Afrasianet - Anyone who has followed political developments in post-Assad Syria is no secret of the new ruling group's floundering in the face of the enormous challenges left by the ousted regime. More than three months behind us, during which the new administration has not recorded any progress in the most important files such as security, transitional justice, civil peace, the dismantling of armed factions, and the unification of Syrian geography and society. Its acceptance was based on circumventing the great achievement of toppling the regime.
While the PA owes the rapid overthrow of the regime to an exceptional regional circumstance, namely the repercussions of the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation and its catastrophic repercussions, the Arab, regional and international acceptance was based on the desire of the concerned countries to restore stability, which has been absent for 14 years and has caused serious repercussions that have reached their effects, such as the problems of terrorism, the flow of refugees, drugs and the associated economic burdens.
As for the general Syrian acceptance, it was based on the overwhelming joy at the fall of the regime and the openness of the horizon to a new establishment that breaks with the catastrophic past, in addition to the acceptable performance of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and its allies during the operation to "deter aggression", especially in sensitive areas such as Aleppo, Damascus and the Sahel Mountains, where the battle did not witness large-scale reprisals, violence on sectarian grounds, or widespread restrictions on public and private freedoms.
The ruler over the days, starting with the farce of the "National Dialogue Conference" to the sectarian massacres in the coast with the first week of March, and finally the issuance of the constitutional declaration, which was widely criticized, overshadowed the political scene by the lack of trust among large sectors of society, not limited to Alawites or minorities, in return for the high level of verbal aggression among supporters of the new authority in the face of any criticism of its behavior, even as it itself admitted it and formed a "fact-finding committee" on it.
In short, the large (conditional) balance obtained by the new authority at home and abroad is eroding every day with the decline of hopes placed on the great transformation that has been bet on. She didn't think of this serious loophole, even if it related to a near-zero probability. According to this condition, any Muslim can hold the position of the presidency even if he is not a Syrian national, knowing that Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and other jihadist factions have foreign members of different nationalities, including those who were hastily and unannounced!
Uncertainty about the democracy and secularism of the state, which are prerequisites for the establishment of a state in Syria that represents all its citizens, cannot establish this hoped-for state.
Perhaps the ambiguity of the agenda of the ruling team, especially its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, on basic issues such as the form of the state, the system of government, and others, is what encouraged many to bet on a change that must affect their well-known ideological program based on Salafi ideology and Sunni sectarianism.
However, this ambiguity has only been removed in the past period from the worst nightmares that Syrians have ruled out, as sectarian violence erupted and authoritarian and exclusionary tendencies became clear without a light appearing at the end of the tunnel, even if it was long by virtue of its size. Despite these worrying indicators, it remains that the PA is still weak and fragile (which in turn is worrying) and subject to many conditions, most of which unfortunately are external, and will be forced to deal positively with them to complete its imperfect legitimacy, and to solve the problem of sanctions imposed on Syria that do not allow the economy to be launched, and the PA cannot maintain what remains of its popularity before that. There are sectarian, ethnic and cultural components in Syrians, which have sought to circumvent them instead of addressing them in a patriotic spirit.
The agreement signed by the PA with the SDF seemed "historic" in the wake of the tragedy of the people of the Sahel, but the constitutional declaration in the form in which it was issued weakened its potential history, as neither the SDF nor a balanced current of Druze Suwayda led by Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri was satisfied with it.Uncertainty about the democracy and secularism of the state, which are prerequisites for the establishment of a state in Syria that represents all its citizens, cannot establish this hoped-for state, even if the pillars of power avoid the same two words by virtue of the ideology that governs their thinking.
Unless the authorities move in this direction, albeit slowly, we fear catastrophic scenarios such as the division of the country or generalized violent governance with murderous populism.
The ruling team needs a broad alliance with broad social groups to establish its legitimacy. Monopolization of power and the inability to dismantle armed groups and unify the country's regions have so far prevailed. Syria is not doing well.The exclusivity of power in a country that is rich in ethnic and religious diversity refers us to the Egyptian example when Mohamed Morsi took power, where the rule was devoted to one color, the Muslim Brotherhood, without involving the components of the Egyptian riots, which led to its downfall.
