Will Dabaiba be the engineer of the partition wall of Libya?

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Afrasianet - The outgoing Libyan Prime Minister, Abdel Hamid Dabaiba, returned from his visit to Algeria, clinging more to staying in power and taking an escalating speech against the head of the government emanating from the House of Representatives, Fathi Bashagha, which heralds Libya's return to the square of violence and confrontation.

The outgoing Prime Minister, Abdel Hamid al-Dabaiba, pushes to create illusory justifications for continuing to rule indefinitely by overturning previous pledges. He finds in this direct support from internal and external forces that believe that their interest lies in the continuation of the crisis until it is ensured that it is resolved in a manner that suits their interests and not others.

Including Algeria, which plays a suspicious role that reflects a history of silent tension with the regime of Muammar Gaddafi over influence in the region, and an unbridled rush to engage in unjustified interactions with Egypt in exchange for volunteering to implement a functional service for the agendas of Ankara and Doha and to obtain Washington’s approval by applying to play a police role for it in the region.

Breakthroughs in the American position in support of Morocco, especially in the issue of the Moroccan Sahara. Before presenting a copy to the President of the Presidential Council, Muhammad al-Minfi, as required by law and customs, Dabaiba went to Algeria to present to President Abdel Majid Tabun, "the general framework for the plan to return the secretariat to the people to hold the elections", in a scene that reveals the state of mutual isolation between the two parties, especially on the part of Dabaiba, whose relations worsened With Egypt and Tunisia, he chose to stand in the side of the militias and consider himself a student in the school of extremism run by the isolated Mufti Sadiq Al-Ghariani, in a way that guarantees him the loyalty of terrorist groups and the Shura Councils of the Mujahideen fleeing from the cities of the East. And from Algeria, which he visited accompanied by the chiefs of staff, intelligence and internal security, Dabaiba returned with an escalation of speech against his rival, the head of the government emanating from the House of Representatives, Fathi Bashagha, as well as against the parliament, the army and the protest movements that closed a number of oil facilities, and entered into an open confrontation in which observers see the promise of return. To the square of war and chaos.

A desperate look from an ominous situation Dabaiba’s visit to Algeria was aimed at gaining Algerian support against Bashagha and the political and military leaders in the eastern region, and obtaining promises to help him in any conflict that might rage during the next stage, especially since Algeria has always shown its sympathy with the militias controlling the western region, as well as to put pressure on Tunisia In order to prevent any activity of the president and members of the new government from its territory, something that Dabaiba had discussed in a non-diplomatic way when he called the Tunisian ambassador, Al-Assaad Al-Ajili to his office, in the presence of the commander of the anti-terrorist force, Major General Muhammad Al-Zein, and treated him as if he were an employee and not an ambassador of a sovereign country, to inform him His government was dissatisfied with the activity of Bashagha from the capital, Tunis, and his attempt to cross towards Tripoli from the Dehiba-Wazen border crossing. Also, that visit came in circumstances that indicate Dabaiba’s desire to push for a new civil war in which he is holed up behind armed groups and behind the populist slogans he raises and the family, factional and regional interests he manages, and the foreign relations he is linked to on the basis of subordination to the agendas of their original owners. He seeks to secure his back on the western border, relying on the Algerian role and on the coordination relations between Algeria and Tunisia. He does not see any objection to presenting himself to the Algerians as being ready to serve any agenda they aspire to implement regionally, especially in a relationship with neighboring countries.

 With the militias moving to form a warning of war in Tripoli, and to achieve a psychological impact on the local population by relying on the tense media and political discourse, most of the indicators seem to be heading to the same destination. An actual solution that may help crystallize a future solution to the crisis, and therefore it was moved until after Eid al-Fitr to complete the consultations, according to the Special Adviser to the Secretary-General of the United Nations on Libya Stephanie Williams, who said that the team of experts provided technical clarifications on a number of important constitutional issues, citing constitutional experiences from A number of countries in the region and the world. Unifying the military establishment and achieving national reconciliation are two things that Dabaiba considers to be the weak points of his rival, Bashagha, and relies on them to incite against him. The meeting came within the framework of the initiative launched by the United Nations early last month with the aim of moving forward to reach a constitutional and legislative framework for holding parliamentary and presidential elections as soon as possible, an initiative that originally aims to perpetuate the crisis rather than solve it, and is led by Williams not out of an international insistence on overcoming it. The deteriorating situation in the country, but in terms of its undeclared representation of the American side that deals with the Libyan reality from the surface and without understanding the peculiarities of society, just as happened in Washington’s previous experiences in Afghanistan, which it left to the Taliban, and Iraq, which it handed over to Iran’s militias, and other countries that are not seen The Americans are only as accounts and interests and as centers of conflict with competing international powers. The Joint Military Committee (5 + 5) entered the crisis line in a way that observers saw as a prelude to an exacerbation of the conflict and a reversal of all field gains made since the military agreement was reached in Geneva in October 2020.

