Afrasianet - Ahmed Sabri Alsayed Ali - Iran's victory in this war and its success in imposing its conditions on the Americans and the Zionists will be considered a victory in another way for the Turks through their success in displacing the Zionist project to become a regional superpower that rivals them.
With the public Zionist threats to Turkey, which have reached the stage of verbal exchange, it seems that the Zionist entity is very serious in its project to target Turkey in the event that the war on Iran stops without decisive results, or if the American-Zionist aggression succeeds in imposing its will on Iran.
Although this outcome has become almost unlikely, the fact that relations between the Zionist entity and Turkey have reached this extent prompts us to raise a number of questions about Turkey's future after the end of the war with Iran, and America's position on this Zionist project.
Why is the Zionist entity targeting Turkey?
Until recently, everyone was talking about the special relationship between the Zionist entity and Turkey, which seemed strange and reprehensible to an Islamic state. But things changed somewhat after the events of the Al-Aqsa Flood, and became worse after the fall of the Baath Party regime in Syria and then the assumption of Donald Trump to the presidency and his admiration for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan more than once.
The fall of the Baath Party in Syria led to the emergence of a Turkish project for the area surrounding the Zionist entity, and the leaders of the latter read that the project included Gaza as well, which threatened the Zionist projects in the region and promised to be hostile to them, which prompted Benjamin Netanyahu to warn: "To those who think that they can re-establish their empires and impose their control over our lands, I say: Forget about it, it won't happen, and don't even think about it." Even trying to formulate an anti-Turkish project by signing an alliance treaty with Both Cyprus and Greece have ensured the establishment of a rapid intervention force to counter threats in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The Turkish project relied on an attempt to restore former Ottoman influence over the Arab regions in northern Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and Jordan, and this influence relied on economic and trade relations with neighboring countries, especially with regard to energy in the Eastern Mediterranean, and an attempt to support the Turkmen minorities, whether in Iraq, Syria, and even Lebanon, and support some Palestinian resistance factions in Gaza.
This provoked the leaders of the Zionist entity, who did not want a regional power to emerge in their confrontation, and in turn had expansionist projects in these areas, especially with regard to southern Syria and the Syrian desert extending to the Euphrates River, in the hope of communicating with Kurdish groups. Despite the successes achieved by the Zionist entity in southern Syria by seizing the Golan and controlling the areas of Suwayda, Daraa and Quneitra.
On the U.S. side, it was clear that Trump has a different vision from Benjamin Netanyahu's, and his ambassador to Turkey, Thomas Barak, in his speech to Turkish media in May 2025, expressed the U.S. vision for this Turkish project and how they are benefiting from it: "I believe that Turkey can come back again to be a new hub for the spice route, a center for energy, for production, for transportation networks," and Barak continues, "As a new spice route, Turkey can become a hub for the supply of more gas to Europe, via gas distribution stations.
It will provide Europe with an additional shield against Russian interference. Turkey, through its partnerships with U.S. defense and aviation companies, is playing the role of an international strategic front, and it can also temporarily keep China and the Belt and Road Initiative out of the playoffs."
So, according to the US ambassador to Turkey, the latter has a very large role in the American project to try to control the speed of Chinese development and expansion through the Belt and Road Initiative, and stop Russian expansion in Europe, and now it may have a greater role in confronting Iranian influence in the Arab and Central Asian regions, and this reality is perhaps one of the most important provocations that Netanyahu cannot tolerate. According to this perception, it seems that the role and status of the Zionist entity in relation to American policy will decline significantly about his perceptions.
Why do the Turkish and Zionist projects contradict?
The essence of the conflict between the two projects is their desire to become a logistical node in the trade corridors through which goods, energy, and vital minerals will be transported from east to west. The Zionist entity is also looking for an important and dominant role in the region by turning it into a logistical node for the transportation of goods and energy as well. This was evident in the attempt by Zionist Defense Minister Yisrael Katz to promote the revival of the Hejaz railway line under the name of the "Regional Peace Railway" in 2017, with the aim of The Zionist entity was linked to the Arab Gulf countries, and later developed into the IMEC corridor, the India-Arab East-Europe corridor, in 2023.
