Afrasianet - more ammunition and weapons production, more investment and coordination in defense capabilities... Is Europe preparing for an open war with Russia?
EU countries are seeking to increase their defense spending, and the European Union – one of the main goals of which is to maintain peace among member states – has become heavily focused on defense, as it aims to protect itself from external threats in turbulent times and with fears of another war in Europe.
Escalation factors are increasing
The trajectory of this European shift towards focusing on defense spending has been greatly affected by many factors, most notably the war being waged by Russia against Ukraine, as the Russian military invasion entered its third year, while Ukrainian forces suffer due to the lack of ammunition and the paralysis of the aid provided to them, and the Kremlin is proving that it is more flexible than expected, according to a report by the Spanish newspaper "El País", Monday, March 4 (March). China is also showing firmer appetite, and concerns about what will happen to support are growing. If former U.S. President Donald Trump returns to the White House, or if Washington shifts its efforts from Europe to Asia to contain China. The European continent therefore strives not to be in a fragile position if another conflict breaks out.
A recent sign of escalation between the Russia and the EU is the Russia's statement that the content of the leaked conversation between German officers who discussed possible strikes in Ukraine's annexed Crimea Russia "proves that Western countries are participating in the war in Ukraine," according to the Kremlin, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, despite considerable pressure from allies, repeatedly rejects Kiev's long-standing request for Taurus missiles. He justifies his position by arguing that the "long-range weapon", which has a range of about 300 miles, if handed over by Germany to Ukraine, would risk dragging Germany directly into the war against Russia, the Washington Post reported Tuesday, March 5.
In anticipation of a Russian attack
Amid the tense weather of the year between the Russia and the EU, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the plenary session of the European Parliament that "the (Russian) threat of war may not be imminent, but it is not impossible," stressing that "it is time for Europe to prepare."
Von der Leyen's speech is the latest in a series of statements warning of the danger of Russian President Vladimir Putin attacking a European country and NATO ally, trying to test NATO's Joint Defense Pledge, which states that an attack on any member of the alliance is an attack on everyone. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned a few weeks ago that "our experts expect this (attack) to be possible within five to eight years." Meanwhile, the Danish defense minister, Troels Lund Poulsen, said that the hypothetical attack could happen even before that "this was not NATO's assessment in 2023, this is new knowledge that is coming to the fore now."
The European Commission unveiled the European Defense Industry Programme (EDIP) in response to the urgent need for a coordinated defence strategy in the face of a possible Russian attack.
Commissioner Thierry Breton sums up the Commission's European Defence Industry Programme as "faster production, better production, co-production in Europe".
Addressing weakness in the military industry
This industrial programme, which aims to address the weaknesses of the European military industry highlighted by the war in Ukraine, underscores the importance of producing more efficiently and cooperatively within the EU. The war highlighted shortcomings in several areas of the European military industry, most notably the inability of factories to secure the growing demand for military products, and the dangerous decline in inventories, which highlighted the weaknesses of European defense, a legacy dubbed the "lazy thirty years", which During which the Europeans enjoyed the gains of peace after the absence of the Soviet Union and with it the eastern camp in the early nineties of the last century.
European armies, according to a report by the French newspaper "Le Figaro", Tuesday, March 5, despite the increase in the productive capabilities of their countries in the defense sector, are not sufficiently prepared to face the current threats. Insufficient defense spending over the past fifteen years of EU countries has made the bloc unprepared. The Commission therefore aims to correct the imbalance in collective defence spending by encouraging joint military procurement and the exchange of military stockpiles. However, financial constraints remain an obstacle.
The European Defence Industry Programme proposes a set of legal, regulatory and financial tools to revitalize the defence industry. The Commission has allocated a budget of 1.5 billion euros to Ukraine. These efforts are aimed at stimulating increased productive capacities among actors in the defense industry. The goal is to enhance visibility for manufacturers by encouraging joint European procurement, with the aim of achieving 40 percent of cooperative defence equipment acquisitions by 2030.
Towards Strengthening Defense Cooperation
The EU is considering a transformative approach to defence cooperation, aimed at enhancing efficiency and reducing costs for member states. The proposal involves pooling resources and funds to establish the Joint Defence Procurement System.
To stimulate participation in the defense industry, the EU proposes to provide a portion of the contract amounts to speed up production capacity. In addition, it aims to support idle industrial sites, with the EU promising funding to revive production quickly when needed. The EU envisions a paradigm shift towards a "war economy" and urges the European defense industry to take more risks with EU support.
