Afrasianet - French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barot has toured the Gulf states, visiting the Strait of Hormuz on a mission aimed at anticipating the post-war era, French newspaper Le Monde said. But the visit, which ended on Friday, took place under the threat of renewed conflict.
Saudi Arabia expects new U.S. strikes in the next 48 hours targeting Iran's civilian infrastructure. Such strikes, which U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened since the end of March, could be considered war crimes and would trigger a similar Iranian response targeting the Gulf states.
France tried to influence the stalled negotiations between the United States and Iran during the fragile ceasefire that lasted for about 30 days, but coordination of positions seems difficult between Europeans, who fear the high economic cost of closing the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf states, which are directly suffering from the repercussions of the crisis, despite their continued refusal to engage in dialogue with Tehran.
The Gulf states appear deeply divided in the face of these threats. Saudi Arabia, which has not been subjected to much Iranian attacks, does not want to escalate. The United Arab Emirates, on the other hand, supports the continuation of military operations, having been the main target of Iranian strikes for more than a month.
In the long term, Le Monde says, Paris sees the possibility of common ground with these countries, which feel weakened by the administration's policies but still rely on Washington's security protection. France believes that this is an opportunity to strengthen cooperation with the Gulf states in the fields of defence and economic security.
Le Monde went on to say that Paris is seeking to develop new military partnerships with these countries, which appreciate their support in intercepting Iranian missiles and drones during the early days of the conflict. France also notes that the Gulf states are reassessing their defense systems, including air defense, jamming systems, and various military capabilities.
On the other hand, Le Monde explains, Iran has succeeded in exploiting the divisions among the Gulf states. During the first weeks of the war, its strikes appeared indiscriminate, but they quickly became more precise and organized, despite significant damage to their command centers. This strategy has deepened the division among the Gulf states, with hardliner countries, such as the UAE and Bahrain, being hit harder, while more neutral countries such as Qatar and Oman have been less struck.
For example, Qatar halted LNG production at the beginning of the conflict, which contributed to reducing its vulnerability to attacks, despite damage to some of its facilities. For the UAE, this war was an existential shock. Abu Dhabi does not see the possibility of a peace deal with Iran, but rather supports continued military pressure and hopes in the long term for the fall of the Iranian regime.
Tensions have also escalated within the Gulf camp, especially between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, after Abu Dhabi made unilateral oil decisions and its exit from OPEC, which has angered Riyadh, which is considering possible response measures, Le Monde says, adding that Saudi Arabia, in turn, seeks to establish a regional framework for dialogue that includes Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan, with the aim of achieving a regional balance and opening the door to negotiations with Iran, and possibly reaching a non-aggression agreement in the future.
France is cautious about these regional initiatives, which do not include Western powers, but welcomes any efforts that could contribute to moving the negotiations forward, Le Monde explains, noting that the Gulf states still rely on the United States to address the Iranian nuclear file, while preferring to discuss Iran's missile program within a regional framework.
Ultimately, Le Monde says, this crisis reveals deep divisions within the Gulf states, and shifts in the balance of power and alliances in the region, in light of the escalation of tension with Iran and the decline of confidence in the American role.
