Afrasianet - Laila Nicolas - Today, the MAGA movement faces the biggest test in its history. The war on Iran has yet to deliver the "political investment" that Trump was counting on, deepening divisions within the Republican Party and weakening public confidence in his leadership.
US President Donald Trump's war on Iran on February 28, 2026, has plunged the American political landscape into an unprecedented phase of internal division, particularly within the movement that has brought him to power twice: the MAGA movement.
The MAGA movement has been the embodiment of right-wing populism since 2016 and is now facing the first existential test that threatens its internal cohesion, political effectiveness, and future as a "national conservative" movement that has won a sweeping victory in the 2024 presidential and congressional elections.
1- Solid base disintegration:
Various polls have shown that rejection of war on Iran was high within Trump's base even before it broke out, and voices against engaging in wars in the Middle East had begun to rise since after June 2025 (when Trump and Israel engaged in strikes on Iran).
After the war, there were striking signs of a decline in public enthusiasm for Trump's military rhetoric, with media reports of complete silence by the MAGA audience when he declared "We won" at a Kentucky event (March 13, 2026), and although the occasion was dedicated to his loyal supporters, this lukewarm reception reflects the beginning of a psychological rift between Trump and his base, which has long treated him as an inspirational charismatic leader.
One of the most prominent pillars of Trump's previous rhetoric was his "defense of the average American." But criticism of rising fuel prices led Trump's economic adviser Hassett to say that "consumers are affected by the Iran war is the administration's last concern right now," a statement that has sparked widespread indignation among a wide audience, especially among the popular groups that Maga represents.
Thus, this war and its predecessors, and the dissenting voices, showed that the movement did not unite behind Trump as it did on other issues, but rather experienced a structural division between a nationalist current – America First, and an interventionist current – the neoconservatives accused of being "Israel" first.
The division was not limited to the Republican Party and the MAGA movement, but also included the narrow circle around the US president, with press reports indicating "remorse" within the Trump team and a belief that the president had overestimated his ability to achieve a "quick victory" based on past military successes, especially in Venezuela.
According to an exclusive report by Reuters, the conflict within the administration has led to strategic paralysis and confusion, with economic and political advisers urging Trump to declare a swift and limited victory to avoid further damage, while hardliners push for sustained military pressure and a continuation of the war.
2- The future of the MAGA-Trumpist movement:
With speculation that the movement and the Republican Party will lose the 2026 midterm congressional elections, multiple scenarios are being put forward for the future of the movement as a whole.
Most indications suggest that MAGA will continue as a long-term political and social current, but not as a homogeneous bloc. It will branch into a nationalist current—America First, which opposes foreign interventions, and a conservative-interventionist current that promotes the use of American power in the world.
Within this division, the current of America will first try to find a figure who tries to preserve the "essence of the MAGA" and evade the war on Iran, where leadership within the movement is transferred to someone who can reconcile populist nationalism and stay away from wars. The name of US Vice President J.D. Vance is brought up, but Trump's personality that demands total loyalty makes it difficult for Vance to shirk support for the war or to distance himself from Trump's "wrong" decisions.
In contrast, in order to maintain his base, and if the war against Iran fails to yield clear results, Trump may produce a conspiratorial narrative about the role of the "deep state" or "inactionary allies," in an effort that may allow the movement to survive in the long run. Here, Trumpism may become more of a cultural identity tied to political grievances than a fixed "America First" governance project.
In conclusion, the MAGA movement is facing the biggest test in its history. The war on Iran has yet to achieve the "political investment" that Trump was counting on, deepening divisions within the Republican Party, weakening public confidence in his leadership, and threatening the economic pillars on which his populist rhetoric was based.
This may not necessarily lead to the complete end of the movement in the United States, but rather signals its structural transformation. The movement may transform from a unified electoral phenomenon to a multi-wing political current, which may continue in American politics, but it will not remain the same as the world has known between 2016 and 2024.