To boost demand and rapidly replenish stockpiles, the EU proposes to create a unified defense catalogue, similar to the US defense system, providing transparency and encouraging the purchase of European military equipment. The aim is to reduce costly fragmentation of defence offers and to cultivate a culture of cooperation through specialized legal frameworks, supported by EU funds.
However, the ambitious European plan faces financial challenges, with a modest initial payment of €1.5 billion from the EU budget; European countries have called for €100 billion in funding, with France, Estonia and Poland demanding adequate EU funding for the defence plan and proposing a new syndicated loan. While countries that are frugal in military spending remain cautious, especially Germany .
Reliance on French military industry
In its defense efforts, the EU relies on France that occupy a unique position in terms of defense. It is the only permanent member of the United Nations Security Council and the only nuclear-armed force in the European Union since Brexit, and it also has many and vast territories outside the European mainland, making France world-class players, according to another report by the French newspaper "Le Figaro".
Indeed, for more than sixty years, France has shown a desire to remain a leading military player without relying on another state. This approach has placed deterrence at the heart of France's defense policy (€52 billion out of €413 billion allocated for military spending planned under the French Military Programming Act 2024-2030 ). France is keen to maintain an integrated military model and maintain a defense industry capable of designing, developing and producing a variety of weapons, in order to equip French forces and also for the export of weapons, often within the framework of strategic cooperation with friendly countries. International sales (of arms) also generate income to invest in new-generation weapons, so that French armies remain at the forefront of technology.
In preparation for the possibility of Trump winning the US elections
The European Union's decision to launch the European Defense Industry Program (EDIP) also comes as EU countries anticipate the possibility of former President Donald Trump winning the US presidential election in November November. A scenario that European leaders in general see as a threat to common transatlantic defense, with fears that Trump will not be a strong ally of Europe, unlike the current US President Joe Biden, while Russia entered the third year of its war on Ukraine, and the European Union fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin will attack a (European) NATO country.
When current US President Joe Biden defeated then-US President Donald Trump in 2020 in the US presidential election, many European capitals were relieved. But that relief turned into the realization that it could not last long if Trump returned to the White House, according to a previous report by the American magazine "Foreign Policy".
According to the Irish Independent newspaper, a senior European official revealed that leaders of EU member states are already considering the impact of a second term for Trump on the EU.
The official said European political leaders were preparing "mentally" for the possibility of Trump defeating current U.S. President Joe Biden in the November election.
This preparation includes consideration of European defense capabilities and energy resources, with many predicting that Trump will not be a strong EU ally.
European leaders are also expected to take the presidency of Trump into account in decision-making when choosing a successor to outgoing European Council President Charles Michel.
"The main characteristic of Mr. Trump is the inability to predict (what he will do), so you have to prepare for the unpredictable," the European official said.
What's next for Ajum on your course?
The Kremlin said it would "not talk" with Ukraine because of its offensive inside Russia's Kursk region, which has entered its second week.
Yuri Ushakov, Russia's assistant for foreign policy, told the Russian Shot radio station via Telegram: "At the current stage, given this adventure, we will not talk," adding: "It would be completely inappropriate to enter into a negotiating process."
The Ukraine announced that it repelled - on Tuesday morning - an air attack Russia on the capital, Kiev, the fifth of its kind this month, at a time when the city of Pokrovsk, east of Ukraine, is witnessing a mass displacement, after the incursion of Russian army forces into it.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said President Vladimir Putin had confirmed that there would be no negotiations with Kiev after the Ukrainian attack on Russia's Kursk province.
Lavrov noted in an interview with journalist Pavel Zarubin that "the president (Vladimir Putin) said very clearly that after the start of the attacks on the Kursk region, not even the attacks, but the invasion of the territory of Kursk, there can be no talk of any negotiations, and the president also said a very important phrase that I would like to draw attention to: we will definitely assess this situation very soon."
In a related context, the Russian army announced the control of the town of Zalyznyy, near Toritsk in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, where it is making continuous progress, independent of the surprise attack launched by Ukrainian forces inside Russian territory.
The Russian Defense Ministry said in its daily report that Russian forces "liberated one of the largest towns of the Dzerzhinsk region (Turitsk according to its Ukrainian name), the town of Artyumovo (Zalyzny in Ukrainian)."
RIA quoted a Russian parliamentarian as saying that Ukraine's Western-backed incursion into Russia puts the world on the brink of all-out war.
MP Mikhail Sheremet also noted: "Given the presence of Western military equipment with the use of Western ammunition and missiles in attacks on civilian infrastructure, as well as irrefutable evidence of the participation of foreigners in the attack on Russian territory, it can be concluded that the world is on the brink of World War III."