On the other hand, events are accelerating with regard to the American, Israeli and Turkish presence, as well as the armed presence of factions of organizations that have so far refused to integrate into the new state, while the de facto government suffers from major problems related to everything.
For example, America is informing Israel that it will begin gradually withdrawing its forces from Syria within the next two months, contrary to Tel Aviv's wishes.
Israel wanted and asked the United States to keep its forces in Syria and warns of the "possible consequences" of the move, so it demands a reconsideration of the decision, which appears to have entered into force.
The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth said: "U.S. defense officials have informed their Israeli counterparts that the United States plans to begin a gradual withdrawal of its forces from Syria within two months."
"Despite previous Israeli efforts to prevent such a move, Washington has made it clear that those efforts have failed."
However, Israeli defense officials have not given up and continue to pressure the Trump administration to reconsider.
Donald Trump, now back in office, has long promised to withdraw U.S. troops from the region under his administration's isolationist doctrine, which has been influenced in part by Vice President J.D. Vance.
Trump has repeatedly stated that "this is not our war, and the Pentagon has been preparing for this step for a while," she said.
According to the newspaper, "Washington is now moving into the operational phase, regularly updating Israeli defense officials. In discussions between the parties, Israeli representatives expressed serious concerns about the possible consequences.
A senior Israeli official estimated that the withdrawal could only be partial, and Israel is trying to prevent it as well, fearing it would embolden Turkey, which has been openly seeking to expand its influence in the region since the fall of the Assad regime.
"U.S. forces are currently stationed at several key points in eastern and northern Syria, where they play a stabilizing role. Israeli defense sources fear its withdrawal could spur Turkish efforts to seize more strategic military assets in Syria.
Israel has warned both Ankara and Washington that Turkey's permanent presence at bases such as Palmyra and T-4 will cross a red line and threaten the freedom of IDF operations in the northern arena, Syria.
Direct negotiations are under way between Israel and Turkey over the situation in Syria.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Wednesday that Ankara was holding technical-level talks with Israel to reduce tensions over Syria, but was not moving toward normalizing relations.
At a meeting last week in Azerbaijan, Israeli and Turkish officials discussed the issue. Israel has reportedly confirmed that it holds the new Syrian government responsible for all military activities in its territory, warning that any violations could lead to military action.
But she added: "Both sides have expressed interest in de-escalation, and talks have begun on establishing a coordination mechanism similar to the Israeli-Russian deconfliction model previously used in Syria."
Indicators «Disengagement»
However, the impending U.S. withdrawal, coupled with Trump's friendly tone toward (Turkish President Recep Tayyip) Erdogan during his recent meeting with (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu, has heightened tensions in Israel's defense establishment.
"Trump's offer to mediate between Israel and Turkey has not reassured Israeli officials, especially in light of the increasing signs of US disengagement," she said.
The newspaper quoted an Israeli security source as saying the recent airstrikes on the T-Four base in Syria were part of a "race against time" before the Americans "pack up and leave."
The meeting between Israeli and Turkish officials in Azerbaijan last week focused on technical issues, such as the establishment of a mechanism to prevent the conflict in Syria, according to the same source.
A diplomatic source stated that Israel "made it very clear that any change in the deployment of foreign forces in Syria — especially the establishment of Turkish bases in the Palmyra area — is a red line and would be considered a breach of trust."
The Israeli source added: "Israel has previously stated that preventing this threat is Damascus' responsibility."
The T-Four base, located near Palmyra in central Syria, has been a major focus of recent Israeli attacks.
The United States has begun reducing the number of its forces in northeastern Syria, in a move that reflects the changing security situation in the country since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December.
The US military has decided to close three of its eight small bases in the region, which will reduce the number of troops from 2,000 to about 1,400, according to the New York Times.
Closed military bases include the village of Green and the Euphrates and a third, smaller base.
The military command will assess within 60 days the possibility of further cuts, amid recommendations to keep at least 500 troops in Syria.
President Donald Trump is skeptical about keeping any troops there, but the current move was recommended by field commanders and approved by the Pentagon and Central Command.
In conclusion, it is not possible to read the Syrian scene without remembering that those who are in power now are the same ones who were classified as terrorists before they came to power, so will the scene change after they changed their scene from robes to neckties?