To achieve this goal, the Zionist entity had to establish some projects such as: the Ben-Gurion Canal project from the port of Eilat to Ashkelon, the project of searching for a land route from India to the Zionist entity, the project of trying to control the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the project of eliminating the Arab and Iranian resistance to the Zionist presence in the region.
In order for the Zionist entity to achieve its goals, it was necessary to achieve an expansion on the ground that would allow it to be the technological mind of the region and its logistical node, which would provide it with geographical depth and allow it to increase its population and obtain wealth that exists in its surroundings. Indeed, he was able to exploit the fall of the Syrian regime and impose its hegemony over the Golan region, and sought to impose the Passage of David by cooperating with some Druze leaders to dominate the Syrian desert up to the west of the Euphrates, and tried to press for the establishment of a Kurdish state in northeastern Syria, attacking Iran and pressuring to dismantle its political unity in the hope of the independence of Baluchistan, Arabia, Kurdistan and Azerbaijan in Iran, which would provide it with two land routes from India through these regions. He concluded his attempts with unilateral recognition of the Republic of Somaliland And an attempt to obtain a military base there to monitor Bab al-Mandab and get closer to Ansar Allah in Yemen.
At this point, Turkish leaders understood that their project of Turkey being the corridor of energy and goods from Asia to Europe was threatened, which prompted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to say, "There are no corridors without Turkey", and this project even threatened their political unity, in the event of the establishment of a Kurdish state on their borders or an Alawite state in the Sahel, and the recognition of the Republic of Somaliland and the quest to build a military base in Berbera, is targeted, among other reasons, to besiege Turkey has been able to penetrate Somalia through soft power initially, as Turkish President Erdogan was the first non-African leader to head to Mogadishu during the famine.
Subsequently, Turkey launched a large-scale humanitarian aid campaign, building hospitals and infrastructure, and reopened the Turkish embassy in Mogadishu, Turkey's largest in the world, reflecting Turkey's awareness of the importance of a presence in the Horn of Africa. It later evolved into military cooperation, with the establishment of Turksum in 2017, Turkey's largest overseas base, and it also trained thousands of Somali soldiers (about 16,000). In 2024, a defense and security agreement was signed that includes the protection of territorial waters and the building of Somali naval capabilities.
Obviously, this Turkish aid has had economic gains for Turkey, as it has become Somalia's most important trading partner. Turkish companies are responsible for managing the port and airport of Mogadishu, and they have investments in infrastructure, transportation, and services. This economic cooperation culminated in an economic agreement signed in 2024, under which Turkey received a percentage of Somalia's marine resources (about 30%), and cooperation in the fields of oil, gas, and fisheries.
The Zionist recognition of the Republic of Somaliland, and Netanyahu's statement that he would persuade Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to recognize this republic, led to a clear provocation to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt first, especially since this recognition included the emergence of an undeclared alliance between the Zionist entity, the United Arab Emirates, and Ethiopia, which led to the emergence of a counter-and undeclared alliance as well, between the three countries that felt that the Zionist action threatened their national security and interests.
Turkey's Position on American-Zionist Aggression on Iran
Despite the apparent rivalry between Iran and Turkey in both the Arab region, the Caucasus, and Central Asia, the geopolitical reality that the leaders of the two countries are aware of has proven an insurmountable fact that the stability of each country is essential for the security and stability of the other. Turkey's steadfast position in rejecting these aggressions has not been surprising or unexpected, in terms of security concerns. On the other hand, there are clear gains that the Turks have been able to achieve as a result of restricting navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
This Iranian action and the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports have raised Turkey's status as a major energy corridor for Europe, which in turn has been looking for alternatives, even if they are not on the same level. Turkey's Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits each pass through 3.7 million barrels per day, representing 5% of global oil trade, in addition to 1.5 billion tons of cargo annually, and overall, these straits pass through 2% of global trade.
In addition, it is a stable natural gas corridor to Europe via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipelines, and the Turkish Stream, a Russian gas pipeline that passes under the Black Sea to Turkey. The Tanap Line, which transports Azerbaijani gas to Europe via Turkey, and the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Line.