Sheremet, a member of the Russian parliament's defense committee, added that NATO countries had given the green light to carry out the incursion plans, an accusation the United States denied.
Nikolai Patrushev, an aide to President Vladimir Putin, also accused the West of being behind the attack in an interview with the Izvestia newspaper.
Patrushev said NATO and Western intelligence services were involved in planning the Kursk operation, but offered no evidence.
Ukraine and its allies say Russia receives support for its war efforts from China, Iran and North Korea.
Russia is also approaching one of the eastern cities despite Ukraine "successes" elsewhere, while Ukrainian hopes that an incursion into the Kursk region will ease pressure on the eastern front have not been realized, as Moscow forces approach the city of Pokrovsk.
Kiev's announced successes in its two-week incursion into Russia have not stopped Moscow's continued push for troops into the eastern part of Ukraine, threatening a key logistics hub.
Officials in the eastern Ukraine city of Pokrovsk say they are evacuating residents in anticipation of its fall in the face of the Russian advance, which is now less than 10 kilometers from the city limits. If this city falls, it will be the largest Russian-controlled population center since Artyumov (Ukrainian Pakhmut) in May 2023.
The head of information policy in the military administration of Pokrovsk, Yekaterina Yanzola, said by phone that Russian forces "are moving towards the outskirts of the city, and it is no longer a secret that the fate of the city has become unclear." "Maybe the situation will change in some way, and we hope that the enemy will stop somewhere on the roads to Pokrovsk, and that our forces will repel him."
Maps available to users show Russian forces approaching the villages of Grudevka, Krasny Yar and Novogrodevka, east of Pokrovsk, which could indicate that an imminent Russia breakthrough is on the way, experts say.
Franz Stefan Gadi, a military analyst at the Vienna-based Center for a New American Security, said: "There is a number of evidence that the Russians are already fighting on the last significant line of defense outside the city of Pokrovsk."
US private military company exposes the participation of its mercenaries in the attack on the Kursk province
The loss of Pokrovsk, the logistics hub at the intersection of two major roads in eastern Ukraine, would open the door to further advances by Russia in this eastern industrial zone that has long been the focus of the offensive by Russian forces.
But even as Russian forces advanced in the east, outgoing Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said Ukrainian forces had "achieved their goals" in Russia's western Kursk region, hundreds of kilometers to the north, where Kiev forces launched a bold incursion almost two weeks ago.
While congratulating the troops on their efforts, Zelenskiy told the United States, Britain and France that "there is a need to accelerate supplies from our partners. We strongly demand that. There are no leave in war."
Analysts said Russia's steady progress pointed to a potential weakness in Kiev's strategy, as its hopes of limiting Russian gains in the east have yet to materialize.
Military analyst Gadi, referring to the rust belt in eastern Ukraine where Pokrovsk and Toretsk are located, said: "The picture in the Donbass looks rather worrying to me." Russia still far outperforms Ukrainian forces in terms of manpower and firepower there. The bigger question, according to Ghadi, remains: "What kind of reserves are now unavailable" in Pokrovsk, which would otherwise be available in Kursk?
"War is always about making choices. The question is: was this the right choice to send troops to Russia to expand the front line, or was it better to maintain reserves or stabilize the front line in the Donbass?".
Ukrainian soldiers in the Pokrovsk region say that the incursion into Kursk has not changed the Russian offensive, on the contrary, pressure has increased in recent days.
A spokesman for the 110th Mechanized Brigade, Ivan Sikash, which is located about 16 kilometers from Pokrovsk, said: "The enemy will not abandon this direction in his attack, for him it remains a priority." And the last thing they will do, even if the situation is very bad for them, will be to go somewhere else. Only at the last minute will they take their strength from here."
Lukashenko commenting on the Ukrainian attack on Kursk: they die in vain
Moscow's forces are using different tactics, using more motorized vehicles and smaller groups to scout the line. "The situation has not changed, it has become more difficult, because the enemy has started to use more equipment," Sikash said.
Despite this, other analysts say that Kiev's strategy involves concessions, but at present, first, Ukrainian territorial gains near Kursk seem more important than territorial losses near Pokrovsk, says Konrad Muzika, director of Poland-based defense consultancy Roshan. Especially if the Ukrainians are properly fortified, then they will have a chance of inflicting heavy losses on Russian units."
"It's all about manpower and the extent to which Kiev is ready to defend the region."
The head of the military administration of the city of Pokrovsk, Yuri Tretyak, said in a phone call that local officials are urging residents to evacuate the town of Mirnograd, about 10 kilometers east of Pokrovsk, where Russian forces are advancing "little by little," adding that Russian forces are less than 8 kilometers from the town.