Members of the army’s General Command delegation in the committee confirmed the suspension of all their activities until their demands are considered, which is the implementation of all provisions of the ceasefire agreement, by removing foreign forces, foreign fighters and mercenaries, and dissolving formations and groups obstructing the work of state institutions. The committee said that the decision to suspend work came after the divisions that occurred and are still occurring, and the refusal of the outgoing Prime Minister, Abdel Hamid Al-Dabaiba, to hand over power and submit to the will of the people and the Legislative Council. Dabaiba had succumbed to international pressure a few days ago, when he agreed to pay the salaries of National Army members for the months of January and February, a habit that he seems to have adhered to.

Local observers point out that he aims behind these actions to win more loyalties within the armed militias and extremist groups that view the army and its general commander, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, as enemies, and that Dabaiba is approaching them with their hostility, thus declaring that he will not enter into any deal with Al-Rajma, and therefore He insists on perpetuating division indefinitely. In reality, there is no longer any promise of a political solution in the near future or of overcoming the conflict situation that has existed for more than ten years. After the army’s salary crisis, the internal security salary crisis erupted in the eastern region, which was denounced by the House of Representatives’ Interior Committee, which considered that “this matter is part of a systematic policy to demolish the specialized security services and starve their employees and their families … as it deliberately stopped disbursing the salaries of internal security personnel since the beginning of the year.”

Last January and until now...not to mention the intentional failure to spend any budget for the apparatus in the eastern region since it took over the functions of the government in 2021, and in return it spent more than 60 million Libyan dinars to head the parallel apparatus in Tripoli, which is controlled by one of the most powerful militia members. This crisis revealed the transformation of the military and security institutions in the eastern region and its southern extensions into a tool used by Dabaiba through systematic weakness and provocation to devote his popularity to the hard-line February movement and the extremist religious movement.

By ruling, even by relying on force, and pushing for a new war that guarantees him the continuation of the authority of the family, the faction and the group, and covering up the files of corruption and the unprecedented waste of public money. The Speaker of Parliament, Aqila Saleh, had directed the necessity of dealing with the Bashagha government, and stressed not to deal in any way with the outgoing government of national unity, declaring that dealing can only be with the Bashagha government, as it is the legitimate executive authority. But the reality on the ground indicates that Dabaiba lays his hands on those institutions after he involved them in managing the last stage out of a firm conviction of continuity for other years, whether or not the elections were organized, and today he is moving from within that context, as he has succeeded in thwarting previous pledges to organize The presidential elections took place on the twenty-fourth of last December, when he realized that his chances were at stake in the face of his new rivals, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, Khalifa Haftar and Fathi Bashagha. From there, he began promoting the organization of parliamentary elections next June, coinciding with the end of the roadmap phase emanating from the Forum for Political Dialogue, and he found supporters in that direction, especially from Western capitals known for their abject failure in managing various files in the region, including the Libyan file, and Williams, in turn, came out with her initiative that It aims to prolong the current authority until an alternative authority is found that is guaranteed loyalty to Washington and blatant hostility to Moscow.

The will of the people is against the will of politicians Today, there is no longer any hope for organizing elections next June, due to the lack of time and the persistence of differences over the constitutional base, and therefore the Dabaiba government, which pledged in March 2021 to officially transform into a caretaker government on the twenty-fourth of December of the same year, was withdrawn from it. The House of Representatives has its confidence in September 2021, it will continue to rule from outside parliamentary legitimacy and outside the legitimacy of the slogan on which it was founded, which is national unity, as well as outside the goals that were linked to its formation and gaining the confidence of the House of Representatives.

