Afrasianet - Mohamed Daoud - The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has entered its most complicated juncture since it began, with U.S. President Donald Trump adopting a dual strategy that mixes tempting "offers to end the war" with increased military build-up near Iran, which threatens a ground occupation.
While Washington leaks details of a "15-point plan" to end the war, the Pentagon continues to bring more troops to those in the region, amid Israeli astonishment and deep Iranian skepticism of U.S. intentions.
The 15-Point Plan
The Trump administration presented Iran through intermediaries from Pakistan with a comprehensive 15-point plan. The plan, described as a "basis for negotiations," goes beyond a mere ceasefire to include thorny issues, calling for a complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear program, a halt to its ballistic missile program, an end to support for regional proxies such as Hezbollah, and the reopening of waterways, in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.
Israel's Channel 12 quoted three sources as saying that Washington is seeking to impose a "month-long truce" to discuss these principles. Trump, for his part, told reporters at the White House on Tuesday that "the United States is in talks with the right people," claiming that the Iranian side "desperately wants to make a deal."
This optimism by Trump was accompanied by his talk of what he described as the "great gift" given by Iran related to the flow of oil and gas in the Strait of Hormuz, which he considered a sign of the seriousness of the leadership in Tehran.
Increasing military build-up
But this outstretched hand of peace is matched by a "fist ready for you," as one Trump adviser described it to Axios: As the White House talks about negotiations, the Associated Press and The Washington Post have reported that at least 1,000 additional troops from the 82nd Airborne Division have been ordered to be deployed to the Middle East.
The danger of this step lies in the nature of this squad, as it is an "emergency response force" trained to skydive and secure airports and critical infrastructure in hostile territory in just 18 hours.
The crowd, which also includes about 50,000 Marines and sailors already on warships close to the area, sees the Souvan Research Center as a maneuver aimed at giving Trump "maximum flexibility."
The analysis goes further, with the Washington Post noting that the option of land landings, specifically on the strategic Khark Island , is still on Trump's table, although he has not yet made a final decision.
U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth reinforced this view by saying, "We are negotiating with bombs," stressing that military pressure will continue in parallel with diplomatic efforts.
Tehran fears 'third deception'
On the other hand, the U.S. offers do not seem to arouse enthusiasm in Tehran as much as they raise "deep suspicions," as Axios quoted an informed source as saying that Iranian officials have clearly informed mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey: "We have been deceived twice by Trump, and we don't want to be fooled again."
Last June, Israel launched a U.S.-backed attack days before talks on its nuclear program, and the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on Iran took place just two days after a tentative agreement in Geneva.
Iran's official news agencies launched a counterattack on Trump's account, with parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf denying the existence of any direct negotiations, calling them "fake news."
Tasnim news agency quoted a military source as saying that Trump's recourse stemmed from "the poor state of his stockpile of offensive and defensive munitions," and that he was seeking to buy time to implement his military plans or reduce global energy prices that have inflamed due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As for the headquarters of the Seal of the Prophets, it explicitly declared that America was negotiating itself.
Tehran sees the troop buildup as evidence of bad faith, and asserts through its security sources that "American messages are a deceptive plan" that will not dissuade it from defending and responding broadly.
Intermediaries and Islamabad Movements
In the final meters race "amid this impasse", the role of mediators is highlighted, with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif writing on the "X" website about his country's readiness to facilitate "decisive talks", while mediators from Egypt and Turkey pressed for a meeting in Islamabad within 48 hours.
The Wall Street Journal noted that Washington has offered to involve high-ranking figures such as envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and even U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance to demonstrate the seriousness of the talks. Vance's choice in particular is significant, with sources telling Axios that Whitkoff recommended him because the Iranians do not consider him a hardline hawk against Iran.
However, the gap remains enormous: Iranian demands to close U.S. bases in the region, pay huge compensation, and refusal to negotiate have long been met with U.S. demands to end the entire nuclear and missile dossier files, which Iran completely rejects.
Israeli Position
Israel, for its part, is watching the scene with caution tinged with aggression. The Associated Press quoted a source familiar with the matter as saying that Israeli officials who had been urging Trump to continue the war were "surprised" by the ceasefire offer.
In light of this, the Israeli occupation army continues to launch new raids on the Iranian capital, Tehran, on Wednesday morning, targeting infrastructure and residential areas.
Israel's representative to the United Nations stressed that his country "does not participate in any talks" and continues to target military sites, while Israel's Channel 14 claimed that Abbas Araqchi and Qalibaf had obtained "temporary immunity" from targeting, but that did not stop Tel Aviv from insisting on continuing the bombing until "the dismantling of Iran's nuclear and ballistic capabilities is guaranteed."
In a clear message, Yedioth Ahronoth quoted high-ranking officials as saying they did not expect a quick deal, calling the Iranian leadership "creative liars."
The Future of Violent Negotiation
Trump wants to explore whether Iran will make concessions "it was not prepared to make" under the pressure of bombing, and Iran is betting on its influence in energy markets and global fuel price pressure to snatch a better deal.
According to media reports, the war is planned to last for two to three more weeks, even if the talks kick off. The next scenario depends on the ability of the "three mediators" to persuade the two sides to sit in Islamabad, but a possible U.S. landfall could open new avenues for the war.
