Afrasianet - Sherif Othman - Most Americans still remember James Carville, Bill Clinton's campaign adviser, saying, "It's the economy, stupid," that has taken hold over time and has become an iron base in American elections. Polls may show voters interested in democracy, national security, or foreign policy, but when they arrive at the polls, they usually remember the gas station they stopped that day, or the credit card statements they have to pay off in days.
Donald Trump is more aware of this fact than most living politicians, having arrived at the White House in 2016 benefiting from economic anxiety, then being partially hit by an economy shattered by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, before returning to power in 2024 on a clear promise to tackle inflation and reduce gasoline prices to less than $2 a gallon "within 12 months."
But now, less than two years into his second term, that promise is falling apart in plain sight, as the November 2026 midterm congressional elections approach like a speedtrain that cannot be ignored.
"I don't care about the midterm elections"
During one of his repeated conversations in which he stressed to reporters the need to open the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said that Iran believes it can "wait until my term ends" because of the approaching midterm elections, adding that he "does not care about the midterm elections."
When Trump ran for president in 2024, he won a second term, supported by a clear edge on the economy, inflation and energy prices. Just a year and a half later, those advantages began to turn into potential weaknesses, as voters grew increasingly dissatisfied with rising prices ahead of the upcoming fall election.
U.S. inflation rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April, the highest level since 2023, and much of this rise was due to the big jump in energy prices that has continued since the start of the war with Iran. Oil and gas prices have also risen to their highest levels since 2022, with the average price of a gallon of regular (cheaper) gasoline reaching $4.50.
Only 26% of Americans approve of Trump's performance on inflation, while only 21% are satisfied with his performance on gasoline prices, with noticeable dissatisfaction even among some of his supporters. Analysts believe that this is not just a passing political problem, but a major electoral crisis by any measure.
The Strait of Hormuz
Crisis exemplifies how geopolitics and economics have become two sides of the same political problem: although the United States imports a limited amount of oil through the Persian Gulf, domestic auto fuel prices are affected with each rise in global oil prices.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted that the era of cheap gasoline has been paused, warning that a return to prices below $3 a gallon may not happen before 2027, meaning voters' suffering at gas stations will continue beyond polling day.
With Americans forced to change their spending patterns due to the rise in the price of gasoline by more than 50% since the start of the war, Democrats are already building their electoral strategy around this influential issue. They point out that the cost of filling up a tank of fuel has not been as high since August 2022, when Republicans relentlessly focused on fuel prices and regained control of Congress. History seems to be repeating itself, but in the opposite direction.
President who backed down in front of the economy..
History is not the first American president to face this difficult test, in which economic anxiety puts pressure on electoral calculations, as history does not skimp on examples of American presidents who made or failed to make fateful decisions in an election year.
During the recession of 1974-1975, then-U.S. President Gerald Ford pursued an economically outspoken approach, and his campaign raised the slogan "Eliminate inflation now," a reference to the inability to confront inflation. As the recession deepened, Ford found himself politically exposed, losing to Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Democrat Jimmy Carter and his 1979 oil crisis were the most relevant example of what is happening today, as the Iranian revolution disrupted global oil supplies, and cars lined up at gas stations across the United States.
Carter and then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker were forced to opt for the difficult remedy, raising interest rates to about 20 percent. Inflation was eliminated at the time, but Carter's presidency also ended, with Republican Ronald Reagan coming to the White House in a landslide victory in 1980.
In 1990, George H.W. Bush raised taxes after he famously pledged during his election campaign: "Read my lips: No new taxes." Although the decision was financially justified in the opinion of many analysts, it was politically disastrous, and the 1991-1992 recession paved the way for the victory of Democratic nominee Bill Clinton.
Clinton herself raised taxes in 1993 to address the fiscal deficit before the election. Although the decision caused his party to lose the 1994 election, the end result was a budget surplus and a booming economy, and he was easily re-elected in 1996.
In 2008, George W. Bush faced the collapse of the global financial system weeks before the election. He was forced to choose between adhering to a free-market ideology or passing a $700 billion bank bailout.
Then came Barack Obama, a Democrat, who inherited the crisis and passed an economic stimulus package to save the auto industry in 2009. His party was punished in the 2010 election, but the economy recovered, and Obama won a second term in 2012.
The Danger of the Phrase "I Don't Care"
When Trump says he doesn't care about the midterm elections, it may be a sign of real strategic determination toward Iran, but ignoring the election does not necessarily mean ignoring the economic pressures that may push him to make more realistic and pragmatic decisions.
I am not claiming that democracies are perfect, but one of their advantages is that electoral accountability ultimately forces leaders to feel the effects of the policies they implement. A president who believes he is above this accountability may continue with an approach that has proven to be harmful for too long.
Some Republican strategists now argue that even if the war with Iran ends soon, voters may not feel their financial situation improve before the midterm elections, underscoring the hard rule of economic policy: the pain is felt immediately, and recovery takes months or years.
Despite reservations about personality and style, many do not deny that Trump is a master politician who has repeatedly defied expectations, creating the possibility that he has a plan to end the crisis with Iran and cut prices before November.
But the history of American presidents and elections teaches us one lesson that doesn't change: You can say you don't care about the economy, you can say you don't care about elections, but the American voter who fills up his car tank on the morning of Election Day will decide whether or not that's true.
