Afrasianet - Al-Habib Al-Aswad - The projects and initiatives aimed at putting Libya on the path to a political solution are many, but the obstacles are greater in light of the conflict of interests and the desire of the leaders of the West and the East to establish their leadership in the scene.
Libya is preparing to welcome 2025 in the hope of overcoming the tunnel of division and fear of returning to the square of violence as a result of external interventions and the continuation of internal elites in procrastination and obstruction of efforts for a political solution, in a way that preserves its privileges in political, military,
financial and economic decision-making centers.
Speaker of the Libyan House of Representatives Aguila Saleh announced that the process of forming a new unified government is proceeding at a steady pace and in full coordination with the State Council, which is likely to be achieved early in the new year.
He said that the selection of the prime minister will be through a transparent process in an announced session of the House of Representatives, while welcoming the presence of some concerned parties to ensure the integrity of the procedures, stressing that two additional files that meet the conditions for candidacy for the presidency of the government have been accepted, as part of efforts to achieve a unified government that meets the aspirations of the Libyan people, which brings the number of candidates' files to nine.
Saleh pointed to an upcoming visit by a group of members of the State Council to the city of Qubba (east) next week to discuss the final steps related to the formation of the government and other national files.
Khaled al-Meshri and Mahmoud Tekala have been fighting for the post of head of the State Council since last August, leading to disagreements that observers believe reflect the state of political division in the country.
It is expected that early January will witness a meeting of members of the House of Representatives and the State in the eastern city of Derna to consider mechanisms to activate the Bouznika Agreement concluded last week in Morocco, including the formation of a joint working committee on the reassignment of a new executive authority, which was rejected by the Government of National Unity.
The efforts of the House of Representatives and the Council of State to form a unified government coincide with the activation of the initiative of the Acting Head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Stephanie Khoury, which includes the formation of a technical committee of Libyan experts, to develop options leading to addressing controversial issues in electoral laws, and options on how to reach elections in the shortest possible time, including the proposed guarantees, assurances and a time frame, as well as working with Libyan partners to facilitate and support a structured dialogue, to expand consensus. to resolve the causes of the long-standing conflict.
The House of Representatives requires the formation of a new government that extends its influence over the regions of the country, before announcing any new UN initiative to resolve the political crisis or launch the national reconciliation project and unify the military institution. Nor can the country be pulled out of the state of division from which it still suffers, and some parties fear that this situation will develop into further complexity.
In addition, the head of the National Elections Commission in Libya, Imad Al-Sayeh, announced the organization of the second phase of the municipal council elections on January 25, after recording an unprecedented participation rate in the first phase of the municipal entitlement, which was organized on November 16, where it exceeded 77.2% of those registered in the electoral registers.
The second phase will include 59 municipalities across the country, including Tripoli, Zawiya, Sirte (west), Benghazi, Tobruk (east), Sebha, Ghat and Jufra (south), with the electoral campaign to begin during the first week of January, while the mission affirmed that the United Nations in Libya stands ready to support Libyan-led and Libyan-owned political and electoral processes to achieve legitimacy, long-term stability and tangible progress for the country.
The Chairman of the Electoral Commission noted the importance of these elections in promoting popular participation and building confidence in the electoral system, stressing that the Commission continues its efforts to ensure transparency and integrity at all stages of the electoral process.
He said that the Commission seeks to implement the law, and that the mechanisms and procedures taken serve the interest of the electoral process, as well as seek to achieve the highest standards and principles of the electoral process, which gives the institution confidence, which represents the main element for its sustainability and professional work.
"We are working in transitional phases to which the state is subject in general, and the principle of neutrality is the basis for our communication with political parties, those inside and outside the authority," he said.
Libyans expect an African summit on the Libyan file to be held in Addis Ababa in February, during which the National Reconciliation Charter will be signed. In preparation for this, the Congolese President, Chairperson of the African Union High-Level Panel on Libya, Denis Sassou Nguesso, paid an official visit to the country, during which he met with the Presidents of the Presidential Council and the Government of National Unity in the capital Tripoli, the Speaker of Parliament, the Prime Minister and the Commander-in-Chief of the National Army in Benghazi.
