Afrasianet - The battle of the Al-Aqsa flood revealed the true face of the Israeli occupation state, as it showed its image as a brutal criminal state that kills women, children and journalists, pursues displacement and starvation as a weapon, and targets mosques, hospitals and shelters, which led to the deterioration of Israel's image as a liberal democratic state, in exchange for the emergence of its image as a rogue and pariah state, whether in the eyes of world public opinion, or even in the eyes of a large part of its citizens, whose divisions are stronger than ever. And here it is possible 60% of Israelis believe Israel is less respected in the world.

Emilating isolation

When Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz declared UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres persona non grata in Israel, accusing him of supporting terrorist organizations, it was an example of Israel antagonizing the secretary-general of the largest international organization. Not only that, but Israel has become a state stigmatized by the International Court of Justice, the International Criminal Court, the Human Rights Council and other international institutions.

On the other hand, the media recently reported a letter from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu describing French President Macron's position as shameful, after Macron called for stopping arms supplies to Israel in order to help settle the conflict, and Netanyahu added that "Israel is able to win with and without you." A few days earlier, delegations from several countries were leaving the UN General Assembly Hall, which seemed almost empty as the Israeli prime minister took the podium to speak.

The state of isolation experienced by the occupying Power has made many think about this reality, and is it a transient trend that can be addressed as the dust of war clears, or has it become a broader process, more entrenched and much more difficult than the ability to address?

In this regard, the study of researcher Pnina Sharvit Baruch – a reserve colonel who worked in the international law department of the Military Prosecutor's Unit for 20 years and is responsible for advising Israeli army commanders and decision-makers at the government level – indicates that with the intensification of trends in the isolation of the Israeli occupation state at all levels, the possibility of returning to the previous status seems impossible.

The deterioration of the international perception of the occupying power has become indisputable, and many Israelis have become desperate for the possibility of modifying this image in light of the increasing boycott of Israeli companies, the withdrawal of investments from the entity, and the avoidance of inviting Israelis to cultural, academic and sports events, and this has even reached the medical sector, in addition to the global protests and considering Israel a symbol of global evil among young people.

One might say that this isolation has not yet been translated into practical executive measures that put pressure on the occupation and deter it from continuing its aggressive behavior, but in fact, turning Israel into a global stain is not easy, as it gives legitimacy to all measures that can be implemented against it. As the occupying power persists, the isolation is likely to increase further.

The issue of Israel's isolation is met in Israel today with two perspectives, and this confirms the state of division. The first view senses the danger of isolation and the deterioration of the image of the entity, turning it into a burden even on the countries of the Western camp, which sabotages the path of normalization with regional countries that used to see it as a gateway to the West. The second view is condescending and ignoring reality and continuing to persist. However, those with a first view are desperate for the possibility of change for the better, despite their recommendations for a number of reforms, including changing the behavior of those with The second look that perpetuates solitude.

Internal divisions

There is no doubt that internal divisions existed in the entity of the Israeli occupation state before the event of the seventh of October 2023, and they worsened after it. With all Netanyahu's attempts to show that Israel is united, the fact that all these manifestations were temporary and formal and did not cover up the reality of the divisions and could not hide them, so that his feeling of the need to say that "there will be no civil war in Israel" several months ago was only an indication of The level of apprehension of this scenario.

In fact, it is no longer only a matter of worsening divisions, but Arab and foreign scientific studies and readings even from within Zionist society have begun to talk about the possibility of the development of divisions.

In this context, Walid Abdel Hai's study entitled "The Black Swan in the Israeli Future", which was issued by the Al-Zaytouna Center for Studies in September 2024, indicates that the probability of civil war in Israel is 40.3%, and this percentage can increase if the two factors of the resistance's resilience in Gaza on the one hand, and the expansion of the effects of the external threat, which leads to the expansion of political polarization in the occupying state. Currently, we see that these two factors are present, and there is steadfastness of the resistance, and an expansion of the effects of danger. external, which threatens to increase this percentage.

Israeli writers – such as David Ohana in his article in Haaretz – are talking about growing fears that these divisions could develop into internal conflict and possibly civil war among Israelis. This is explained by the fact that the common identity of Israelis has

suffered major cracks within a year since Operation Al-Aqsa flood.

Indeed, former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said clearly before October 7: "The civil war in Israel is coming and remember my words." After October 7, Olmert said, "It is not far off today that the Jewish militias will use the weapons they have acquired to eliminate us leftists." Labor Party leader and former Northern Command commander Yair Golan has also called for large-scale civil disobedience and called on his supporters to refuse to join the army's reserve service.

The protests in the Israeli occupation state have become a periodic scene in Tel Aviv, whether before the Al-Aqsa flood due to the judicial coup, or in their most intense form, because of the protest against the position of the Netanyahu government, and the demand for the signing of a prisoner exchange agreement after all conditions have matured.

These protests reached their peak after the killing of 6 Israeli prisoners due to the behavior of the Israeli army in Gaza, which relies on force to return prisoners, as the number of demonstrators reached nearly 770,000 demonstrators, a number that is historically unprecedented in the occupying state. This protest was also accompanied by a one-day general strike organized by the largest trade union in Israel, which indicates that these protests will return and escalate with the conditions of the internal environment.

Large protests are one manifestation of the division of Zionist society, and some former intellectuals and politicians argue that unless these protests turn into rebellion or general civil

disobedience, the ability of the other party leading the government coalition to overcome them will remain.

This argument is an indication that the current state of the protests may be part of a situation that can evolve from peaceful protest to civil rebellion, and then to violence against the government, especially since all civil war operations experienced by other countries witnessed such manifestations before the outbreak of the civil war.

Today, Israel is entering a new phase of war through aggression against Lebanon, which may lead to the declaration of a state of emergency and the postponement of elections scheduled for 2026. Such decisions can lead to violent protests. Reference is made to Ben Gvir's politicization of settlers in the West Bank, laying the groundwork for the construction of private factional militias that may carry out destabilizing acts.

The equation of stability of the Israeli occupation state, like any other entity, is linked to internal and external factors, and external isolation and internal divisions are increasing due to the behavior of the occupying power since the seventh of October 2023. Further fragmentation, disintegration and deterioration of these factors, together with external pressure from the adversaries of the occupying Power, contribute to deepening this path, which would weaken the occupying Power and harm its fragile stability.

If we add to that the factors of its being an occupying Power that has usurped the rights, land and sanctities of a people, the shaky confidence and the obsession with survival, which is linked to distortions in perceptions and confusion in decisions, are factors

that accelerate the deterioration of the stability of the Israeli occupying Power more than expectations.