Afrasianet - Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine were halted Wednesday as the current 5-year transit agreement between Moscow and Kiev expired, representing a loss not only for Moscow, which once dominated the European gas market.  But also for some Europe.

Other countries that buy Russian gas, such as Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Austria, have prepared alternative supplies, and analysts expect little impact on the market from the disruption of Russian gas flows.

European Commission position

The European Commission downplayed the impact of the halt in Russian gas exports to Europe via Ukraine, saying the January 1 halt was expected and that the EU was ready for it.

"Europe's gas infrastructure is flexible enough to provide gas of non-Russian origin to central and eastern Europe via alternative routes," a Commission spokesman said.
"The EU has been boosted with significant new LNG import capacities since 2022," he added.

The European Commission earlier predicted that the impact of the disruption of Russian gas supplies would be limited, noting that the 14 billion cubic meters per year passing through Ukraine could be completely replaced by imports of liquefied natural gas and non-Russian pipelines via alternative routes.

The flexibility of the EU's gas system has been further improved  in recent years through initiatives such as gas reservoir filling targets, energy efficiency measures, renewable energy deployment and voluntary demand reduction measures.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Vetso said stopping gas transport through Ukraine would have a "significant" impact on EU countries, not Russia.

The loyalist Vitso has repeatedly warned that stopping gas transit would cost Slovakia hundreds of millions of euros as a result of lost transit revenues and increased gas import duties from other parties, adding that it would also lead to higher gas and electricity prices in Europe.

European imports of Russian natural gas

In the third quarter of 2024, the volume of gaseous natural gas imported from Russia was 54% lower than in the first quarter of 2021, and in the last three quarters imports from Russia increased and their share is now close to that recorded in the third quarter of 2022, but remains well below pre-Russian-Ukrainian war levels.

In the last three quarters of last year, imports from Russia increased, and their share is close to that recorded in the third quarter of 2022, but remained well below pre-Russian-Ukrainian war levels.

Russia's share of EU imports of gaseous natural gas fell slightly from 22% in the third quarter of 2022 to 20% in the third quarter of 2024.

European imports of Russian liquefied gas

Imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imported from Russia in the third quarter of 2024 increased by 2% compared to the first quarter of 2021, however, due to higher prices, its value increased in this period by 150%, according to Eurostat.

Russia's share of EU LNG imports fell from 12% in the third quarter of 2022 to 10% in the third quarter of 2023, but rose again to 20% in the third quarter of 2024.

The highest share in the third quarter of 2024 was for the United States at 35%, according to Eurostat data.

European imports of liquefied gas from Russia and abroad

In 2023, the share of Russian gas via pipelines in EU imports fell from more than 40% in 2021 to about 8% in 2023.

For pipeline gas and LNG combined, Russia accounted for less than 15% of total EU gas imports.

The decline was driven by a sharp increase in LNG imports from other sides and a general decline in EU gas consumption.

EU imports last year (latest available annual data) by quota were as follows:

•    Norway: 30.3% (87.8 billion cubic meters).
•    United States: 19.4% (56.2 billion cubic meters).
•    Russia (via pipeline and liquefied condition): 14.8% (42.9 billion cubic meters).
•    North African countries: 14.1% (41 billion cubic meters).
•    Britain: 5.7% (16.6 billion cubic meters).
•    Qatar: 5.3% (15.5 billion cubic meters).
•    Other countries: 10.3% (29.9 billion cubic meters).

The European Union imported 120 billion cubic meters of liquefied gas in 2023, and the United States was the largest supplier to the bloc, with a share of 50% of total imports, and imports from the United States have almost tripled compared to 2021.

The largest importers of liquefied natural gas in the European Union came as follows, according to the European Commission, which did not disclose the countries' data:

1.    France.
2.    Spain.
3.    Netherlands.
4.    Belgium.
5.    Italy.

European gas demand falls

In 2023, domestic demand for natural gas in the EU fell by 7.1% compared to 2022, falling to 12.71 million teragol.

The largest declines in consumption occurred in:

•    Portugal (20.2%).
•    Austria (13.2%).
•    Czech Republic (11.9%).

On the other hand, the largest increases in consumption were recorded in:

•    Finland (25.6%).
•    Sweden (11.1%).
•    Poland (5.2%).
Russian gas flow methods

Russian gas flowed to Europe through 4 pipeline systems as follows:

•    Nord Stream line under the Baltic Sea.
•    Line through Belarus and Poland.
•    Line through Ukraine.
•    Turkstream line under the Black Sea through Turkey to Bulgaria.

After the war began, Russia cut off most supplies via the Baltic, Belarusian and Poland pipelines under Russian pressure to collect ruble gas for gas, and the Baltic pipeline was blown up.

Russia has cut supplies caused an energy crisis in Europe, Germany has been forced to spend billions of euros to set up floating terminals to import LNG that comes by ship, users have cut imports as prices soar, and Norway and the United States have closed the gap to become the largest gas suppliers.