Afrasianet - Mustafa Youssef - A few days after returning to the White House, US President Donald Trump began reshaping the global economic and political landscape, using the same tools that characterized his first term: sanctions, tariff threats, and economic blackmail for political and electoral gain. But this time he faces a more complex global context, with the trade war with China, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, and a deepening economic crisis in the United States.

Trump's vision for the global economy

Trump views foreign policy and the global economy with a mercantile view where there is no room for diplomacy or long-term cooperation, but bargaining and blackmail prevail.

During his previous term, he imposed massive tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, threatening to close markets or raise costs on imports. Now that he is back in office, he continues the same approach, waving further trade restrictions in an effort to force countries to make concessions that serve the American agenda.

Despite his repeated rhetoric about "the world's greatest economy," the United States faces serious challenges, most notably public debt that has exceeded $33 trillion, an unprecedented level that puts the U.S. economy on the brink of a new inflation crisis.

Trade Wars: Bargaining Chip or Dangerous Adventure?

Since 2016, Trump has used tariffs as a negotiating weapon against China, but these policies have not achieved their desired goals. Instead of reducing the trade deficit, this war has disrupted supply chains and, above all, the US economy. 

With his return, Trump threatens to raise tariffs again on Chinese imports, which could increase pressure on the global economy, especially in light of slowing Chinese growth and the deepening US debt crisis.

His policies were not limited to China, but extended to Canada and Mexico, where he pressed to renegotiate trade agreements in a way that would give the United States additional privileges. He also did not hesitate to threaten Europe with punitive tariffs on its companies, in an attempt to attract investment into the US market by force.

The U.S. Economy: A Giant with Clay Legs?

Despite his repeated rhetoric about "the world's greatest economy," the United States faces serious challenges, most notably public debt, which has exceeded $33 trillion, an unprecedented level that puts the U.S. economy on the brink of a new inflation crisis.

Add to that rising interest rates and increased consumer debt, which puts U.S. economic stability in doubt. But the most important question is: Is America still the safest investment destination?

Today, in light of the continued consequences of the Israeli aggression on Gaza, Trump seems ready to use the Palestinian cause as a new bargaining chip, to appease his supporters from the extreme right and the Israeli lobby.

Gulf Investments: Is America the Best Destination?

The United States has long been the traditional destination for Gulf investments, but recent developments raise questions about the effectiveness and safety of these investments compared to other markets.

In artificial intelligence, Chinese companies have proven to be on par with their American counterparts in terms of efficiency and innovation, but they offer technology at a much lower cost, making China an attractive investment destination.

The U.S. use of economic sanctions and asset freezes, as happened with Russia, has made international investors more cautious of pumping their money into the U.S. financial system, fearing it could be used as political leverage in the future. Emerging markets such as China, Vietnam, Brazil, and Ireland offer attractive investment opportunities with fewer political risks and returns that may outperform investments in U.S. companies. 

Trump and the Middle East: Strategic Partnership or Economic Exploitation?

For Trump, the Middle East was nothing but an arena for political and economic gains at the expense of the peoples of the region; in his first term, he granted Israel unprecedented gains, starting with moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, through recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan, and ending with attempts to impose the "deal of the century", which aimed to liquidate the Palestinian cause.

Today, with the consequences of the Israeli aggression on Gaza continuing, Trump seems ready to use the Palestinian cause as a new bargaining chip to appease his far-right and Israeli lobby backers.

Miriam Adelson: Money for Ethnic Cleansing

One of Trump's most prominent campaign financiers is Miriam Adelson, the widow of billionaire Sheldon Adelson, one of Las Vegas' biggest casino tycoons. This billionaire, known for her blind support of Israel, plays a key role in guiding Trump's policies toward the Middle East.

Miriam Adelson is not only a campaigner but also a more radical supporter of forced displacement projects of Palestinians, and openly supports ethnic cleansing in Gaza and the West Bank. With this financial and political clout, it is understandable why Trump is rushing to support Israel without borders, even at the expense of Middle East stability and security.

Trump and the Geography of Power: From Greenland to the Gulf

In his first term, Trump made no secret of his expansionist ambitions, publicly expressing his desire to buy the island of Greenland from Denmark, a move that sparked global ridicule. However, although the idea seemed unrealistic, it revealed his approach to dealing with small states and weak economic entities, as he seeks to impose new realities by economic force, whether through direct acquisition or by forcing states to make strategic concessions.

In the Gulf, Trump continues to use blackmail, trying to force Gulf states to invest heavily in U.S. companies or buy more weapons. But it faces a changing reality, as Gulf states have begun to diversify their economic partnerships away from full dependence on Washington, with China and India increasingly turning to strategic partners.

Will Trump succeed in imposing his new "deals" on the world, or will the cost this time be greater than the U.S. economy or the world order can afford?

Will politics work in a multipolar world?

Trump is returning to the political scene at a time when the United States is no longer the only economic power capable of imposing its conditions; the world is becoming more complex, and economic alliances are taking shape away from American hegemony. With China emerging as an economic power, growing Russian influence, and shifting balance of power in the Middle East, it seems that Trump's threat-based approach may not be as effective as it has been in the past. 

The question now is: Will Trump succeed in imposing his new "deals" on the world, or will the cost this time be greater than the U.S. economy or the world order can afford?

The coming months will reveal whether the global economy is ready for a new round of "Trump wars," or whether time has outgrown the politics of the "cowboy" in a world that no longer accepts absolute American hegemony.