Afrasianet - In the round, we monitor topics that address the impact of the Iranian war on the ambition of the Gulf states to diversify their economies away from oil, and call on Europe to follow China's approach to get out of its current crisis .
We begin our tour with the Washington Post and an op-ed by Evan Halber and Rachel Chasson, "War in Iran Threatens the Gulf's Ambition to Establish an Economy Beyond Oil," which begins with an emphasis on the fact that Iran's war has become a test of the future of the wealthy Gulf states, which have established themselves as global financial centers and increasingly seek to establish themselves as major tourism hubs and technological powerhouses.
Even if the United States and Iran succeed in reaching an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane, the conflict will have profound effects on the Gulf region's economic plans.
Security vulnerabilities, coupled with the complex geographical nature that have cast a bleak shadow over the future of the region's fossil fuel economy, also threaten emerging sectors, and the possibility that Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz at any moment could undermine the confidence of foreign investors and undermine the Gulf states' reputation as safe havens for business.
The turmoil in Asian economies already facing severe fuel shortages, factory closures, and skyrocketing fertilizer prices as a result of the disruption of navigation in the strait are prompting leaders there to reassess their trade dependence on the Gulf states.
Financial institutions are also beginning to question the feasibility of bolstering their operations in a region where their headquarters could become targets for drone strikes, as well as tech companies that face the risk of losing government funding that supports giant data center projects.
The landscape is becoming more and more uncertain about the possibility of restoring oil and gas revenues, which are still necessary to finance the region's economic transformation, while countries affected by price shocks caused by the war have rushed to look for alternative energy sources, which could permanently reduce global demand for oil and gas.
In Kuwait, the fallout from the war reveals that the near-free electricity system accustomed to citizens and businesses may be unsustainable, as power cuts have begun to spread as demand for energy relative to supply increases, while the government is reluctant to build new plants because of the high cost of subsidizing them.
The authors, Evan Halber and Rachel Chasson, conclude by noting that the current crisis will also prompt some Gulf states to reconsider the generous subsidy policies and free services that are a hallmark of the region, as well as the challenges and severe pressures that lie ahead for the tourism and real estate sectors, which are a source of pride for Gulf leaders.
"Is Europe following China's example?"
Turning to the British newspaper The Guardian and an op-ed by Mark Leonard titled "Europe Should Adopt a China-Like Approach If It Wants to Survive Our Turbulent Times," he begins by noting that the United States and Israel have sparked the war in Iran, but that China and Europe, excluding the parties directly involved in the conflict, are most likely to bear the consequences.
While European leaders are stunned by the sharp rise in energy prices, China has handled the crisis with remarkable calm and confidence, because China has been more prepared for what he has called an "era of disorder," a concept that does not just mean chaos in which rules are broken, but rather a world in which the rules themselves have lost their value and relevance.
While European governments were preoccupied with maintaining the existing world order, China was developing a plan to adapt to a chaotic world, which Beijing realized nearly 15 years ago.
When Europe relied on NATO for its security, on the World Trade Organization for its trade, and on Russia and the Gulf states for its energy, China was quietly stockpiling oil, food, and semiconductors, consolidating its control over global markets for rare metals, strategic metals, and future technologies.
While the world is preoccupied with the U.S. political landscape under Trump, the greatest long-term risk is that China could outmaneuver Europe economically, weaken its defenses, dismantle its industrial base, and make it more vulnerable to pressure and blackmail.
As for the industries of the future, the shortage of fossil fuels caused by the Iran war is prompting Europeans to rekindle their interest in the clean energy transition, but the key elements of this transition, from batteries, electric cars, solar panels, and even wind energy supply chains, are largely controlled by Chinese companies.
Europe embarks on a large-scale rearmament to counter allegations of escalating Russian threats, making it dependent on China, Russia's largest trading partner, for the necessary technologies for this armament, as 80 percent of the global drone supply chain is Chinese-made, as well as the European Union's dependence on China for 97 percent of its magnesium needs, a key ingredient in the manufacture of fighter jets, tanks, and some types of munitions.
To avoid a future in which it becomes poorer and less able to defend itself, Europe needs to have independent will and the ability to act in a world that has lost its stable bases, and that requires it to behave in a China-like manner, perhaps using some of the tactics that Beijing itself has used to employ.
Europe is required to take this approach today because the window of time before its industries permanently lose to China is narrowing too fast, so Europeans should stop the flow of their capital to the United States, and instead direct it toward massive investments in green technology, artificial intelligence, and defense industries.
When European governments begin to focus on how to survive in a chaotic world rather than just trying to maintain order, Europe's governments will be better able to confront the multiple threats posed by the "age of disorder."
