Afrasianet - Oraib Al Rantawi - In a remarkable development of the negotiations on the weapons of resistance in the Gaza Strip, which took place in the Egyptian city of El Alamein, there is currently talk of a "draft agreement" – which some call a "road map" to translate President Donald Trump's 20-point plan, which will soon be turned into a UN Security Council resolution (2803) – which was welcomed by the mediators, and celebrated by Trump as a "historic agreement", and accepted by the resistance factions, accompanied by their own reading, which internalizes a lot of doubt about Tel Aviv's intentions, and fears It is necessary to avoid evasion and maneuvering, regression and relapse, and to mark milestones in the long and bitter process of Palestinian negotiations, with an enemy that has always treated agreements and treaties as short intervals between two wars.
It is the "Agreement of Necessity", as we call it, as we do not celebrate many of its clauses and details, although we do take them, from three perspectives:
• The "priority" is to stop the war of extermination and purge, which is almost in its third year.
• The daily human suffering of 2.3 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip has long been subjected to terror, starvation, and water and medicine shortages.
• Because, once it comes into effect, it will block Israel's dark goals of perpetuating the occupation, the return of settlements, and the imposition of displacement.
However, as we follow the pulse of the bereaved and afflicted people in the Gaza Strip, on live satellite channels, we share with the people of Gaza, its men and women, its elders and children, their intense yearning for a space of hope and relief, as if the war is over, on the ground and not just on paper.
We also share their anticipation and precaution against the coming days, and the usual Israeli rage that may come with to price attacks, killings and destructions, and we share their understandable and justified concern about hostile behavior that has habitually evaded and evaded the implementation of commitments and the fulfilment of commitments.
Official Israel continues to remain silent in the graves in the face of what was announced in Washington and mediation capitals. Its most extreme right raises its beliefs with rejection, threats and threats, its prime minister swallows his tongue unusually, while its most decadent, and not the most moral, army in history continues to kill, destroy and expand the boundaries of its yellow and orange lines.
It is true that Netanyahu, more than ever, is aware that "the American noose extended to him is short," but he has not yet raised a white flag and will not recognize the new agreement as stipulated.
The crux of the matter
The final say in the decision on the direction of the Israeli position will come from a single speaker, President Trump, who is the head of the Peace Council, the initiator, and the most celebrated and applauded of it.
Only he can throw his stick on the rock of Israeli intransigence and split it in two, this is the stud of the Persians, so will Trump do it, and throw his weight behind his "initiative"? Or will the well-known lobbying groups and "lobbies" have a different opinion, which may prevent it from proceeding until the end of the half and nipping the agreement in the bud?
Netanyahu, like us, and perhaps more than us, understands Trump's need for achievement here and success there, easing the burden of his "frustration" on the strait front, Iran, energy wars, and navigation. Netanyahu adhered to "hospitality etiquette" on his recent visit to Washington, and in the White House, which he entered through a back door, he did not dare to put forward "a plan to win the war against the leader of the evil camp."
This time no one will listen to him, they have listened to him before, and they have seen how the result was. He is content with gestures and hints, and he is happy that Trump did not exert more pressure on him on the fronts of Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, but he knows in his heart that he has received enough pressure to curb his open appetite for war on Iran, and that any further pressure, on other fronts, will be beyond the man's ability to bear and survive. The first election is coming?
It is true that Netanyahu, more than ever, is aware that "the American rope is short," but he has not yet raised a white flag, and he will not recognize the new agreement as stipulated. He will not say "no" to Trump as a provocation, which will increase his anger and frustration with him, in addition to his anger and frustration, but he will not say an outright "yes" either.
He will take inspiration from the positions of his predecessors from Likud leaders in previous governments, under Ariel Sharon, and accept a "road map" that is bombed with a number of observations and reservations, which will probably exceed its fourteen clauses, each of which is enough to completely torpedo the agreement.
It will resort to interpreting each of these clauses in a way that serves the goals of the war of cleansing, extermination and displacement, it will put weapons at the top of the priorities of the road map, and the starting point for its implementation, and it will turn the lives of those who will monitor and verify the proper implementation of commitments into an intolerable hell, and it will disrupt until the last breath, the idea of withdrawal, even if it comes gradually, and is governed by the rule of "step for step", that is Netanyahu, and that is the extreme right in Israel, and we have enough experience with this entity to not be stung by The same hole, over and over again.
What Netanyahu will be reluctant to say in public for fear of breaking his contract with the Trump administration, will be said by practices on the ground, while arguments and pretexts are always "undemanded," in the words of our Lebanese brothers.
