Afrasianet - Abbas Othman - In the wake of the U.S.-Iran war, Gulf states have begun to look for alternatives by expanding partnerships with Turkey, China, and Russia, developing their own military capabilities, and strengthening diplomatic contacts with Iran.
The war that the United States is waging against Iran is bringing more Middle Eastern countries into its orbit. At the beginning of the confrontation with what Tehran described as American aggression, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei turned to the Arab Gulf states, pledging that the IRGC's strikes would only target American bases, and calling on neighboring countries to close Pentagon facilities on their territory as soon as possible.
For years, the "security-for-loyalty" equation has been based on hosting U.S. military bases in the Gulf states. But Iran's operations against those bases have produced unexpected results for Americans, with far-reaching consequences. Part of the myth of the "invincible deterrence system" has been shattered. Iran no longer needs to defeat the United States in the traditional sense, but it is enough to inflict unacceptable damage on it. U.S. bases have become easy targets for the Iranians.
At the same time, the U.S. territory itself was unharmed, while the Gulf states bore the full brunt of the strikes. This has led them to question the security model based on the U.S. military presence.
Abdulkhaleq Abdullah, a former adviser to the UAE president, on the need to close U.S. bases was the first sign of growing discontent in the region. In his view, the UAE no longer needs U.S. protection, but U.S. bases have become a burden that must be discarded. This view is not marginal, as Abdullah is an influential analyst who reflects the orientations of a segment of the ruling elite.
In light of the U.S.-Iran war, Gulf states have begun to look for alternatives, by expanding partnerships with Turkey, China, and Russia, developing their own military capabilities, and strengthening diplomatic contacts with Iran. Criticism of U.S. military strategy is growing, the demand for "sovereign security" is growing, and trust in the United States as a key partner seen as under the influence of the Zionist lobby is declining.
Thus, the first step was taken toward rethinking the geopolitical structure of the Middle East. Interestingly, this rhetoric is not limited to the East, but is also heard in Europe. Former British diplomat Alistair Crook has stated that Arab countries may expel U.S. military personnel from their soil. In his view, instead of achieving a quick victory, the United States is in danger of losing its influence in the Middle East. Iran can also present its neighbors with two options: Either close the U.S. bases or continue to receive strikes.
After the conflict ends, the United States may be forced to reduce its military presence in the region. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi authorities are considering abandoning the dollar in oil settlements. According to the Wall Street Journal, the UAE has warned the United States that it could switch to the Chinese yuan or other currencies if it faces a shortage of dollars.
The dollar's dominance is mainly based on its exclusive use in the oil trade. Although the UAE dirham is pegged to the dollar, the war in the Middle East has created pressure on the UAE currency due to capital flight. Emirati officials describe this offering as a "precautionary measure." Emirati diplomats say their country is still avoiding the worst financial fallout, but may need significant U.S. economic support in the future.
Saudi Arabia has also refused to renew its 50-year petrodollar oil agreement with the United States. At the same time, India pays for Russian oil in UAE dirhams. Abu Dhabi may face a dollar shortage and a devaluation of its currency as a result of capital outflows and a decline in foreign currency revenues.
The stability of the dirham depends on the continuous injection of the dollar, which means that the UAE will not be able to do without US financial support, or will be forced to gradually move away from the dollar, which could lead to a series of The interactions threaten the entire Petrodollar system.
The U.S. diplomatic failure in negotiations with the Iranian side in Pakistan has not yielded gains for any party in the region. Indeed, the stumble of Trump and his team has alarmed the entire world. In light of this, the price of oil has risen to $110 per barrel.
It is clear that the only party benefiting from the renewed US-Iranian military confrontation is Israel, which continues to bomb southern Lebanon despite what is said to be ceasefire understandings reached in Washington. The Israeli factor has become one of the most prominent drivers of escalation in the Middle East.
An incident in the Lebanese town of Dibal caused widespread controversy after an Israeli soldier smashed a statue of Jesus Christ with a sledgehammer. The photo quickly spread on social media, while the Israeli "army" acknowledged its authenticity. In the absence of a reaction from world religious leaders, the incident was seen as proof that what is happening in southern Lebanon is of the nature of pressure on the cultural and religious identity of the local population.
Israel was quick to contain the scandal, with the prime minister and foreign minister offering a formal apology, a 30-day prison sentence and interviews with witnesses. But the Israeli soldier's behavior has already led to serious consequences in the Middle East, where Christians and Muslims are beginning to form in the face of so-called Israeli aggression, and Israel's international isolation is growing.
This act of vandalism has become a symbol of the deep contradictions in the region. Many in Tel Aviv see these acts as not exceptional, despite official political statements. There have also been reports from other Christian villages in Lebanon of the destruction of shrines and churches.
These incidents are no longer isolated within Israel. In 2024, 111 anti-Christian hate crimes were recorded, including 46 direct attacks, while in 2025 there were more than 180 incidents. The Rossing Center, which specializes in Jewish-Christian relations, also documented 61 physical assaults over the past year, according to American commentator Shael Ben-Ephraim.
In December 2024, the Israeli "army" took control of Jabal al-Sheikh in Syria, removed the cross on its summit, while posting a video of the incident online. In July 2025, an Israeli tank bombed the Catholic Church of the Holy Family in the Gaza Strip.
This series of manifestations of subversion and racism further complicates Israel's relationship with the multinational and sectarian countries of the Middle East.
Thus, the "importation of danger" to Arab states from beyond the ocean, which has become an integral part of the U.S. war against Iran, exacerbates chronic problems in the U.S. relationship with the countries of the region, and contributes to undermining the U.S. system of hegemony and Israeli aggressive behavior that has dominated the Middle East for decades.
