Afrasianet - Wissam Abu Shamala - The Israeli government sees one of its post-war goals as developing normalization with Arab states and reshaping the Middle East by expanding its political ties and building new security and economic networks that strengthen its regional position.
In a statement published a few days ago on his platform "Truth Social", Trump linked negotiations with Iran to the expansion of the Abraham Accords, and mentioned Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, and Jordan, along with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, signatories to the agreements.
Trump's statements are inseparable from the slogan of imposing "peace" through force, but force alone has not succeeded in imposing his vision on the region, because it simply did not achieve a military victory over Iran, failed to subdue it through war and the threat of mass destruction, and it has so far failed to achieve its goals through negotiations, and it seems that he has resorted to the method of blackmail, but not to the Iranian side that cannot be blackmailed, but to the parties in the region who wish to end the war out of fear for their interests.
What Trump wants is completely consistent with the will of Benjamin Netanyahu, who seeks to change the Middle East, and just as Trump failed by military force to achieve his goals, Netanyahu did not succeed in resolving his wars with Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, did not resolve any front and did not achieve absolute victory, and the two parties, Trump and Netanyahu, seemed to be in crisis looking for a way out that they can market to their public bases ahead of their election entitlements at the end of this year, by giving the illusion that the region is preparing for a comprehensive regional deal centered on Israel, as a regional axis that includes the Gulf countries, Egypt. Jordan, Turkey and Pakistan, aim to isolate Iran and its allies.
What Trump and Netanyahu want is not just a political rapprochement, but a new regional axis that leads to the reshaping of the Middle East in accordance with Israeli interests and full subordination to American policies.
For example, the new vision does not want a country like Egypt to be in a state of cold "peace" with Israel, but rather to build normal relations at all levels, including popular, media, and cultural normalization, in addition to coordination and cooperation in economic, security and political files on key issues in the region such as Gaza, the Red Sea, Iran.
At the level of Turkey as another pivotal country mentioned by Trump, the latter seeks to address the tense relations between Turkey and Israel against the background of the genocidal war in Gaza, to seek understanding on common issues, in Syria, Iran, energy, trade...
Trump believes that the key to change in the Middle East starts with Saudi Arabia, which links normalization with Israel to the start of a path to resolving the Palestinian issue, which Netanyahu and his far-right government reject.
According to the reactions from the main countries included in Trump's statement, which are not related to official relations with Israel, namely Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan, they linked the two paths of normalization to the Palestinian issue, and not between normalization and the Iran file, which puts Trump's invitation within the framework of blackmail attempts and blaming the regional countries that rejected the invitation, in case Trump decides to return to the war on Iran.
On the other hand, Trump's call came after escalating criticism within the Republican Party for a possible settlement with Iran, and Trump believes that his call to expand the normalization campaign is a way to create a new success story, which provokes internal debates about it, and divert attention from the failure to subdue Iran through the negotiating table after the failure on the battlefield, in light of the hawks in his party warning of the repercussions on the party and on Trump himself if a deal with Iran is signed that does not reflect its defeat.
Trump's call to expand the "Abraham Accords" reflects the strategic crisis that Trump is suffering from, represented by his failure to defeat Iran and subjugate it militarily and diplomatically, which will have enormous repercussions on the United States and its influence as a great power, as well as have immediate repercussions on Trump and his party ahead of the midterm elections. Moving forward and confronting internal pressures on him, by putting forward a mere illustrious idea, which is neither a plan nor an initiative, but just a tweet added to his record full of tweets that carry the thing and its opposite.
If Trump bets on turning the agreement with Iran into a gateway to expand normalization in the region, his bet depends on the developments of the war/negotiations with Iran, which will determine the nature of the political scene in the region, and in the event that the United States loses the war, by failing to subdue the Iranian side, the circle of normalization of relations in the region may expand with Iran and not with Israel.
Israelily, the Israeli government believes that one of its goals after the war is to develop normalization with Arab countries, and reshape the Middle East, by expanding its political relations and building new security and economic networks that strengthen its regional position, as Israel does not deal with the "Abraham Accords" as they were completed in 2020, when they were concluded, but as a path that needs to be completed and developed after the war, so Trump's invitation came in advance coordination with Netanyahu, and was reinforced by Lindsey Graham, through statements that are not without threat to countries that refuse to normalize with " Israel."
Although Israel believes that the Abraham Accords have remained at their official and security level and that its existing partners have not withdrawn from the relationship with it despite the war, it is aware at the same time that the war has weakened the areas of civil normalization, raised the cost of progress with new countries, and brought the Palestinian issue back to the heart of regional calculations, which it wants to replace with the Iranian issue, through barter and blackmail with the constant help of its reliable ally Trump.