On the other hand, Turkey's main enemy in Europe, Greece, is one of the biggest victims of this war, as the Greek economy depends on two elements: maritime transport and tourism, and certainly the maritime transport sector has been affected as a result of the restriction of navigation traffic, the rise in insurance and transportation fees, the weak tourism activity, in addition to the rise in energy prices.
Turkey's choice to host the NATO leaders' summit in July 2026 (in Ankara) is an important indicator of its increasing weight within the alliance and Europe, as this summit represents the highest level of decision in NATO, and is held only at sensitive strategic moments, and is granted to countries that want to highlight their role within the The Alliance.
Turkish analysts have clearly picked up on this thread, as Admiral Ceyat Yayici called for the need to take advantage of this war and restrict navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, by strengthening the development route from FAO in Iraq to Istanbul in Turkey, noting that the implementation of the corridor will raise Turkey's position in Europe. This development in relations between Turkey and NATO will mean paralyzing the hand of the Zionist entity and its allies in hindering the Turkish project in the region.
Conflict scenarios between the two projects
The results of the U.S.-Zionist war on Iran will play a major role in shaping these scenarios. We can tolerate two basic scenarios:
- The first scenario is the inability of the two parties to resolve the outcome of the war or the ability of the United States and the Zionist entity to impose concessions on Iran, regarding the missile industry, uranium enrichment, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while the Islamic regime remains.
In this case, the conflict between the two projects will flare up over several areas, the first of which is Syria and Lebanon. The Zionist entity wants to empty the south of the Oli River south of Sidon of its population, and although the statements of the Zionist government ministers mostly speak of the south of the Litani, the Zionist entity wants to empty the south of the Litani The period before the Zionist-American aggressions on Iran witnessed some arrogant Zionist statements about aspirations towards the Al-Awli River south of Sidon, which means the seizure of the entire south of Lebanon.
The Turks, on the other hand, have a project to deepen their influence in Lebanon, particularly in the north, and are moving to deepen that influence through soft power so far in the same way that they have supported their influence in Somalia, and it is no secret that they have ambitions to acquire the port of Tripoli and the airport of Al-Qulayat. Saudi Arabia does not seem to have a problem supporting the Turkish presence.
In Syria, the Zionist entity wants to dominate southern Syria, which includes the Golan, Suwayda, Quneitra, and Daraa, and it also wants greater influence in the Syrian desert and even west of the Euphrates to establish what is called the Passage of David, a project that will be revived as an echo so that both America and the Zionist entity can achieve achievements in their war against Iran, which will represent a danger to the national security of both Turkey, Iraq, and Iran.
The second region is linked to the Horn of Africa, which the Zionist entity has announced its recognition of the unrecognized Republic of Somaliland, and Zionist Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised to obtain Indian recognition of this republic. Recently, reports have emerged that the Zionist entity is building a military base in the port of Berbera, which is supervised by the United Arab Emirates, and Ethiopia, which is allied with the Zionist entity, is also coveting a sea port through this port to face the Egyptian blockade of it, which will certainly lead to a clash with the Turkish and Egyptian influence, as well as their Chinese back.
The third region, the Eastern Mediterranean, which previously witnessed the signing of an agreement between the Zionist entity and both the countries of Cyprus and Greece, was explicitly directed against Turkish influence, especially after the latter's improved relations with Egypt and the coordination between the two parties, in addition to Saudi Arabia in Libya, Sudan, Somalia and South Yemen, which Netanyahu considered a threat to the interests of his entity, which prompted him to announce last February a draft alliance between his entity and the UAE, India, Cyprus and Greece, in addition to Other Asian and African countries that he did not name, to confront what he described as the two axes of evil, the Shiite and Sunni extremists.
- The second scenario is Iran's success in imposing its conditions on the Americans and maintaining its missile program and its dominance over the Strait of Hormuz, and it seems that the recent American and even Zionist expectations are inclined in this direction or at least expect it, and therefore some analyses and research papers published by institutions such as Defense Priorities have begun to call for the restructuring of the American presence in the Arab East, considering that the heavy presence in the Gulf no longer achieves the required deterrence, but has become a burden that endangers the forces, and it sees the need to transfer them to the Zionist entity The goal here is to focus protection on the body of the Zionist entity itself, while opening the way for regional powers to contain the axis of resistance and restrict its movement.
