Possible features of a future stage in the “Middle East”

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Afrasianet - Dr.. Sobhi Ghandour - Three time stations coming this month, it is important to stop at them and the direct effects that could result in the burning crises for several years in the “Middle East” region, and perhaps now is the time to put out their fires! The first stage is what the sixth round of Austrian negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file may witness on the 10th of this month from the possibility of announcing an American/Iranian understanding on the two parties’ simultaneous return to commitment to the contents of the international agreement that took place in 2015, from which the Trump administration withdrew and tightened sanctions. On Iran, which prompted the Iranian government to respond to that by deviating from the percentage specified for it in uranium enrichment. The second stop is the Israeli Knesset session that could take place on the 9th of the month in order to vote on the new coalition government led by “There is a Future” party leader Yair Lapid, which needs 61 votes to win the Knesset’s confidence, which could be stumbled if Netanyahu succeeds in influencing the number of votes.


Of the deputies of the new coalition bloc opposing him. The third important time station this month is US President Biden's first foreign tour, which will include participation in the G7 (Group of Seven) summit in Cornwall, Britain, which will be held from June 11-13. Then Biden will travel to Belgium, where he will participate in NATO summit on June 14, and he will also meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss a range of bilateral and regional issues. While in Brussels, Biden will also participate in a US-EU summit on June 15, and President Biden will then travel to Geneva, Switzerland, where he will hold a bilateral summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 16. What is the relationship between these time stations and the crises of the “Middle East”? The new US administration, in my opinion, wanted to speed up the return to the international agreement with Iran, but it wanted to avoid what happened in 2015 of Israeli incitement led by Netanyahu inside and outside America to prevent the agreement from happening, and he failed to do so, until the Trump administration, which gave him everything He wants it in the Iranian and Palestinian files, and where Trump/Netanyahu succeeded in giving the conflict with Iran a priority throughout the “Middle East,” and in marginalizing the Palestinian file as well.

Of course, the circumstances are now different from what happened in 2015, when Netanyahu is no longer the political power he had at the time, and he failed in three elections to obtain a majority in the Knesset. He is accused of legal issues awaiting his exit from the position of prime minister to be held accountable before the Israeli courts, and his influence in Congress. The Americans have weakened greatly due to the ongoing transformations in the Democratic Party, and the very deep relations that Trump and Netanyahu had, which made the Americans’ anger toward Trump extend to Netanyahu himself.

In my estimation, too, the Biden administration played a role in encouraging some Israeli political blocs to agree now to form the coalition opposed to Netanyahu and to remove him from political life, and he is the one who declared a few days ago that if he was given the choice between taking into account the American ally and facing the Iranian threat, he would choose the second matter, and therefore Washington hastened By inviting Defense Minister Gantz to visit her to ensure that Netanyahu does not take any security or military action that obstructs Biden's policy toward Iran now.

It was difficult for Biden's administration to announce a return to the international agreement with Iran during the five rounds of negotiations that took place in Austria in light of Netanyahu's presence in power and the possibility of him carrying out military or security actions in the region that harm the policy that the US administration is currently pursuing in many files. Perhaps the choice of the tenth of this month is not random, as it is the day following the Israeli Knesset session to give confidence to the new government.


On the other hand, the Biden administration needed a period of time in which it also mitigated the reactions of the Republican members of Congress by saying that it negotiated indirectly with Iran for two months, with the participation of European allies, before the decision to return to the 2015 agreement and drop many of the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration.


On the Arab side, the Trump administration paved the way for its expected step with Iran by pressuring the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to start negotiations with the Iranian government through Iraqi mediation, which was also reflected in the start of Saudi/Syrian security talks related to Syrian and Lebanese affairs, the future of bilateral relations, and Syria’s membership in the League.

Arabic. It was not in vain that the Trump administration announced the US intelligence report on the killing of Jamal Khashoggi without attaching any direct sanctions to the Saudi crown prince, as if a barter had taken place with Riyadh related to the new directions of the Biden administration, especially in the Iranian and Yemeni files. In my estimation, too, the Biden administration, after ending the “Iranian file” problem, will work in cooperation with its European allies, and in coordination with Russia and Turkey, to achieve political settlements for several existing crises, including the war in Yemen, install a political solution in Libya and expedite the formation of a new Lebanese government and alleviate Sanctions on Syria are awaiting the ripening of conditions for the implementation of the contents of Security Council Resolution No. 2254 issued in 2015 related to a ceasefire and a political settlement of the situation in Syria.

