Afrasianet - Oraib Al Rantawi - Only Israel wants this war to be comprehensive and final, and not to end unless the regime itself is toppled, based on a "position assessment" that believes that the main danger to it lies not in Iran's nuclear program, but in the survival of the regime itself.
The noise of the diplomatic movement overshadows the beating of war drums, while the region and the world enter the "last quarter of an hour" in the frantic race between politics and the field, as President Donald Trump's administration stands at the center of sharp tensions between two groups of its allies:
The first is led by the "mediation trio" that worked on the Gaza files for more than two years, and consists of Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, with a fan of Arab and Islamic countries next to it, in an effort to ward off the war and ensure the transition from the trenches to the negotiating tables.
Second, Israel stands alone, and only Tel Aviv is pushing for the option of a "final strike," whatever its consequences and repercussions, driven by a "position assessment" that the opportunity has become available to topple the regime, and that if it is closed, it may not open again.
First Team: Reading and Calculations
Driven by the certainty that if the war breaks out, its effects will not be limited to the Iranian geography, the Arab and Islamic countries of the region will move to prevent a slide into a new war, the sparks and fragments of which will affect the entire region, especially after Tehran has made it clear beyond a doubt that the "next strike" will target Tel Aviv and the American bases in the region.
It is clear that Tehran, despite the assurances it has received from all the countries surrounding it, or close to it, that its territory and airspace will not be used in any future aggression, still expresses great doubts about the sincerity of these commitments and, most importantly, the ability of these countries to prevent Washington from using its military "assets" in the next war, not just verbally.
The countries of the region, and Washington before it, are also aware of the fact that Iran's inability to target the United States in its own backyard, or in its remote bases and fleets sailing in the deep seas and oceans, will push it to strike and target what its missiles hit, even if these targets are not active in military operations.
Iran has no way to harm the invading powers other than to target what is within reach of its drones and missiles, most likely Israel and U.S. bases in neighboring countries.
However, the most serious concern for these countries stems from other sources, to a greater extent, because if the war enters its "final chapter", it may leave Iran with no way out but to resort to the "Samson option" and demolish the temple on everyone's heads.
Here, all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz, and perhaps to the Strait that complements it: Bab al-Mandab, where the world will enter one of the most severe energy crises that will weigh on the budgets of countries and the pockets of citizens, and here Egypt (the Suez Canal) and the Gulf countries (gas and oil exports) will emerge, topping the lists of those affected by the outbreak of a new war.
The analyses go much further, especially in light of the rumors about the "regime change" scenario, which is being initiated by Washington and rushed by Tel Aviv, and a number of questions and questions are raised about the "day after" of Iran, and whether there are ready alternatives, or whether chaos will be the title of the most likely scenario, in a multi-ethnic, multi-ethnic, religious and sectarian country, and occupying a very important geostrategic position, which integrates and intersects with the South Caucasus, South-West Asia, the Gulf, the Middle East, and the Red Sea basin, and Europe will not find itself safe About the sparks of the "chaos scenario" in a "subcontinent" country, with an area of more than 1.6 million square kilometers, and a population of more than 90 million people...
Europe, which is still following the US lead, must realize that it is not far from the circle of fire, and that waves of migration and "terrorism" will hit it if it slides into the "worst-case scenario", perhaps as it has never happened before.
This time, unlike previous times, the countries of the region seem more determined to move beyond the folklore of "issuing statements expressing concern" and more engaged in efforts to prevent war. The regional players have turned from being mere "compares" as in previous times, and sometimes partners and instigators, declaring and silent in beating the drums of war, to "weighty" players in seeking to ward off them and prevent them from slipping to the bottom of its quagmire, and there is a valued Arab-Islamic bloc that has decided to play the role of a "firefighter", if not out of love for Muawiya, as in the popular Arab proverb.
