Experts say developments in Yemen and the Red Sea have become part of a broader and more complex regional landscape
Afrasianet - Mahmoud Lafi - Since the beginning of July, the crisis in Yemen between the Ansar Allah group (Houthis) and the Yemeni government and the Saudi-led coalition forces has witnessed a radical shift, as the situation escalated after years of a relative truce, to move into a military confrontation that included targeting airports, commercial ships, and vital facilities.
The escalation has re-escalated the Yemeni scene with a series of attacks targeting ships linked to Saudi Arabia and Abha airport, followed by coalition raids on Houthi positions in Hodeidah province, amid fears that the situation could descend into a wider confrontation.
Analysts link the beginning of the latest wave of escalation to the incident of the Iranian plane belonging to the "Mahan" company, which the Yemeni government and coalition forces said transferred Iranian military equipment and commanders to Yemen, which was followed by the bombing of Sana'a airport and then the landing of the plane at Hodeidah airport, before the Houthis targeted Abha airport and the mutual threats continued.
The escalation began earlier this month following a direct Iranian flight to Houthi-controlled Sana'a airport on a plane belonging to Iran's Mahan Air.
The following is a timeline of the escalation in Yemen since the beginning of this month until today:
Early July | The start of the escalation. Mahan Plane Crisis
• July 3
The escalation began after Iran operated a direct flight to Sana'a airport, which has been under Houthi control since September 2014, on a plane belonging to Iran's Mahan Air, the first announced flight in 10 years, according to Yemeni media, in a move that Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council described as a violation of Yemen's sovereignty and a defiance of international law.
On the other hand, the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of trying to intercept a civilian plane coming from Iran and preventing it from landing at Sanaa airport, threatening to target Saudi airports and vital and economic facilities if Riyadh, according to the group, continues to prevent the operation of Sana'a airport or repeats the attempt to intercept the planes.
"Mahan's flight carried a number of military and security elements, as well as Iranian experts specialized in the development of drones and missile systems," the Yemeni Presidential Council said.
The Houthi group said the plane carried 200 Yemenis who were sick, wounded and stranded, and transported an official delegation to Tehran to participate in the funeral ceremony of former Iranian leader Ali Khamenei.
Mid-July | Targeting airports
• July 13
The Yemeni Ministry of Defense announced that the runway of Sana'a International Airport has been targeted to prevent the landing of a new Iranian plane.
In response, the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia of targeting the airport, declared the "end of the de-escalation" that had been in place in the country for years, and then bombed Saudi Arabia's Abha International Airport with ballistic missiles and drones.
• July 14
In an effort to prevent a slide into a new round of war, UN envoy to Yemen Hans Grundberg began a visit toMuscat, during which he met with senior Omani officials and the head of the Houthi negotiating delegation, Mohammed Abdulsalam.
• July 18
The Yemeni government announced that another Iranian plane belonging to the "Mahan" company, the third since the beginning of the month, has been prevented from completing its journey to Sana'a airport and returning it from Omani airspace, stressing that it did not obtain the necessary permits.
The Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council announced that the time has come to reclaim state institutions from the Houthi movement, while the latter threatened to escalate its steps, according to the formula of "reciprocity", if what it describes as the "siege" imposed on Yemen continues.
Meanwhile, the international mediator Grundberg traveled to Riyadh to meet with the head of the Yemeni Presidential Council, Rashad al-Alimi, in the hope of containing tension and hardening positions, amid mutual threats to resort to military escalation.
Last Third of July | Ships Targeted, Trump Threatens
• July 20
The Houthis have announced a "maritime ban" on Saudi-linked vessels in response to what they say is a blockade imposed by Riyadh on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen.
On the other hand, the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council decided to resume oil exports "by all means", calling on Yemenis, tribes and national forces to rally around the armed forces and support them.
• July 22
The Houthi group announced that it targeted two Saudi oil ships in the Red Sea with ballistic missiles and drones, noting that the attack led to the outbreak of two fires in them.
• July 23
Saudi Arabia has confirmed that a ship belonging to it was targeted while sailing in the Red Sea, which led to the outbreak of a fire at the forefront of the ship without any injuries.
US President Donald Trump has threatened the Houthis and Iran with "significant military punishment" if they launch further attacks, following the targeting of the two Saudi oil tankers.
• July 24
Saudi Arabia has once again announced the targeting of a ship belonging to it in the Red Sea, which resulted in a minor injury to the hull, describing the targets as a violation of international laws and norms that ensure the safety of commercial ships and their crews.
In a sign that UN mediation efforts to de-escalate have faltered, Grundberg said he had returned from two visits to Oman, which were punctuated by a visit to Saudi Arabia, noting that the facts in Yemen "are pushing in the opposite direction, and represent a setback for Yemenis above all else."
Peak | Bombing of Hodeidah and Aramco
• July 25
The Saudi-led coalition confirmed the implementation of a "proportionate military response" operation against Houthi military targets in the Red Sea province of Hodeidah and Kamran Island in the west of the country, describing the Houthis' strikes against ships as a "cowardly and reckless act", stressing that its strikes did not target the port of Hodeidah.
Meanwhile, the Yemeni government's air force launched airstrikes targeting military reinforcements of the Ansar Allah group (Houthis) in Marib and Al-Jawf governorates.
On the other hand, the Houthis announced the targeting of what they described as "sensitive targets" at Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu in Saudi Arabia with dozens of ballistic and winged missiles and drones.
Foreshadowing all-out war
Military and strategic expert Brig. Gen. Hassan Jouni said that the recent developments reflect the ignition of a new front in addition to the existing tension in the Strait of Hormuz, noting that the Yemeni arena and the Red Sea have become part of a broader and more complex regional scene.
The escalation carries two dimensions, Johnny explained, one of which is local, represented by the exchange of strikes between Saudi Arabia and "Ansar Allah", and the other is regional related to the ongoing developments in the Gulf and Iran, pointing out that the targeting of energy facilities in Jizan and Yanbu carries economic implications related to oil supplies.
The counterstrikes focused on crippling Ansar Allah's military and naval capabilities by targeting al-Hodeidah and Kamran Island, in addition to missile platforms and ammunition depots in Marib and al-Jawf, he said, in an effort to neutralize its effectiveness on the ground.
Any expansion of the confrontation will pose additional challenges for Washington, both in terms of protecting navigation and deploying its naval forces in the Red Sea and Gulf, further complicating the regional landscape and the likelihood of a slide into all-out war.
________________