So, US President Biden needs to go vigorously to the summits expected in the middle of this month and to have a vision in his administration of the fate of the Middle East crises, which were exacerbated by what happened recently in the occupied Palestinian territories. This means the necessity of ending the Iranian nuclear crisis before the meetings of Britain, Belgium and Switzerland, Note that the US international strategy is now focusing on the Chinese competitor and the East Asian region, while the eruption of crises in the “Middle East” over the past years has harmed US and European interests and increased the influence of the opponents of the “West” and “NATO” in more than one region.

Washington and its European ally may bet that the return of the spirit to the agreement with Iran will make this country, which is economically important in its internal market and has political and security influence in its external environment, less linked with China and more interested in improving relations with the West, which will make it keen on stability in the region’s conditions during the next stage, especially if This coincided with US pressure on the anti-Iranians in the region, led by Israel without Netanyahu.

As for the Palestinian issue, in this coming stage, it is not necessary to build high hopes on the possible changes and the expected summits. Nothing more will happen than a call to revive the negotiation formulas between the Palestinian Authority and the occupying state, with a focus now on the reconstruction of Gaza and improving the living conditions of the Palestinians in the occupied territories.

A temporary settlement freeze, and the possibility of calling for an international conference under the auspices of the “Quartet Committee” to oversee the Palestinian/Israeli negotiations on the future of the “two-state solution.” In the Palestinian issue, it is not permissible to bet on these possible regional changes, nor on negotiating with Israel after 28 years of the Oslo Accords, nor on the role of the “Quartet,” which for more than two decades has not been able to stop the settlements, so how about forcing Israel to withdraw from East Jerusalem And the West Bank!! While the Zionist settler racist extremism is increasing in Israeli society?!.

Barack Obama, who is the least friendly American president with Israel, did not succeed in confronting Netanyahu, punishing him, or at least putting pressure on the Israeli government to stop building settlements in Jerusalem and the West Bank! How would Joseph Biden, one of Israel's traditional friends, take pride in his Zionism when he was a member of the Senate?!. The just state of the Palestinian issue, or even the “two-state solution,” requires a majority in Israeli society and in government to accept withdrawal from all lands of the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and this is of course not available now.

The role of the “Quartet” will be effective and beneficial if Washington, backed by European support, decides to put actual pressure on Israel, stop it money and weapons and deal with it as happened with the racist government in South Africa, if it does not withdraw from the occupied territories, and this is definitely not possible now! .

Pressure can be exerted on Israel, Washington and Western countries if the Arab parties that have treaties or agreements with Israel (including the Palestine Liberation Organization) decide to stop or freeze these treaties and agreements and all forms of relations and negotiations with the occupying state unless it withdraws from all the occupied Arab lands, including The Syrian Golan, i.e. practical commitment to the initiative of the Arab summit in Beirut in 2002, but no one dreams of that now!.

It is important to note here that the US policy adopted towards the Arab-Israeli conflict, since the 1973 war, is based on four concomitant elements that no American president has departed from, namely:

• Bilateral peace treaty with Israel.

• Direct negotiations are the only method acceptable to the United States, ie neither military wars nor armed resistance.

• The priority of Arab normalization with Israel and not waiting for final solutions

• American unilateralism under the auspices of bilateral negotiations between Israel and any Arab party and the overthrow of the United Nations reference to the Palestinian issue or UN Security Council resolutions.

 

*** These foundations of US policy regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict will not depart from the Biden administration as long as it is not compelled to do so and where there is no effective international or Arab pressure that is imposed on it. Hope, all hope, will remain in the Palestinian people, who have demonstrated in the past weeks their mighty ability to shake the occupying state security, politically and economically, and to confirm the unity of this people from the river to the sea and from north to south, bypassing all leaderships, differences and expectations. This is not new to the people of Palestine and their numerous revolutions over a century. Thus is the biography of any occupation in the history of all peoples, that the occupation always ends as a result of resistance and not only as a result of negotiation! Director of the “Arab Dialogue Center” in WA
Director of the Arab Dialogue Center in Washington

 

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