes even clearer: how can a small country like Moldova manage this delicate balance without losing its sovereignty or becoming an arena of open conflict?
Will Moldova be the next arena of confrontation between Russia and the West?
At a time when the world's eyes are on Ukraine and the developments of the war, the country of Moldova is on one foot due to the political polarization among Moscow's supporters on its soil, while the country's president, Maia Sando's strong ambitions to lead her country to join the European Union, are dominated by uncertainty.
But it seems that the road will not be paved with flowers for Sandu at a time when the region is undergoing dangerous geopolitical shifts and a twist of arm between Moscow and the West, reminiscent of the Cold War era, the Cuban missile crisis and the dangers of nuclear war.
After previous rounds of undeclared political conflict on Georgian territory and then the war in Ukraine, will Moldova be the next battleground between Russia and the West?
Moldova's Message
Maya Sandow's rise to a second term represents a message from the former Soviet state to outright turn to the Western camp and move away from Russian influence, but the narrow results of the October 2024 referendum on the vote to join the European Union gave a different indication that the goal would not be easy and could face bumps.
The vote in favor of accession by 50.43% indicates the government's desire to follow in the footsteps of its neighbor Romania and the Baltic states to get out of the Russian umbrella, as stated by Foreign Minister Mihai Popsui, but at the same time the result reflected the deep political polarization in the country.
The capital's desire to head to the Brussels camp is understandable, with about a third of its nearly 3 million inhabitants in the European bloc and a strong cultural connection to Western Europe.
The data also shows that 40% of Moldovans living abroad are between the ages of 30 and 44, while by 2030 more Moldovans are expected to be born abroad than in the country.
The minimum wage in Moldova, which covers an area of about 34,000 square kilometers, is equivalent to 261 euros per month, one of the lowest in Europe. An analysis by the independent think tank "Edis Viturul" showed that more than 200,000 Moldovans have left the country in the past four years, a record.
The €1.8 billion European support programme announced by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in mid-October 2024 – the largest funding the country has received since independence – will support the Moldovan government's plans provided that the required reforms are implemented.
But that is not enough to pave the way for Brussels' institutions, as the new government must pledge many reforms to meet European standards, including those related to human rights, as experts say the presence of dozens of political prisoners would be a major obstacle to Moldova's ambitions.
Why did 49% vote against joining?
Experts say the logical answer to this question is the unilaterally declared state of Transnistria on the border with Russia.
Transnistria is a pro-Moscow separatist region located in western Russia and on Moldova's eastern border with Ukraine, which declared independence in 1999.
Thirty years after the Dniester War, in which the Transnistrian army opposed the central government, no clear political outcome to the conflict has been reached, but the region is considered de facto independent.
Thirty-two years after the declaration of this state, the border dividing Moldova in half is still not recognized by the international community today, yet the separatist region – with its capital Tiraspol – has its own flag, local currency and private mining license plates for cars, while Soviet monuments including statues of the thinkers Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels clearly dominate public squares and spaces.
Moscow, which backs the breakaway region, maintains about 2,000 troops on its territory to keep it under its control and defend Russian interests.
James Nixey, an expert on Russia and Eurasia at Chatham House think tank, points out that Russia's deep influence in the breakaway region of Transnistria has previously made Moldova's membership in the European Union "very complicated, almost impossible."
Although the Moldovan constitution stipulates state neutrality, this has not stopped the government in the capital Chisinau from condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine since the start of the conflict in 2022.
The foreign minister stated that his country will not recognize any territory seized by the Russian army in Ukraine.
On the other hand, Moldova received about 120,000 Ukrainians, according to the authorities, where they benefited from health, education and labor market services, thanks to the activation of the European Union's Civil Protection Mechanism, which provided about 48 million euros in aid to the country.
Politically, however, the Russian special military operation in Ukraine raised Moldova's concerns about the fate of the breakaway region of Transnistria, as the region's authorities had previously demanded in 2006 to join Russia after a referendum that led to an overwhelming majority in support of accession, but Moldova did not recognize the results of the referendum, as did the international community, and the region formally revived its demands to the State Duma in 2014, following Russia's annexation of Ukrainian Crimea.
Otherwise, the region today represents a fundamental dilemma against Moldova's Western ambitions, not only because of Russian influence, but also because of the country's acceptance as a member of the bloc, which means that pro-Russian separatists can gain access to the EU space, which Brussels fears and rejects.
An analysis on Euronews suggests that there is a change of mood in Brussels, where officials now view the accession of Moldova and other candidate countries as a geopolitical imperative.
As a result, 10 countries are now waiting to join the European Union, including nine that have attained the status of an official candidate, and the President of the European Commission stated in a press statement that "the tense geopolitical context encourages us more than ever to complete the reunification of our continent, under the same values of democracy and the rule of law."
Contrary to that momentum, the annual assessment of candidate countries' accession reforms, unveiled by the European Commission last October, showed that none of the 10 countries had made significant progress.
Russia sees itself as the "big brother" of both Moldova and Armenia seeking to maintain its sphere of influence. With Donald Trump back in the White House, all eyes will turn to Ukraine, where the conditions for a possible end to the war could be crucial in determining Russia's economic and political influence in the coming years.
Another crucial factor is the role the new U.S. administration sees itself in this part of the world. If Trump decides that Russia must retain its sphere of influence, Moldova and Armenia could return to the Russian fold, and their ambitions for economic independence would become a thing of the past.
But the European hysteria against Russia and the fabrication of crises by the Baltic countries with Russia put these countries at a clear crossroads, while Europe believes that it can expand through NATO and other economic tools in Moldova and other Baltic countries, what happened with Ukraine can be repeated in one of these countries, Russia will not allow the threat to its national security, and the Baltic states and their supporters must pay attention to this issue, otherwise the region is heading towards a new war fueled by Atlantic ambitions against Russia.
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