Afrasianet - Jamal Wakim - Turkey, which has lost its promised role in the Arab region with the exception of a secondary presence in northern Syria, western Libya and Somalia, will seek to have a leading role in Central Asia.
At a time when the Middle East and the world are undergoing profound transformations in terms of the transition from a unipolar system to a multipolar system, and at a time when Eurasian powers, including China and Russia, are seeking to forge international roles that constitute an alternative to the international relations that were based three centuries ago on Western hegemony, Turkey is at a crossroads in search of a role for itself in this turbulent world.
Neo-Ottomanism: Turkey's Crossing Bridge to the Arab World
Following the proclamation of the Turkish Republic in 1924, Turkish elites turned their backs on Islamic heritage and the Middle East and Central Asia, turning their sights on joining Europe.
However, after decades of attempts, and as a result of European refusal to integrate Turkey into its system as a country with a Muslim identity, Turkish elites had to reshape their role by turning back to the Middle East and Central Asia.
The reigns of Adnan Menderes and Celal Piar in the 1950s were the first attempts to go to the Middle East, but this attempt ended with a coup against Menderes and his execution in 1960.
During the 1980s and early 1990s, Turgut Özal's reign as Prime Minister and then as President of the Republic (1983-1993) was a gesture of a U.S.-mandated move to Central Asia in order to destabilize the Soviet Union and extend Western influence to Central Asian countries. Year 1993.
During the 1990s, the United States began to realize the danger of the Sino-Russian-Iranian rapprochement on its interests, which led it to invoke the September 11, 2001 attacks to occupy Afghanistan and then strike Iraq to reshape the geopolitics of the Middle East.
In order to prevent Iran from becoming a bridge for China towards the Eastern Mediterranean, the US circles, along with the Arab political leaders associated with them, raised the slogan of containing Iran's Shiite expansion by establishing an alliance between three Sunni capitals: Ankara, Riyadh, and Cairo.
To achieve this goal, the United States sought to attract political Islam, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood, and hand them power in Ankara under the name of neo-Ottomanism, provided that this would be a prelude to their assumption of power in Egypt and then in Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries, so that there would be a single party, the Muslim Brotherhood, that would bring these capitals together in a discourse that goes beyond the national dimension to the religious and sectarian dimension.
However, the Muslim Brotherhood's failure to take power in Egypt (2012-2013) and its subsequent failure to form an alternative to the Saudi ruling family in Riyadh and other Arab capitals has evaporated Turkey's dreams of becoming the dominant pole in the Arab region.
Israel regains the leading role at the behest of Washington
As a result of this failure, the American decision-making circles decided to rehabilitate the existing Arab regimes, giving priority to Israel in leading the project of reshaping the geopolitics of the region, replacing the neo-Ottoman slogan with the slogan of Abrahamic identities.
In implementation of this project, Israel launched a two-year genocidal war against Gaza, which was followed by striking the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon and overthrowing the Syrian state in cooperation with Turkey, Britain, and the United States.
After that, Israel began to declare its intention to establish a "Greater Israel" by dividing Syria into sectarian entities, with talk behind the scenes about its intention to occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani, annex some districts of the Bekaa Valley and the north to the Syrian state, and establish a Christian canton in the north of Mount Lebanon.
On the other hand, Turkey's share was part of northern Syria, reflecting the transformation of the Turkish role from a leading role to a secondary role in the region.
The overthrow of Syria was a prelude to striking deep inside Russia, which happened in the spring of 2025, in addition to the fact that it was the fall of Syria that paved the way for a strike on Iran in 2025 in order to topple the regime in it and divide it by supporting separatist movements in it.
After the failure of this strike in June 2025, the United States and Israel tried again two months ago but failed.
During the Israeli-American aggression against Iran, the ambiguity of Turkey's role was noted in parallel with its ally Azerbaijan facilitating U.S. and Israeli forces to provide logistical support to separatist groups in northwestern Iran, specifically in the regions of East and West Azerbaijan, Mahabad and Kermanshah.
This pointed to Turkey's role in implicitly participating in the aggression against Iran, despite Iran's efforts to contain Turkey during the conflict. But it seems that U.S. circles have decided to compensate Turkey for losing its promised role in the Arab region in terms of qualifying it for a dominant role in Central Asia.
In this context, it is important to note what has happened in the past years in terms of a coup in Armenia that put Yerevan under American domination, contrary to what Yerevan has been accustomed to throughout its recent history in terms of its close relations with Moscow.
Over the past two years, Yerevan has ceded the Artsakh region to Azerbaijan as a prelude to signing an agreement with it to open the Zanzizur crossing under the auspices of the United States to become a crossing bridge for Turkey through the South Caucasus towards the Republic of Turkmenistan, as a prelude to destabilizing the Central Asian region that threatens Russian and Chinese national security It is a branch of the main Belt and Road Initiative.
Future Prospects
Accordingly, Turkey appears to be benefiting from striking Iran, despite the openly hostile rhetoric between Ankara and Tel Aviv. Turkey, which has lost its promised role in the Arab region with the exception of a minor presence in northern Syria, western Libya, and Somalia, will seek to have a leading role in Central Asia in the interest of the United States to expand into that region and hit Russia and China in the soft side.
One of the prerequisites for preparing Turkey for such a project may be a change in power in Turkey. The "Islamist" Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whose rhetoric was useful in building a bridge with the Arab world through the common Islamic heritage, may not be suitable for carrying a nationalist discourse that constitutes a bridge across Turkey towards the Central Asian republics with common Turkish origins.
Adding to the possibility of a change in power in Ankara with the blessing of the United States is Erdogan's old age on the one hand, and the conflict within his narrow circle between his son-in-law Bayrakdar, his Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his son Najmuddin Bilal over his successor in power.
Hence, the rehabilitation of the nationalist Turkish opposition may be more suited to the U.S. projects for Turkey in the next phase in terms of playing a dominant role in Central Asia.
