Who is stronger and who is weaker?
The Al-Aqsa flood exposed the fragility of the unipolar and showed that America can no longer assert its absolute hegemony while new poles are forming that challenge the international order.
Afrasianet - Since the beginning of the Al-Aqsa Flood in 2023, a new narrative has been formed that was not considered to be the birthplace of a multipolar world?
For a long time, America has been at the forefront of political, economic, and cultural influence. But as societies and civilizations in general have developed and grown, this throne has become shaky, or at least shakeable, as it has been built for decades at the expense of the weak.
With this growth, and with the shattered self looking to itself and its destiny, the need to shake this throne and challenge a false and purported divinity has emerged.
The first of these tremors was at the beginning of the Al-Aqsa Flood; with it, the power of America and Israel was shaken. Despite the military momentum employed in the war, this does not mean victory. The Flood emerged as a challenge to authoritarianism and unipolarity in the world.
Then events accelerated with the entry of Iran and its proxies, and with this entanglement, the unipolar narrative, both politically and cosmically, seemed to be no longer useful.
The question of truth or justice is not as important here as the question of polarization. Iran and its allies have emerged as a force seeking to form a cold, emotionally detached hegemonic pole. This is underscored by the failure of repeated negotiations between Iran and the United States, as well as between Israel and Lebanon, as Iran refuses to surrender or submit to Western powers.
It is natural, at first, for rivalry and defiance to occur. But this ascension either ends with the convergence of poles each controlling a particular sphere of influence, or with this ascent nipping in the bud. This opens up the possibility that political Shiite Islam has declined considerably, but that there may be a new ascension, far from ideology, based on economic and political interests before any belief or affiliation.
Saudi Arabia, China, and Russia are moving in parallel as international institutions collapse as the region and the world enter a gray phase in which it is difficult to determine the balance of stable power.
It is worth noting the failure of the United Nations, the UN Security Council, and the human rights system to deal with the Gaza war and the Ukraine war. These institutions are, in essence, part of the U.S.-led international order. In contrast, Egyptian and Turkish negotiations and initiatives have emerged as partial alternatives.
In addition, the United States has used what is known as the "militarization of the economy" by imposing blockades and sanctions on opposition countries, which has led these countries to seek national alternatives or establish economic alliances that collectively constitute a rising power.
Remarkably, China and Russia, despite their rise, do not have a well-defined model to replace the Western model, which opens the way for international chaos and turmoil in the balance of power.
We may see countries rising and others falling, in a phase that can be described as "disorder," a phase that is likely to prolong and negatively affect the global economy.
The intertwined economic interests of the United States and China also make it difficult for them to fully break with each other, so they are likely to remain key actors behind the scenes, rather than on the front lines.
Arab states, on the other hand, have so far tended to be neutral or appeased. Despite statements of condemnation and condemnation, they have avoided direct involvement in major conflicts, recognizing their inability to bear the consequences.
The priorities of internal stability and dealing with domestic crises also take precedence over any external engagement.
The old regime is collapsing and disintegrating, while the new regime is still in a difficult labor. We are currently in a gray phase, where it is difficult to determine who is stronger and who is weaker.