In 2024, Libya witnessed a number of important events, the latest of which was on December 16, when the acting head of the UN mission, Stephanie, announced a new political process supported by the international community, aimed at resolving the crisis of controversial electoral laws and forming a consensus government to reach elections through the formation of an advisory committee to resolve controversial issues, noting that "any new government that may emerge from Libyan-Libyan negotiations must strictly adhere to the principles, guarantees, goals and deadlines for access." to elections as a condition for their legitimacy and international recognition."
The delegations of the House of Representatives and the State Council, meeting in the Moroccan resort of Bouznifa on December 19th, announced the agreement to reconstitute the executive authority in Libya based on the contents of Article IV of the Skhirat Agreement, and the formation of a joint working committee between the two councils on the reassignment of a new executive authority to communicate with the UN mission and with various local and international parties to support the course of the elections.
However, the Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity, Abdul Hamid Dabaiba, who enjoys the support of the Presidential Council, confirmed his refusal to cede power except to a government elected by the Libyan people, and in accordance with electoral laws emanating from the country's constitution on which a popular referendum is organized, which indicates that the tensions will continue during the next year, unless there is agreement to find a more effective mechanism to overcome the state of division between the various parties, while observers believe that the state of regional and international polarization reflects negatively on the crisis. Libya, especially in light of the worsening competition for influence in the region between Western countries and Russia, of which Libya is a microcosmic version.
On August 14, the Libyan House of Representatives voted in favor of withdrawing confidence from the Government of National Unity headed by Dabaiba and restoring the status of commander-in-chief of the Libyan army to its presidency, which means withdrawing it from the Presidential Council, stressing that "Osama Hammad's government is the legitimate government until a unified government is chosen."
As the decision of the Libyan House of Representatives as a withdrawal of recognition of the Skhirat Agreement of 2015 and the results of the Political Dialogue Forum signed in Geneva in 2021, it was treated as unenforceable on the ground, as the Dbeibeh government is still the internationally recognized government that exercises its functions from the capital Tripoli and extends its influence over the western regions of the country, while the government emanating from the Council of Ministers of the Libyan government headed by Osama Hammad continues to exercise its duties in the east and south of the country and in various areas controlled by the army. The National Command led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar from Benghazi.
The situation in Libya remains stagnant as a result of repeated disappointments, failure of initiatives, and the formation of emerging dictatorships, whether in Benghazi or Tripoli.
Five days after the parliament's decision, the Presidential Council announced the dismissal of the governor of the Central Bank of Libya, Al-Sadiq Al-Kabir, from his duties, against the background of objections and reservations about the way he was managed, which led to the closure of the bank's doors following a threat against a number of its officials and the kidnapping of one of them by an armed group, and the United Nations, the United States and Western countries rejected what it described as a "unilateral decision" by the Presidential Council to change the bank's board of directors and appoint an interim board of directors.
The crisis of division was reflected on the State Council in Tripoli, which witnessed a crack in its administrative and political structure since the sixth of last August, when the process of electing its president witnessed a debate after the run-off between Tekala and Meshri, as the rapporteur of the session announced that Tekala obtained 68 votes against 69 votes for Al-Meshri, then a discussion erupted about the legality of a member's vote after writing the name of Tekala in a place other than the designated place.
Observers point out that the situation in Libya still ranges between optimism on the one hand and pessimism on the other, as a result of repeated disappointments and the local street's habit of failing initiatives and forming emerging dictatorships, whether in Benghazi or Tripoli, where the country is subject to competition for the permanence of power between the forces benefiting from it, which mortgage their decisions to the external parties involved in the Libyan file, and strengthen those forces to resolve their internal conflicts, while the people remain content to watch the episodes of the transitional process and the phenomena surrounding them. Corruption, tyranny, dependency and tampering with the interests of the state and the unity of society.