In view of this complex reality that the country is witnessing, and in light of the complete disregard for previous pledges and promises and internal balances, tribal protesters turned to pressure the international community by closing a number of oil fields in the southwest and oases regions, including the country's largest field, the "Sharara" field, which Its daily production is 300,000 barrels, in addition to the Zueitina oil port in the Eastern Province.

There is no promise of a political solution in Libya or of overcoming the state of conflict that has existed for more than ten years. The elections carry only illusory promises as a result of the political, security and military division. Last March, Aqila Saleh sent a letter to the head of the National Oil Corporation, Mustafa Sanalla, in which he called on him to re-work the method of freezing oil revenues until the Bashagha government officially takes over, but last week it was revealed that the sum of six billion dollars was transferred to the government accounts, in reference to The continuation of the unprecedented waste of public money and the failure of the Oil Corporation to implement the request of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, which cannot deviate from the obedience of Western capitals known for their support for the outgoing government.

This led to a decline in daily production levels by about 500,000 barrels from the total Libyan oil production, which was estimated at 1.3 million barrels per day, which means a return to the January 2020 scenario when social activities on the eve of the first Berlin Conference closed oil production and export facilities in Libya in conjunction with Military confrontations in the capital, Tripoli, and the pumping of oil only after eight months, provided that the revenues are transferred to a special account in the Foreign Bank of Libya and frozen until the formation of an agreed government by the two parties to the conflict, and it happened that the Dabaiba government that pledged to be the bridge of communication to achieve reconciliation Nationalism, but as soon as it was able to take over the reins of government and the keys to wealth, it denied that and all the outcomes of the first and second Berlin agreements and the forum for political dialogue.

And on the thirtieth of this April, the mission of Williams, the political advisor to the Secretary-General of the United Nations in charge of the Libyan file, according to the contract concluded with her, which will be renewed in light of her success in implementing her country’s project aimed at perpetuating the conflict in the rich country in North Africa until the requirements for ensuring control and control are provided.

In all his capabilities after blocking the way for international competitors, and in light of the failure of any soon project to choose a new UN envoy after the resignation of Jan Kubis last December, especially with the widening circle of the American-Russian conflict over the successor of the situation in Ukraine, which is reflected on the Libyan situation. Dabaiba refuses to recognize the new government and the peaceful transfer of power and handing over the reins of government to pose a threat to the future of Libya, and thus may be the engineer who will plan to build the actual dividing wall for the country In reality, there is no longer any promise of a political solution or overcoming the state of conflict that has existed for more than ten years.

The elections carry only illusory promises that cannot be implemented as a result of the political, social, security and military division and the failure to provide the appropriate conditions for the integrity of the merits, transparency of results and the guarantee of acceptance by all parties, which is The challenge witnessed by the canceled elections, and there is no condition to raise it now or in the near future.

Given that Williams does not have an agreed upon UN status from the permanent members of the Security Council that allows her to speak to the Security Council, the session of the nineteenth of this April witnessed the progress of Rosemary DiCarlo, Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs and Peacebuilding on the situation in Libya to read the periodic briefing , which seemed pessimistic, relying on most of the data recorded on the ground, without pointing the finger at the original actors standing behind the perpetuation of the crisis, and when asked about alternative options, it indicated the possibility of reviving the Berlin process through the support of the Security Council or the holding of a small Libyan political dialogue forum to draw A new roadmap. As for the plan to unify the military institution and achieve national reconciliation, they are two things that are not on the table for implementation by Dabaiba. Rather, he considers them as weak points of his rival, Pashaga, and relies on them to mobilize and incite against him, based on the fact that Dabaiba’s continuation in power was only achieved by the perpetuation of the political and social division, and his transformation into a symbol of the state.

Civilian militia sponsored by warlords with fatwas Gharyani in the face of Haftar and his forces. Dabaiba refuses to recognize the new government and the peaceful transfer of power and handing over the reins of government, to pose a threat to the future of Libya, and he may be the engineer who will plan to build the actual dividing wall for the country, which has become a strong proposal, especially in light of the deliberate intention of some regional and international powers to maintain the crisis as it is and perhaps Exacerbate it until the appropriate conditions are achieved to reach a solution that serves its interests.

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