Afrasianet - Abd Al Halim Qandil - In recent days, Iran's image has appeared to be more cohesive, while U.S. President Donald Trump has appeared to be scattered, inclined to borrow Iranian negotiating methods, demand reparations for America and others, and demand reparations for the destruction of America's wars. In Iran, the picture looked better, reflecting the cohesion of power and its rally around the outgoing Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who first appeared in a video with no time or place to go, and Iran's elected president, Masoud Bazeshkian, who had previously complained Coinciding with the lengthy meeting, Mojtaba issued a package of major decisions to reorganize the military and political situation, and official appointments of senior Basij and Revolutionary Guard commanders and the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, preceded by the selection of the Supreme Commander's representative in the National Security Council as Secretary-General, General Mohsen Rezaei, who spent 16 years as Commander of the Revolutionary Guards.
It is considered its most important institution, and it finally replaced its predecessor, Mohammad Baqer Zulfdar, with a different political and military weight, and in a position that is close to that of the assassinated Ali Larijani in the war.
As if Mojtaba wanted to present a new image of his subsequent administration over the administration of his late father, Ali Khamenei, and to confirm the connection of experience and accumulation, General Rezaei was as close to the elder Khamenei as Larijani, and Rezaei's new position in the leadership of the National Security Council presents him as a central element and decision-maker in the fields of war and negotiation with the Americans, and he is counted in Iran as one of the fathers of the hardline revolutionary current, and although the reformist Iranian President Zeshshkian is considered a protocol chairman of the National Security Council, the Secretary-General The Supreme Leader's delegate is the real authority, and the Supreme National Security Council is originally a framework created by Khamenei Sr. and made it a conglomerate of all military, political, and judicial powers and wings, and it is the supreme government compared to the government of the Iranian president, the weakest in the structure of the regime, whose center and pillar of the tent are the Supreme Leader.
Former US presidents have chosen to avoid a prolonged war with Iran, and Trump alone risked a false promise from Benjamin Netanyahu that everything Iranian will end in a matter of days.
While they are talking about Iranian-American negotiations taking place behind the curtain, and may appear in public soon, with the invitation of the Pakistani mediator to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to visit Islamabad, and with the Qatari mediator talking about the progress made by Iran's negotiations with the Sultanate of Oman, which also plays the role of mediator between Tehran and Washington, the negotiations or the exchange of messages do not necessarily seem to lead to the revival of the memorandum of understanding, which Trump departed from in word and deed, and he is only talking Tehran, as usual, seems less urgent, and apparently wants to build a full memorandum of understanding on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz alone.
And the actual marginalization of the issues of the nuclear program and others. Anyone who observes the Iranian statements, by Araqchi and the chief negotiator of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, and with them the list of conditions of the National Security Council for the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, believes that Iran wants to gradually differentiate between its agreement with Oman on the management of the strait, the opening of the strait and the possibility of freedom The most important of which is the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, the cessation of US sanctions on the export of Iranian oil and its derivatives, the unfreezing of Iran's assets, the cancellation of all US sanctions on Iran, the cessation of even verbal threats against Iran, the cessation of American-Israeli wars on all fronts, and the payment of full compensation for the destruction caused by the US aerial bombardment.
Trump does not seem to be stable in his endless gossip, as he has stopped threatening a fatal blow to Iran, which he no longer has the tools for, and for which the top generals in the US military are not resting, and as Dan Kaine, the chief of staff of the US armies, expressed in a closed meeting with Trump and his aides, major American newspapers published leaks about his facts, in which the top commander said The US military said that 50,000 airstrikes on Iran did not achieve what was required, and that their repetition would not achieve better results, and that the stockpiles of American offensive and defensive missiles have decreased sharply, and the meaning of what a Zahir said is that there is no longer any point in air attacks no matter how much they increase, and it is no longer feasible except for a ground invasion campaign, which Trump cannot make because of its enormous human costs, especially before the midterm elections.
It revolves around his preference for the continuation of maximum pressure and naval blockade on Iran, and relying on the exacerbation of economic problems inside Iran, which has lived, withstood and built its strength, despite continuous pressures and sanctions for about five decades, and when Trump does not find this language useful, he lightly switches to a calmer language, and says that calm is required, and practicing negotiations with Iran in the style of a chess game, and it seems that he is borrowing from Iran its tools and imitating them after he has become accustomed to the tricks of confronting it with weapons and politics, and Trump cannot Before the signing of the memorandum of understanding on June 17, the British economic newspaper "Financial Times" said that Iranian negotiators surpassed Trump in the art of making deals, which became clear after the announcement of the terms of the memorandum, which seemed to be a net gain for Iran, and Trump was forced to swallow them before announcing his non-compliance with them, and today he is engaged in new indirect negotiations with the Iranians, this time revolving around the Strait of Hormuz. which was fully open to free navigation before Trump launched the war.
Whenever Trump finds himself lost in the maze, he resorts to outright lying, in the way he recently claimed, that the strait is under the full control of the US Navy, and if so, then why is Iran negotiating to open the strait, when the whole world knows that the Strait of Hormuz is still under Iranian control, and that Tehran is concluding an agreement with the Sultanate of Oman to regulate the management of the strait, and to open a joint shipping channel, the entrances of which Iran controls, and leaves the exits to Oman, in what Iran does not intend to loosen its grip on.
The conclusion of the comparison between the American and Iranian situations today is that Iran's military and political power appears to be more coherent and harder, and the costs of war on Washington are steadily increasing Its astonishing steadfastness, officially rally around the new Supreme Commander Mojtaba Khamenei, and enjoy broad popular support and support from around the Iranian flag, while the Trump administration seems to be in a more critical situation, in which popular support for waging a losing war is declining, Trump's popularity is falling to low limits, and he is threatened by rising inflation and rising fuel prices, and the strong prospects of losing the majority available to him in Congress in both chambers, which may turn him into a lame duck in the two remaining years until the end of his last term in office, and he can hardly find a way out Unless he decides to withdraw from the entire war.
A choice that he does not have by virtue of his narcissistic and arrogant nature, then he does not expect a more comfortable time, if he decides to get out of his great Iranian predicament now. Former American presidents have chosen to avoid a war with Iran that could be prolonged, and Trump alone risked a false promise from Benjamin Netanyahu that everything Iranian will end in a matter of days, and here is Trump drowning in the Iranian quagmire for about six months that can be extended, and he has no one to find An indispensable chance of survival for his scattered gossip.
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