Afrasianet - Khaled Barakat - Any military adventure against Tehran will not be a "precision surgical strike" or a "war of hours and days", but a project of a long, open war with uncertain results, with a high political, military and economic cost.
In light of the continuous escalation in the region, and the intensification of the confrontation between the resistance camp on the one hand, and the United States and the Zionist enemy entity on the other, many ask the same question: Why has America not yet launched a direct war on Iran? What deters the world's most powerful military power from engaging in an all-out confrontation with the Islamic Republic of Iran, despite all the blockades, sanctions, threats and military maneuvers? The essential answer, simply, is: US imperialism's fear of failure.
The problem for Washington is not that it has military capability; it has a huge arsenal of aircraft carriers, air bases, and smart missiles, but what it lacks today is the ability to guarantee the outcome of the war. All realistic and strategic estimates indicate that any war waged against Iran will quickly turn into an all-out regional war, which may include the fronts of Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine and others, and may even take new forms of resistance that directly threaten US interests in the Gulf.
Any military adventure against Tehran will not be a "delicate surgical strike" or a "war of hours and days", but rather a project of a long, open war with uncertain results, whose political, military and economic costs will be high, and may end with what is more dangerous than military defeat: the collapse of American hegemony globally.
The United States has fought devastating wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and emerged from them without a decisive victory, but it is well aware that Iran is not a besieged state without a backer. It is a regional power with solid institutions, a resilient economy, advanced missile capabilities, and, most importantly, a people that refuses to bow and surrender, revolutionary leadership, international allies, and effective regional popular and military extensions.
If America managed to invade Baghdad and Kabul and regretted it, today it stands helpless in the face of the decision to confront Tehran, because the results of any aggression will not be limited, and will not keep the region as it was.
The U.S. war on Iran may achieve Israel's goals, but it serves no U.S. interest. This very cold fact is abhorred by Trump's supporters in the United States, and the conservative right-wing that Trump has climbed on his shoulders to reach the Oval Office. Israel is also a criminal entity whose name is disgusted by international public opinion because of its daily war crimes, destruction and brutal massacres against Palestinians in Gaza.
Yemen: From the Margins to the Center
One of the most prominent shifts that confuse the American calculations in any possible confrontation is the new Yemeni role in the heart of the resistance camp. Yemen, led by Ansar Allah, has moved from a weak flank to an effective missile and naval spearhead capable of paralyzing navigation in the Red Sea, targeting the Israeli depth, and striking U.S. interests in the Gulf. Yemen's will has been tested more than once and the United States has discovered the result.
Yemen today is not only motivated by solidarity, but also plays a central role within the resistance front, in field and political coordination with Tehran, Beirut, and Baghdad. This qualitative progress means that any war on Iran will not open a single front, but a network of simultaneous fronts, making the decision to war a costly adventure beyond the Pentagon's calculations.
Any U.S. war on Iran would be read in Moscow and Beijing as direct aggression targeting a strategic ally, and might be understood as a prelude to encircling Russia from the southeast, or to cutting off China's path toward the Belt and Road project. Both Beijing and Moscow have sent clear messages—political and military—that the red line is to topple Iran or destroy its regional role by force. This is what Washington is well aware of, and fears more than the Iranian missiles themselves.
Complicating the scene further for Washington is that Iran is not alone in the global arena. For years, the geopolitical map has been undergoing a profound shift in the balance of power. China and Russia are no longer just "watching from afar," but have become key actors in curbing American savagery, particularly in the Gulf and Central Asia.
The current US president, Donald Trump, despite his fiery rhetoric and his penchant for risk-taking, does not have popular support for the war at home, nor does it have the luxury of going to a confrontation that embarrasses Washington in front of Beijing and Moscow - and even Europe - and pushes them to activate economic or even military reactions. He knows that losing prestige to Iran, under the eyes of the major powers, means accelerating the collapse of the American world order and the world's definitive entry into the "post-American" phase.
The American public — divided and economically exhausted — will not tolerate a long and costly war in a region that no longer enjoys the domestic political consensus it was after September 11.
The United States may go to war, but it must take into account:
The first strike failed to cripple Iranian capabilities.
The flare-up of regional fronts at once (Palestine, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq).
Targeting US interests and bases in the Gulf, and the collapse of energy security.
China and Russia are on the line politically, and perhaps militarily, in a dangerous international escalation.
Iran's transformation into a global model of resilience and its growing influence in the postwar era.
What deters America from war is not its keenness on "stability", but the fear of a losing and humiliating war, and the formation of an international coalition, not yet declared, that brings together the resistance camp with a Russian-Chinese backer that forces Washington to think twice before pulling the trigger.
We have entered an age in which America can no longer wage wars whenever and wherever it wants. Iran, with its balance, deterrence and alliance, stands today on the front line of this confrontation, along with stubborn popular forces and resistance that are not easily invincible and do not raise a white flag.