Russian forces continue their battles against Ukrainian forces following the latter's incursion into the Russian border in the Kursk region, forcing Moscow to call up reservists.
In one of the biggest Ukrainian attacks on Russia in the two-year war, about 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers breached the Russian border in the early hours of Tuesday morning, with tanks, armored vehicles and swarms of drones and artillery, according to Russian officials.
Shelling and drone strikes on the area adjacent to the Russian-Ukrainian border killed 5 civilians and wounded 31 others, including children, according to Russian media and officials.
Ukrainian troops have penetrated into border fields and forests north of the town of Sudja, the last shipping point currently operating to transport Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine.
Russia announces the cessation of the advance of Ukrainian units
For its part, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that the Russian army "stopped and destroyed" the attempts of units of the Ukrainian armed forces to penetrate the area in the direction of Kursk.
The ministry said in a statement: "Units of the Northern Group, along with the Russian Federal Security Service, continue to destroy the armed formations of the Ukrainian armed forces in the Sudzhinsky and Korynevsky regions of the Kursk region," according to the Russian news agency "Sputnik".
"Gatherings of manpower and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been targeted by fire, and attempts to penetrate individual units deep into the area in the direction of Kursk are being stopped," the statement added.
The ministry explained that Russian forces were launching air strikes on advancing Ukrainian forces in the Ukrainian province of Sumy (neighboring), noting that air defense systems intercepted and destroyed an Olkha missile in the airspace of the Kursk province.
It added that Russian Su-34 fighter jets bombed with FAB-500 bombs equipment belonging to the Ukrainian armed forces in the Kursk region, and released video footage of the operation.
According to the ministry, the losses of Ukrainian formations since the start of combat operations on the Kursk axis "amounted to 660 military and 82 armored vehicles."
Medvedev demands to "crush the enemy"
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said the Ukrainian offensive was an attempt by Kiev to force Russia to move its forces from the main frontlines and to show the West that it was still capable of fighting.
The former Russian president wrote on Telegram: "Russia need to learn lessons from the actions of the Ukrainian army on the border with the Kursk region, and resolutely crush the enemy."
"We need to learn a serious lesson from what happened and do what Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov pledged to the commander-in-chief, that is, defeat the enemy and crush it resolutely," he said.
He stressed that as a result of this attack, Russia must expand its war objectives to include the entire Ukraine.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said that the participation of a US private military company alongside the Ukrainian armed forces during the attack on the Kursk province proves the involvement of the United States as a direct participant in the conflict, and mercenaries automatically become a legitimate military target.
"Such actions, which contradict the claims of the administration of US President Joe Biden about its alleged ininvolvement in the neo-Nazi Ukrainian attack on Russia, clearly demonstrate the involvement of the United States, as a direct participant in the conflict, in the malign plans of Volodymyr Zelensky," the ministry said after summoning Russia's charge d'affaires Stephenie Holmes.
She noted that with regard to US citizens involved in these crimes, in accordance with the Russian Criminal Code, the competent departments will carry out the necessary investigative procedures to bring them to justice.
"It is clear that all foreign "specialists" and mercenaries who illegally cross the borders of our country automatically become a legitimate military target of the Russian armed forces," the ministry said.
Russian Marines participating in the operation talked about how to stop the advance of the Ukrainian armored column, which consists of the Striker and Kozak tankers, a Humvee armored vehicle and others.
One soldier said: "The enemy did not expect such a harsh response from our side. "After unsuccessful face-to-face confrontations, the militants tried to bypass our fighters, but thanks to the ingenuity of the division commander, they were taken by surprise."
"After that, the Marines were able to take advantageous positions to achieve more control over the movement of the Ukrainian column and the enemy's light and heavy equipment was destroyed."
Among the armored vehicles of the Kiev forces seized were a Canadian Roshel SARV armored vehicle and a "Cougar" mine-resistant vehicle.
In conclusion, the Ukrainian attack on Kursk can be considered a final attempt by Kiev to impose its own scenario on the course of the war and negotiate on an equal basis, or at least force the Kremlin to divert resources from the eastern Donetsk region, where Russian forces pressed in several sectors and made slow but steady gains, in addition to that, the attack was a rejection of the Russian scenario, which hoped that its forces would continue to encircle the Ukraine until negotiations began in which it would have a hand. to ensure the end of the war according to the Russian perception.
On the other hand, Moscow is unlikely to easily acquiesce to the Kiev scenario, but it may respond by expanding its war objectives to seize more Ukrainian territory, and may increase the frequency of its attacks along the front line with the prospect of pushing more trained troops into combat zones.