Afrasianet - Raed Salha - U.S. historian Alfred W. McCoy, a professor of history at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, argues that President Donald Trump's war against Iran is a classic example of so-called "mini-militarism," military adventures that empires resort to in their declining stages in an attempt to restore prestige, but often accelerate their collapse rather than save them.
McCoy, the author of "In the Shadows of the American Century: The Rise and Fall of U.S. Global Power," notes that history provides frequent examples of this pattern. When imperial powers begin to decline, they tend to launch showy military strikes to compensate for the loss of influence, but they end up with political and economic catastrophes that expose their weakness and deepen their crises.
- McCoy: Trump's war on Iran could turn into one of those failed adventures that have contributed to the downfall of major empires throughout history, from ancient Athens to modern Britain
The United States is on this path, and that Trump's war against Iran could turn into one of those failed adventures that have contributed to the downfall of major empires throughout history, from ancient Athens to modern Britain, often backed by leaders who reflect deeper imbalances within the ruling elite.
Such wars, even if they achieve tactical military successes, impose a high cost, weaken alliances, and expose the limits of imperial power. As the fighting ends, the real results are apparent: erosion of influence, mounting international chaos, and declining economic standing.
The report reviews notable historical examples, including the defeat of Athens in Sicily in 413 BC, when a reckless decision led to the destruction of its fleet and the loss of its empire. It also points to Portugal's disaster in Morocco in 1578, which weakened it and paved the way for Spain's dominance over it, as well as Spain's failures in North Africa at the turn of the twentieth century, which contributed to its internal destabilization and the rise of dictatorship.
- McCoy: These wars impose a high cost, weaken alliances, and expose the limits of imperial power. As the fighting ends, the real results are emerging: erosion of influence, mounting international chaos, and declining economic standing
The most prominent example, according to McCoy, was the Suez Crisis of 1956, which exposed Britain's decline as a world power after a failed military intervention in Egypt that led to the loss of its prestige and hastened the end of its empire.
Returning to the present, the war on Iran has similar features. Despite intense U.S. and Israeli strikes, Tehran has been able to turn the tide by closing the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a global energy crisis and widespread economic pressure. This kind of asymmetrical response highlights the limits of U.S. power, where Washington can achieve military superiority but fails to achieve decisive strategic goals.
The United States is increasingly isolated, with its allies refusing to support the war and being heavily criticized internationally for its escalation. In contrast, rival powers such as China appear to many to be more stable, fueling a shift toward a new world order.
McCoy concludes that even if the United States had destroyed Iran's infrastructure or reached a face-saving settlement, it would have effectively lost the war by more important strategic criteria. As with previous empires, such a military adventure could accelerate the decline of U.S. hegemony and push toward a more turbulent and ambiguous international order after the end of "American peace."
