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Will the region witness a resurgence of terrorist organizations?

Will the region witness a resurgence of terrorist organizations?

Afrasianet - Terrorist organizations are remarkably active in the shadow of wars and armed conflicts, taking advantage of security chaos and the weakness of state institutions to expand their influence, recruit new elements, and secure financial resources, taking advantage of social disintegration and political tensions.


How do terrorist organizations exploit wars?


•    Exploiting the security vacuum: These organizations fill the vacuum caused by the collapse of the security services in conflict zones.


•    A breeding ground for radicalization: Wars provide an environment that catalysts radicalization as a result of destruction, displacement, and social injustice.


•    Gaining support: Crises are exploited to recruit fighters from among war-affected youth.


•    Funding: These organizations often control natural resources or smuggling routes in areas 


Terrorist organizations live on chaos and the absence of institutions, and if there is no chaos, these organizations seek to create and create it." This fact is well understood by everyone who has suffered from the spread of terrorism.


War on Iran portends terrorism, chaos and the proliferation of nuclear weapons


Journalist Sam Kelly warns that an "unprovoked" attack by the United States and Israel on Iran could open the door to a dangerous phase of regional chaos and cross-border escalation, with the risks of the spread of terrorism and the expansion of the nuclear arms race.


The Independent's global affairs editor said the bombing would not be limited to the frontlines, as citizens in Middle Eastern countries were called  upon to take shelter in anticipation of Iranian retaliatory strikes, but their political and security effects would extend far beyond the region.


The strikes, which US President Donald Trump has described  as a "major combat operation", establish a new international logic based on unbridled force, which may encourage other authoritarian regimes to do the same, and the attack may be widely understood as targeting Islam, increasing the likelihood of radical mobilization and fueling new waves of violence.


After some 80,000 people were killed in Gaza and the Strip was leveled, Israel has continued to expand  its seizure of remaining Palestinian land in the West Bank, which, along with strikes on Iran, will lead to violent reactions and fuel terrorism.


Although the author acknowledges the Iranian regime's internal record, its regional interventions, and its support for armed forces in several arenas, the author emphasizes that overthrowing governments by military force is not a sustainable solution, and that there are international frameworks, such as the previous nuclear deal , that provided a path to contain Iran's nuclear program before it was abandoned. 


The U.S.-Israeli strike not only threatens to destabilize the region and escalate terrorism, but also puts  the international order to a deep test, as it weakens the idea of international law and reinforces the logic of nuclear deterrence as an option for survival, foreshadowing a more turbulent and dangerous world.


How will the United States and Israel turn the war on Iran into chaos in the region?


In this context,  Dr. Liqa Makki, a senior researcher at the Al-Jazeera Institute for Studies, predicted that the US-Israeli attack on Iran will continue, and there will be no negotiation or search for exits, because the target is not only Iran, but the Arab countries, Pakistan and Turkey, stressing that Israel is the only one that will benefit from this situation.


Makki enslaved that Washington and Tel Aviv should stop their attack on Iran until they found that the situation was ripe for the next stage of the war, which is the declaration of an armed rebellion on the periphery of Iran, and the creation of a state of chaos that Israel would benefit from.


Makki explained that Iran is a Persian bloc in the center, and in the periphery there are many nationalities, noting that Israeli and American intelligence have been working on the Iranian issue for a long time.


He pointed out that if the chaos in Iran spreads, it will spread to the rest of the region, stressing that the American and Israeli goal is not only to hit Iran, but also to target Arab countries, Pakistan and Turkey.


Makki spoke about the minorities that could act in the event of chaos, including the Baloch, an ethnic group mostly concentrated in the Balochistan region, which is divided between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan, and  also the Kurds and Azeris.


The chaos will lead to the emergence of large numbers of refugees, so the countries of the region have expressed their concern about the outbreak of war, and have sought with all their efforts to give precedence to the language of diplomacy and negotiation, according to Makki, who stresses that chaos will only benefit Israel.


Analysts pointed out that the war on Iraq produced the emergence of ISIS, which later expanded to take over large areas of Iraq, and despite its defeat later, the organization is still active in many countries, including African countries.


The organization, which was born with the chaos of the war on Iraq, believes that it can re-emerge and resume its activity in more than one region in West Asia and Africa due to the chaos of the American war on Iran, and also according to analysts, the emergence of Islamic organizations that may be more extreme due to Israel's criminal actions through the closure of Al-Aqsa Mosque to Muslims and other measures.

 

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