Afrasianet - Dr. Abdullah Khalifa Al-Shayji - More than 110 days after the second Trump-Netanyahu war on Iran, which could have been avoided through negotiations, mediations and mutual concessions from both sides, had there been no incitement, agendas and miscalculations, and its lack of strategic planning and failure to achieve its goals, and after the extension of five truces, and the exhausting state of no war and non-peace, especially since the mediators played an important role that almost achieved breakthroughs to avoid war.
The Sultanate of Oman played an important role, and before it, the State of Qatar played an important role in bringing views closer and bridging the gap at the beginning – and later in the Pakistani mediation was supported – until the final stages of the negotiations – with visits by delegations from the Qatari Foreign Ministry, multiple contacts between President Trump and Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad, and a leadership role for Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman and the Qatari team.
President Trump praised Qatar's mediation and role in his meeting and contacts with the Emir of the State of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad. Iranian President Masoud Bezeshkian also called Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad after the electronic signing of the memorandum of understanding.
In my article last week in Al-Quds Al-Arabi, I wondered whether the framework agreement will end the war of miscalculations, stressing that "the biggest obstacle remains Netanyahu's attempt to sabotage and mine the agreement with the escalation he is carrying out in southern Lebanon.
The reality is that until the details of the framework agreement are revealed, the state of disparity and contradiction between the American and Iranian narratives is revealed, the discussion and resolution of the thorny files is completed, and a comprehensive agreement is signed within 60 days that ends the vacillation of non-war and non-peace, we are not yet at the end of the war, but we are facing a truce and a test of trust between the Trump administration and Iran!!
Today, after the announcement of the fourteen terms of the memorandum of understanding, the entry of the framework agreement into its first phase, and the transition to the second phase of confidence-building, and the provision of the required climate and ground for the discussion of thorny and important issues and files, which include Iran's nuclear program, the amount of highly enriched uranium, the years of Iran's freezing of its nuclear program, enrichment, the enrichment rate, Iran's missile program, Iran's relationship with its network of allies and proxies in the region, the lifting of sanctions, and the mechanism for releasing Iran's financial assets distributed in several countries around the world.
The agreement was reached electronically by Presidents Trump and Bazeshkian to declare an immediate cessation of war on all fronts between the United States and Iran and their allies, contain the escalation, set a 60-day time frame for negotiation and reach a solution to the thorny issues that have been left and were not covered by the framework agreement to reach a comprehensive and final agreement.
The memorandum of understanding calls for a permanent ceasefire on all fronts—including Lebanon, and respect for Lebanon's sovereignty. Iran's enduring commitment not to seek to acquire or develop nuclear weapons and to address its stockpile of enriched material under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). (Submit for discussion in the second phase within 60 days.) Commitment to open the Strait of Hormuz for transit and freedom of navigation for commercial cargo ships and oil and gas tankers without imposing fees.
The naval blockade of Iran's ports was gradually lifted within 30 days. and the resumption of the export of Iranian oil and its derivatives. The United States is pledging to work with regional partners to develop a plan for Iran's reconstruction and economic development, and to issue the necessary financial licenses for it.
President Trump described the deal as "complete" and achieves the primary goal of permanently depriving Iran of a nuclear weapon, and that the "policy of maximum pressure" has brought Iran to the table. Despite the size of the concessions made by the U.S. side, President Trump commented that "Iran has surrendered unconditionally," and asserted that he was able to prevent Israel from attacking Lebanon.
But hours after Trump's assurances, Netanyahu ignited southern Lebanon in the most violent escalation to thwart the deal amid anger and resentment from President Trump and his vice president. Harsh criticism from all sides, including leaders of Trump's Republican Party, including his former vice president, Pence, and lawmakers, members and hawkish leaders of the Republican Party.
The chairman of the Intelligence Committee and the chairman of the Military Services Committee are Trump's Republican Party hawks Senator Ted Cruz and Senator Lindsey Graham. It has been described as akin to giving the Trump administration a lot of concessions to Iran, with a lot of "carrots and a few sticks."
They considered the deal to offer significant economic concessions to Iran, the Reconstruction Fund and the lifting of the embargo. It does not respond to fundamental issues and does not weaken Iran's regional influence. Despite the assertions of Iran and even President Trump, the agreement includes a halt to military operations between Israel and Hezbollah.
President Trump repeated his characterization of Netanyahu as reckless and crazy and hurled insults and reprimands at him in a leaked phone call. He confidently stressed his ability to force Israel to abide by the memorandum of understanding "because they are doing what I say." And that "without my existence, there would be no Israel" and "Israel would have been crushed"!!
Vice President J.D. Vance emerged at the forefront with an unprecedented attack and harsh criticism in interviews on satellite news, defending the framework agreement and criticizing extremist ministers, especially Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, without naming them, and in a veiled message to Netanyahu, declaring, "The world is against you and we are the ones who protect you.
President Trump is the only head of state in the world who is sympathetic to Israel and he leads the world's superpower." The United States has provided you with two-thirds of the defensive weapons that protect you from American taxpayers. He concluded with harsh criticism: "If I were a member of the Israeli government, I would not have attacked the only strong ally I have left in the whole world."
From the overall strategic analysis and comments on the results of the absurd Trump-Netanyahu war, the failure to achieve any of its goals, from the concessions of the memorandum of understanding without guarantees, and the defiance and rejection of Netanyahu and the American and Israeli right, and with the continuation of the military escalation in Lebanon to blow up the agreement, he confirms the accuracy of the equation: "Trump lost the war and did not achieve peace"!!
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Dr. Abdullah Khalifa Al-Shayji - Professor in the Department of Political Science, Kuwait University
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