Western reports agree that the coming months will be a real test of the continent's ability to manage energy security amid ongoing tensions.
Afrasianet - A Race Against Time, As European winter approaches, the Old Continent finds itself facing a serious energy challenge that cannot be ignored.
The EU's natural gas stockpiles have reached their lowest levels in more than fifteen years at this time of year, amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East that is severely impacting LNG supplies.
Western media reports paint a pessimistic picture: Erope enters the warming season with weak inventories, high prices, and fierce competition with Asia for available shipments.
According to data from the Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) platform, storage levels in the EU reached around 66% in early September 2026, compared to a historical average of close to 80-83% in the same period last year.
That level is the lowest in nearly a decade and a half or more, according to estimates by the Financial Times' Wood McKenzie.
The spring refill season started with very low inventories, only about 28% after a cold winter depleted stocks. As of the end of August, levels were hovering around 65%, with expectations at best to reach 70-75% by November 1, far from the traditional target of 90% or even the flexible target of 75-80% set by the European Commission.
The main reason for this crisis is the war in the Middle East, which broke out in late February 2026 between the United States and Israel on the one hand and Iran on the other.
The war partially or completely closed the Strait of Hormuz for long periods, a corridor through which about one-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas supplies pass, mostly from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Qatar's gas facilities in Ras Laffan were damaged, forcing Doha to declare force majeure and sharply cut exports.
Even after temporary peace attempts, flows have not returned to their previous levels, and analysts predict that reform will take years, with any major country expansions delayed until the second half of 2027 or beyond.
Europe, which has become increasingly dependent on liquefied natural gas (LNG) after reducing reliance on Russian gas through pipelines, has found itself in direct confrontation with Asian buyers. China, Japan, South Korea, and even countries such as Bangladesh have rushed to buy available shipments at high prices to make up for Qatar's shortfall.
Asia's imports of US liquefied natural gas (LNG) hit record highs in the summer months, while Europe's imports fell to their lowest levels since September 2024 in some months.
According to Kepler's data, Europe's imports in July were only about 6.3 million tonnes. This led to European gas prices rising to more than 60 euros per megawatt hour, and then to around 70 euros in early September, the highest levels since early 2023.
These higher prices did not encourage companies to store aggressively during the summer. Forward price curves in some periods encouraged waiting, as winter prices were lower than summer prices, reducing business incentives for refills.
Wood-Mackenzie warned that Europe faces a structural storage deficit, even in a best-case scenario that assumes a partial return to Qatari production.
Reuters and Bloomberg have suggested that the continent may be forced to "force-buy" during the winter at higher prices, adding to the pressure on households and businesses.
This comes at a time when Europe is preparing to impose a complete ban on Russian liquefied gas imports from January 1, 2027, following the ban on short-term contracts previously.
Russian gas still accounted for a significant proportion of imports (about 14% in some recent estimates), and Europe relied heavily on US liquefied gas, which now accounts for about two-thirds of its LNG imports and 30% of its total gas imports.
This growing reliance on a single source raises concerns about energy security, especially as geopolitical tensions persist.
The dry and hot summer has also exacerbated the problem. Hydroelectric reservoir levels in Europe have dropped due to the drought, increasing reliance on gas to generate electricity. In winter, if the weather is cold, Europe could withdraw between 72 and 77 billion cubic meters of stockpiles, according to some analysts' estimates.
With low inventories, the continent will need higher LNG imports than a year earlier, which means tighter competition with Asia and higher prices that could lead to rationing in poorer countries or higher energy bills in Europe.
The European Commission has repeatedly stressed that current levels do not raise immediate security concerns, that the 80% target is sufficient, and that there is excess capacity at regasification plants that would allow for an increase in winter imports.
But analysts at Equinor, Wood, Mackenzie and Eng warn that reaching even 75% will be difficult, and that a cold winter or continued unrest in Hormuz could repeat scenarios similar to the 2022 crisis, though not yet as severe.
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