Between two agreements
The implementation of the agreement last October required ten months of "low-cost" but destructive war for people, trees and stones in the Gaza Strip, during which Palestinians from the Gaza Strip paid more than 1,220 martyrs and 3,380 wounded, and the occupation expanded by biting 17% of this narrow strip, which is crowded with its population, during which the Israelis allowed only a third or slightly less, of the planned and agreed aid to enter the Strip, while recovery, shelter and reconstruction efforts are still at point zero, and the hospitals in the Gaza Strip are complaining of a shortage Medicine and equipment are scarce, water is scarce, food is scarce, and diseases are rampant in the Gaza Strip and kill its people.
What Netanyahu will be reluctant to say in public for fear of breaking his contract with the Trump administration, he will say it in practice on the ground, while the arguments and pretexts are always "undemanding," in the words of our Lebanese brothers.
Perhaps the awareness of the people of Gaza of this bitter truth, which they have learned in the most difficult ways, explains their joy tainted with anxiety and reservation, and perhaps also explains the precautions and caution that surrounds the positions of the Palestinian factions and Hamas's clarifications and explanations of the new agreement.
Will the agreement find a safe and viable path to implementation this time, and in both directions?
In my opinion, the Palestinian side in this agreement seems to be loyal to it, which would not have drunk the cup of poison before it was signed, if it were not for its deep sense of the extent of the pain and suffering endured by its social environment, which would not have accepted Palmer except to avoid it.
The liquidation plan prepared for the Palestinian cause, with its declared goals, which no one in Israel is trying to hide or camouflage anymore, dictates a desperate search for a "breathtaking moment" after an asymmetrical war that has been unprecedented in history, which has been exposed to the ugliest pages of abandonment, disillusionment and collusion by their compatriots in the homeland, nationalism and religion.
But what about the other side of the agreement, which has not yet spoken? Israel, which is on the verge of an Oct. 27 deadline, will Netanyahu, his party, his coalition and his government allow "free gifts" to be given to the camp of the opponents lurking? At a time when the scales of Netanyahu and the coalition are oscillating between falling and falling in an election that is only two months or a little more away?
After the elections, Israel will need a few months to form a new government, during which Netanyahu and his government will take over the tasks of "caretaker," with a solid argument and pretext: a transitional government that cannot make major decisive decisions?
Perhaps it is the awareness of the people of Gaza of this bitter truth, which they have learned in the most difficult ways, that explains their joy tainted with anxiety and reservation, and perhaps it also explains the precaution and caution that surrounds the positions of the Palestinian factions and Hamas's clarifications and explanations of the new agreement
Given the delicate balance of internal forces, the opposition bloc, which is likely to win more seats in the 25th Knesset, may be unable to form a new government, or a stable government, and Israel may return to the cycle of "early elections," a record number of which it held in just a few years.
This means, among other things, that Israel, which is unwilling to implement such an agreement, neither the current government, nor the current opposition, by the way, may find itself unable to do so. The absence of both desire and ability puts a major question mark in the way of translating the agreement, let alone the developments that may arise in the arena of open crises, America's war on Iran, and the raging conflict over the seas, straits, and sea lanes.
This does not mean at all that the agreement was necessarily born dead, and that the ways of translating it have become completely blocked, even before they have been opened, but it is a realistic-rational approach, which is meant to warn against raising the ceiling of expectations, and to continue to spread the illusion and preach the premature harvest.
Three scenarios
It keeps us reading the agreement and the circumstances that surrounded it, with three scenarios for the near future:
• The first is the most compatible with the Palestinians and the least in line with the wishes of the Israelis, which is to bring the agreement into effect, such as the Trump administration putting enough weight behind the agreement, urging its implementation, and urging the removal of obstacles in its way.
As for the mediators, behind whom was the "Group of Eight" which was the "legal midwife" that extracted Resolution 2803 from the womb of the 20-point initiative, and behind them is a world peace council, Trump said in describing it as the most important and high-level in history, do all of them have the ability to enforce respect for the agreement and bring it into effect?
I think the chances of such a scenario exist, but they are not high.
• Second, if Tel Aviv works to overthrow the agreement from within with a "slow death", emptying it of its content, booby-trapping it with reservations and verification procedures, and procrastinating and procrastination in the implementation of each of its clauses, or its implementation at a minimum, just as it did in the previous agreement ten months ago, then the situation in Gaza will remain the same, with little progress here, and its breakthrough there is limited, without changing the essence of the scene.
I think this scenario is the most likely.
Third, the scenario of an explosion and a return to a large-scale war, on the basis that the Palestinians have nothing to lose except their hunger and thirst, and perhaps in a way that satisfies the appetite for murder and destruction on the other side, and in connection with the developments and transformations that may occur in the region, tempts the idea of decisiveness on several fronts. This is a very bad scenario, but it may not become the worst, if the situation in Gaza continues as it is.
In my opinion, the chances of this scenario are lower than the chances of the previous ones for many reasons, which neither the place nor the article has the space to delve into.
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