Afrasianet - Jalal Al Warghi - The Labour Party, which leads the current government, did not have the support of the historic victory achieved by the party in the general election held in 2024, in which it won 412 seats out of 650, achieving a comfortable majority that signaled a new era and political stability after a decade of difficult years that the country and the main political parties went through. The Epstein scandal, which was picked up by opposition parties to demand Starmer's resignation.
It is noteworthy that the Epstein crisis, which was exposed in the United States and shook world public opinion, in which US President Donald Trump – whose name is mentioned thousands of times in documents related to the scandal – appeared to be a survivor, while British Prime Minister Starmer, who was not named in the case, is facing a crisis that has deepened his critical situation.
The opposition is launching a fierce attack on Starmer and demanding his resignation over his appointment of Peter Mandelson as Britain's ambassador to New York.
The opposition is pushing in that direction after documents released in Epstein's case revealed that Mandelson had been in a close relationship with him for many years.
The documents point to Mandelson's leak of sensitive information about Epstein's British economy when he was in the British government.
Key observations that must be made to understand the contours of the crisis in the Labour government led by Keir Starmer in light of the Epstein case:
• First, in the last ten years, Britain has had six prime ministers, about a third of the total number of heads of government since World War II, in just a decade. This reflects an unprecedented state of political and governmental instability in Britain.
This is a fragility that is not limited to one political party, but includes various political parties, and is reflected in the general situation in the country.
• Second, the governmental and political instability in Britain is linked to the last ten years, since 2016, the year in which the controversial Brexit referendum was held, and in which the British voted "yes" in a move that was considered at the time and is still surprising and immature, and sparks a wide debate in the country about its haste and also because of its clear negative repercussions reflected in the steadily declining figures for the British economy.
• Third, the situation of Keir Starmer and his party is very remarkable. The party, which won a comfortable victory and holds a majority in parliament, is suffering from a decline in its popularity.
Since the first months of his tenure as prime minister, Starmer has faced difficulties even within his own party, and has repeatedly put forward scenarios for his replacement within the party. Some attribute this to his lack of political charisma and lack of political and ideological nerves within the party.
• Fourth, some leaders of the ruling party attribute the fragility of Starmer's position to the internal election that took place in 2020 to choose a party leader to succeed Jeremy Corbyn.
It is widely believed that Morgan McSweeney, in collaboration with Peter Mandelson, orchestrated the breakup of the Labour Party from the left, and then gradually excluded all those affiliated with this current, enshrining a new leadership closer to the right, in a break with the traditional popular depth.
The results of the July 2024 election, which Labour won, show that as much as this historic victory brought the party back to power after 16 years in opposition, it also revealed a striking irony: double turnout on the one hand, and Labour had the lowest voter turnout in its history. The result of the vote appeared to be protest and punitive par excellence against the Conservative Party, not because of the attractiveness of Starmer's Labour Party.
• Fifth, the resounding fall of influential figures in the Labour Party such as Peter Mandelson and Downing Street chief of staff Morgan McSweeney will not be just a passing event for Starmer, but an earthquake that has disrupted his leadership of the party and the government.
Mandelson and McSweeney are the cornerstones of Starmer's control of the government and the party, and their expulsion made Starmer seem to drive his cart in one wheel.
McSweeney was not just the chief of staff at Downing Street and the keeper of Starmer's secrets, he was the maker of Starmer's journey to the leadership of the Labour Party, the architect of his narrow circle, and his government team. So some believe that Starmer's resignation is only a matter of time after McSweeney's resignation.
However, this estimate may be overestimated, especially since Starmer, unlike most former Labour leaders, is not an ideological figure, which is a strength and a weakness at the same time, and it seems that this time the Prime Minister has turned it into a strength, taking a distance from the staggering right-wing current within the party to lean to the left, towards left-wing labor leaders, as a step that represents the stage of salvation to save his government and party position.
A move that if he succeeds in enacting, could save his government from collapse and the Labour Party from squandering a historic victory.
• Sixth, there are great fears within the party about the adventure of changing Prime Minister Starmer.
In addition to the lack of a ready figure to lead the party and government at the current stage, to replace Starmer, many believe that the latter's departure now will deepen the crisis of the party and the government, and open the country to a premature general election scenario.
Labour's change of Starmer will prompt all opposition parties to call for a new election: an election that takes place today could be the biggest beneficiary of Nigel Farage's far-right Reform Party, which is given the lead by all polls.
Those who reject Starmer's change also believe that his parliamentary majority, national and international entitlements, require government stability, whether in terms of economic recovery, the risks of the Ukraine war and Russian threats to the country, as well as the serious repercussions of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, or even in terms of giving the government the opportunity to work on implementing its program, thus restoring the confidence of voters, which may weaken the chances of the extreme right in the next general elections.
• Seventh, the situation of the Labour Party government led by Starmer complicates the rise of populism in Britain, as in other European countries. But the situation is further complicated in Britain due to the close ties between right-wing leader and Reform Party leader Nigel Farage and US President Donald Trump and part of his team in the White House.
In addition to Trump's repeated statements in support of Farage, as well as his reception and celebration in the United States, Farage receives support from prominent American figures such as Elon Musk, Steve Bannon, and Republican members of Congress.
The November 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy report also provoked the right-wing movement in Europe and its image as a savior of Western identity, standing up to immigration and immigrants that threaten the continent's identity.
These internal and external contexts in Britain have made Farage's party now leading the polls by a wide margin over the rest of the political parties, and expectations are increasing that it will win the next general election.
• Eighth: What is certain is that the stormy crisis that the Labour government is going through, which toppled the symbols of the right within the party, proved that the party, which has a long history of associations with unions and social democratic tendencies, is today shaken off by the Epstein scandal, the culture of three decades of choice of what is known as the "New Labour Party" led by Tony Blair, of which Peter Mandelson was one of its main godfathers, to stop at one fact:
The party's shift to the center, with all its leftist traditions, should never have meant a departure from the party's political ethics, which the "right-wing" current that controls the party has underestimated in order to pursue corrupt money and lobbies that have become policy-making and decisions on the margins of state institutions, and even on remote islands such as Epstein Island.
This requires the party today to reconcile with its history, its social legacy, its popular depth, and the secret of its strength and brilliance.
• Ninth: It is striking that the political crisis that is ravaging Britain, whether in terms of traditional parties or in terms of successive governments, reflects a deeper crisis that concerns not only Britain but also the pivotal countries in Europe such as France and Germany.
Just as the world today senses and hears the saying of the end of the world order that has ruled the world since the end of the Second World War, and what this requires in terms of assimilation, development and adaptation, profound changes and transformations that Britain and European countries are witnessing are collapsing and are directly reflected on systems of government and institutions, which need to be reviewed, renewed, and kept pace.
• Tenth, the crisis in the British Labour government today, which has been strongly deepened by the Epstein documents, may not lead to the fall of the Starmer government in the foreseeable future, but it will force it to rearrange its cards, including sweeping reshuffles in his government, setting clear goals for the stage that respond to the aspirations of the electorate, as well as launching a clear communication plan, in which Starmer and his government are still clearly weak.
But the invisible war within the party and between its poles over Starmer's succession will not fade easily, especially with the party expected to pull back significantly in local elections in the coming days, with polls suggesting Labour would lose more than 2,000 local seats.
Starmer's temporary escape from the aftermath of the Epstein scandal does not mean the end of his government's crisis, but will put him in front of difficult tests in terms of restoring the confidence of his party and the British electorate in the next stage, especially since an opinion poll conducted within days indicates that half of Britons support the idea of his resignation.
