Afrasianet - U.S. intelligence agencies, at the request of senior officials in President Donald Trump' s administration, are studying possible Iranian reactions if the president decides to declare a "unilateral victory" in the war on Iran, U.S. officials and sources familiar with the matter have revealed.
The intelligence moves come at a time when the war has become a "heavy political burden" that threatens the Republican Party's chances in the midterm elections scheduled for later this year.
Polls (Reuters/Ipsos) show the war's popularity is declining, with only 26% of Americans believing the campaign is worth its costs, while only 25% believe it has strengthened US security.
Sources familiar with the White House discussions say Trump is "fully aware" of the political price he and his party are paying for the continuation of the war, which erupted two months ago.
On the other hand, the Wall Street Journal revealed that President Trump instructed his aides on Wednesday to prepare for a prolonged blockade on Iran, preferring the option of "economic strangulation" and preventing shipping through ports to the options of bombing or a complete withdrawal.
During a state dinner in the presence of King Charles III, Trump spoke of Iran, saying that "we have defeated this adversary militarily" and "we will never allow this adversary to have a nuclear weapon," adding, "Charles agrees with me more than I agree with myself."
Two scenarios for declaring victory
According to the sources, the intelligence analyzed two scenarios for the Iranian reaction:
• A unilateral victory declaration with the withdrawal of U.S. troops, a scenario that has been speculated on since the early days of the war, while intelligence estimates that Tehran will interpret this action as an "outright victory."
• A unilateral declaration of victory while maintaining a heavy military presence, which Iran is likely to see as a "negotiating tactic," does not necessarily lead to an end to hostilities.
While a final decision has not yet been made, the sources believe that de-escalation could ease political pressure on Trump, but it carries the risk of enabling Iran to rebuild its nuclear and missile programs and threaten Washington's allies.
The sources, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity so they could discuss sensitive intelligence matters, said the aim was to understand the implications of Trump's possible withdrawal from a conflict that some officials and advisers fear could contribute to heavy losses for Republicans in the midterm elections later this year.
The director of the CIA's Office of Public Affairs , Liz Lyons, denied the agency was aware of this specific assessment, while the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.
Pressure on several levels
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly confirmed that the United States is still communicating with the Iranian side about the negotiations, stressing that President Trump "will not rush to make a bad deal" and will not sign any agreement that does not put American national security first, while stressing a commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
For his part, Trump has shown a hardening in the diplomatic track by canceling the visit of his special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner to meet with Iranian officials in Pakistan, stating that dialogue requires a direct initiative from Tehran.
On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant described the Iran-parallel banking system as a "vital artery" for financing violence, while the US State Department confirmed the continuation of a policy of "maximum pressure" to deter the Iranian regime and hold it accountable for threatening US interests.
In return, the IRGC's navy political assistant threatened to burn giant U.S. ships and use the capabilities of the "Resistance Front" to respond with unprecedented military surprises if any new aggression is launched against Iran.
Excluded options
On the ground, the US Central Command revealed the consequences of the continuation of the naval blockade on Iran, as it led to a reduction in the movement of trade, as more than 20 ships are currently docked in the Iranian port of Chabahar, compared to an average of 5 ships per day before the conflict.
On the other hand, 20 days after Trump announced the ceasefire, intensive diplomatic efforts failed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz , after Tehran closed it and planted mines in it, causing global energy prices to rise and gasoline prices domestically in America.
On the military front, the sources pointed out that Iran has taken advantage of the ceasefire, which has been going on since April 8, to extract military materiel, including rocket launchers and drones, that had been buried by US and Israeli bombardment, making the cost of resuming all-out war higher than it was before.
Despite "enormous" domestic pressure to end the war, several military options remain officially on the table, including a renewal of airstrikes targeting Iran's military and political leaders.
In contrast, the possibility of a "ground invasion" of Iranian territory has diminished compared to previous weeks, and is now described as the least likely.
Source: Agencies