If this scenario succeeds, a Turkish-led coalition that includes Pakistan and Saudi Arabia will be given this role, and the Zionist entity will be forced to make do with what it got in the Golan and the summit of Mount El-Sheikh, and not exceed its expansionist ambitions to this extent, and leave Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan to Turkish and Saudi influences. On the other hand, the conflict will continue to rage in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Horn of Africa, as disputed areas of influence.
The Turks may have already begun to prepare for this phase after Somalia recently threatened to ban the passage of Zionist ships to Bab al-Mandeb, and based on the maritime agreement between Turkey and Somalia signed in February 2024 that stipulates the establishment of a joint naval force, and Turkey's pledge to protect Somali waters for ten years, this threat is in fact more of a Turkish threat than a Somali one.
What confirms this perception is that the Americans have recently evacuated their bases in Syria, after supporting the Turkish position, which was represented in their explicit abandonment of support for the Kurdish SDF movement in the face of joint attacks by the groups of the new Syrian regime. With these measures, the Americans are indirectly recognizing Turkish hegemony over Syria, in exchange for giving the Zionist entity a small morsel by recognizing their control over the Golan.
Then the establishment of the revival of the Hajj route, which connects Istanbul to Mecca through Syria and Jordan, and extends to secondary routes to Tripoli in Lebanon, and parts of Palestine, and comes in the context of supporting the Turkish project. It will strengthen Turkey's position as a major Islamic regional country in the Arab region, both religiously and economically, as the route will not be limited to transporting pilgrims, but mainly aims to establish a logistical corridor linking Europe to the Gulf and the Red Sea, providing a fast land alternative to sea freight beyond the bottleneck points Waterways such as Bab al-Mandeb, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz.
Turkey, Syria, and Jordan officially agreed in September 2025 to revive this historic route. In April 2026, Saudi Arabia confirmed that the technical studies of the project will be completed by the end of this year. It is hard to imagine the idea of such a road being implemented without American approval.
The Turkish leaders have already received the American signal and have begun to act on it by promoting a project of an alliance that includes them alongside Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which Turkish analyst Swat Özdemir pointed out that Zionist practices and American aggressions against Iran will lead to the establishment of an alliance that includes Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, and it is also possible that Egypt will join this alliance.
Although this idea is not new, it has already been put forward by Malaysia, but its activation at the current moment indicates that American acceptance, especially since the three countries do not have a principled hostility to the Zionist entity and do not adopt slogans of removing it like Iran.
In March 2025, the Pakistanis offered a gesture of friendship to the Trump administration by arresting the mastermind of the Abiy Gate bombing, Mohammad Sharifullah, who killed 13 American soldiers during the withdrawal from Afghanistan. It was handed over to the Americans, which necessitated praise for Pakistan by Trump In his first address to Congress. Pakistan has also signed agreements with Washington for the supply of vital metals, and its finance ministry has even struck deals with companies linked to the Trump family in the field of cryptocurrency.
Some Gulf states have realized the fact that the direct American presence in the Gulf may not last, and therefore the resort of both Saudi Arabia and Qatar to a Pakistani and Turkish military presence on their territory, and the possibility of the UAE taking refuge in India, may not be fixed bases but temporary positions that do not provoke Pakistan and Iran, based on the defense partnership agreement between the two parties, indicate an attempt to fill the security and military vacuum for the Americans.
But it is clear here, in both cases, that the conflict in the Arab East, based on the arrangements sought by America and as a result of the lack of an independent Arab project, will continue, and may take different forms in the expected ignition zones between competing projects.
Iran's victory in this war and its success in imposing its conditions on the Americans and the Zionists will be considered a victory for the Turks through their success in displacing the Zionist project to become a regional superpower that rivals them, and forcing it to isolate, even temporarily, after its status has declined to become a shattered spearhead, and it will have to accept putting its security within the framework of the existing Turkish-led coalition.
Turkey's current (official) sympathy for Iran is not surprising, nor is the resurgence of rivalry between the two Islamist countries and perhaps the subsequent indirect clash come as a surprise.