I believe that the removal of the specter of war, even if temporarily, would not have happened without this intense political counteroffensive led by the capitals of the active region, in addition to the promise of flexibility in the Iranian discourse, and American fears of a scenario of a blitzkrieg turning into a long-term war, and the repercussions and consequences of all control and control. Regional mediation countries are building on this flexibility and fears at the same time, and are seeking innovative ways to find a political solution to the crisis that will save the region from painful and lasting torment.
The second team: "The Engine of Evil"
On the other hand, the fascist right-wing government in Tel Aviv, with its political, security and military levels, and with the active support of its "lobbies" in the United States and the world, is doing its utmost to thwart mediation efforts and efforts for a political solution.
Rushing to the negotiating tables, pushing trenches and stockpiling giant rocket launchers, mobilizing armies of collaborators and agents, and fabricating intelligence reports recalling some of what happened on the eve of the 2003 Iraq war.
Only Israel wants this war to be comprehensive and final, and not to end except with the overthrow of the regime itself, based on a "position assessment" that believes that the main danger to it lies not only in Iran's nuclear and missile programs, nor only in its support for its allies, but also in the survival of the regime itself, and that without the overthrow of this regime, the threat will not disappear, even if Iran's nuclear fangs are extracted and its ballistic fingernails are trimmed. The regime, according to Tel Aviv's developer, is the very threat, and it is capable of rebuilding its elements of power and power, albeit only after a while.
Israel alone does not weigh in and does not fear the consequences of the "next day", but what is rumored about the dangers of the scenario of chaos and division, the outbreak of a series of wars, and the resurgence of waves of immigration, asylum and "terrorism" are desired and desirable results, and serve the Israeli national security theory, and meet the aspiration of the old renewed Zionist project, by dividing the entire region into Shiite states, rival sects and nations, so that it will be its own.
The "most powerful and dominant minority", and perhaps even the "largest minority" in the mosaic of the region stretching from the Caspian to the eastern Mediterranean, passing through the Turkish plateau.
Even Washington, which is mobilizing its fleets and rebuilding its military arsenals in the countries of the region, does not share the ultimate goal of the next war, its ally, Israel. Trump wants it as a lightning strike, with a great impact, and he certainly does not want to slide into an extended war, and the last thing he wants to see is the pictures of coffins returning home loaded with American soldiers who died far from "America First."
Only Israel deserves to be described as the "engine of evil", a rogue state that does not stop destabilizing the region and sowing the seeds of tension and conflict in it.
Three Tracks
We don't know where the U.S. administration and its fickle president will end up, and what will be the drivers that will contribute to the formulation of his final decision. No one has a definitive answer to the question of the next step, and perhaps Trump himself is still confused about his options. But we extrapolate from a number of more serious scenarios:
The first is that the Nobel Peace Prize-seeking president responds to regional mediation efforts and leans toward peace and negotiated solutions, which is a possible scenario, at least 50 percent, especially if Tehran shows enough political flexibility to make reaching an agreement possible and avoid itself from the bitter cup of war.
Second, and equally likely (50 percent), to go for a limited military operation, whose objectives are carefully chosen, and as quickly as possible. Its goal is to prioritize the scenario of "regime change from within", albeit within a path that has been extended for years, to ensure that the scenario of chaos, division, and wars is avoided, and to get involved in what Washington has no desire for: involvement in a new broad and long-term war.
The third is unlikely, although it is wise not to withdraw it from circulation, and is represented in a degree of consistency with the Israeli desire and interest to carry out a large and protracted military action that will end in the overthrow of the regime and leave the results to the deluge, in the hope that forces and groups affiliated with the West will be able to take control of affairs, albeit after a while.
Therefore, it is worth trying, as the countries of the region are now able to activate their presence and "positive" role, to maximize the chances of the first scenario and to ward off the danger of limited or all-out war, which is also worth meeting with Tehran with political flexibility that will help the mediators achieve what they went for, and for which they did.
In the Iranian leaks, there is something that indicates that what is said in public is not necessarily the same as what is said behind closed doors, and this is what motivates the mediators and charges them with renewed energy, which is the same thing, which raises the concern of Israel and raises the level of "adrenaline" in the veins of its most extremist and fascist leaders.
