Afrasianet - Dr. Hassan Nafia - New balances of power are taking shape in the region as Trump is forced to sign a memorandum of understanding with Iran that does not meet Netanyahu's ambitions and is expected to push the region toward a new crossroads.
Finally, after painstaking mediation efforts by many Arab and Muslim countries, especially Pakistan and Qatar, the final version of a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States was announced, a major event that was warmly welcomed by world leaders and leaders, with the exception of one person, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
While the mediators were doing everything in their power to fill the remaining gaps in the final version of the desired agreement, Benjamin Netanyahu was doing his best to sabotage the ongoing negotiations and was trying with all his might to block any possible agreement between Iran and the United States, which explains his decision to launch an attack on the southern suburbs of Beirut during the final moments of negotiations, believing that such an attack would provoke violent reactions that would prevent any agreement with Iran. It may lead to the resumption of war against it.
This is what he wishes and even desires. However, what happened was the exact opposite, as his evil behavior caused President Trump, who is most eager to get a deal done as soon as possible for local, regional, and international pressing reasons, to make concessions that convinced Iran that it was wise to refrain from responding to Netanyahu's provocations in exchange for the memorandum of understanding including an explicit text committing the United States to stop the war on all fronts, especially on the Lebanese front, which Netanyahu believed opened a loophole from which he could penetrate To torpedo any potential agreement.
Once the formal signing ceremony of the memorandum of understanding approved by Iran and the United States is completed and the Middle East region is practically ready to enter a new phase, its features are expected to be radically different from what the United States and Israel have planned.
It is true that this memorandum has not resolved all the contentious issues that will be discussed in detail in subsequent negotiations that will begin and last for 60 days, which can be extended, but it sets insurmountable ceilings, and can therefore be used to determine the size of the gains and losses that each party has achieved or can achieve at the end of the negotiations.
It is also true that its official text has not yet been published, but what has been leaked so far and agreed upon by reliable news sources is enough to paint a general picture of what the post-war Middle East will look like, compared to what it was before.
Before the 12-day war, the United States and Israel were demanding that Iran abide by the following:
1- Dismantling its nuclear program in the Libyan way.
2- Reducing its missile program to a level that does not pose any threat to Israel's security.
3- Severing its financial and arms relations with all its proxies in the region.
Because Iran did not acquiesce to these demands, the United States and Israel decided to launch a joint war against it in June 2025 aimed at destroying both its nuclear and missile programs, which was not fully achieved, and explains Netanyahu's urgent quest to convince Trump that the Iranian regime is at its weakest, and that its final elimination is possible through a crushing blow that topples his political and military leaders.
When he succeeded, a second war was waged against Iran on February 28, 2026, and lasted 39 days, with the stated goal of this time being to topple the Iranian regime. Even though this goal was not achieved, Trump continued to repeat that Iran had been defeated militarily and had no choice but to surrender completely.
This continued until he was forced to sign a memorandum of understanding with Iran that did not satisfy his ally Netanyahu and revealed new balances of power in the region.
An impartial observer does not need much trouble to discover that the 39-day war enabled Iran to:
1- Imposing its control over the Strait of Hormuz, while at the same time demonstrating the inability of the United States to reopen it by force to the movement of global trade, with all the negative impact this entails on the international economy and the American position in the world system.
2- Inflicting severe damage not only on Israel, but also on the US military bases deployed in the region, while at the same time being able to retain the bulk of its missile and drone capabilities, in a clear indication that it is still capable of fighting new battles that may be forced on it.
3- Protecting its uranium enriched to 60 % with a quantity weighing approximately 440 kilograms, enough to produce 8 nuclear warheads within a short period of time, which means that it has been and continues to be a "nuclear threshold" state with all the status and negotiating power that this entails.
These three facts forced the United States to:
1- Negotiate with the regime that it sought to overthrow before, which means that its legitimacy must be recognized and that it must be dealt with directly as a player capable of playing a role in settling the region's crises instead of dealing with it as a major source of threat to its security.
2- Accepting Iran's demand for the need to end the war on all fronts, especially the Lebanese front, as a precondition for entering into any negotiations related to the core issues, which means limiting the margin available for the use of negotiation as a means of deception and waging war, as has happened and been repeated before.
3. Compliance with the principle of parity by organically linking the rate of fulfillment of obligations imposed on both sides, which means that Iran's fulfillment of obligations related to its nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz should be matched equally by the United States' fulfillment of its obligations related to the lifting of the embargo on Iran's frozen funds and the lifting of sanctions imposed on it.
Therefore, it can be said that the careful and faithful implementation of everything stated in the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran will inevitably lead to one outcome, regardless of the details that will be discussed in the 60-day negotiations: Iran's commitment not to manufacture or acquire nuclear weapons from any source in exchange for the lifting of sanctions imposed on it, which means that Iran will come out of its isolation once and for all, become a major player in the region, and move the balance of power in the region in a completely different direction For everything that Israel has been planning, which is absolutely supported by the United States in general and the Trump administration in particular.
It may be useful to recall here a basic fact that Netanyahu was planning a new Middle East led by the Zionist entity, which was clearly demonstrated by a map that he showed and reviewed in a speech to the United Nations General Assembly in September 2023, a few weeks before the "Al-Aqsa Flood" that he used as a pretext for expansion and the imposition of "Greater Israel" on the region by force of arms, in the context of a series of wars he decided to wage in the wake of the "flood."
In Palestine, he was able to destroy the Gaza Strip, reoccupy 70% of its area, kill and wound 10% of its population, seize large areas of the West Bank, establish new settlements and military bases, and then insist on disarming all armed resistance factions.
In Syria, he occupied new territories with an area of at least 500 square kilometers, and then interfered in their internal affairs and prepared the atmosphere for the outbreak of a civil war under the pretext of "protecting the Druze." In Lebanon, he was able to eliminate most of the political and military leaders who make up the first rank of Hezbollah, and then to occupy the area south of the Litani, and at the same time he strived to disarm Hezbollah.
Because he was certainly aware of the impossibility of the "Greater Israel" project becoming a reality on the ground without subjugating Iran politically and militarily, he did everything in his power to persuade the United States to enter into a joint war with him on Iran, but he succeeded in his endeavor only with Trump, who managed to drag him to participate with him in two major wars that failed to achieve his main goal of toppling the Iranian regime, which eventually forced Trump to enter into unilateral negotiations with Iran As mentioned earlier.
However, it can be said that new balances of power are beginning to take shape in the region in parallel with Trump being forced to sign a memorandum of understanding with Iran that does not meet Netanyahu's ambitions, which is expected to push the region towards a new crossroads: either Netanyahu succeeds in torpedoing the barely concluded agreement that is about to enter into actual and full implementation, which may enable him to regain the momentum needed to revive his dream In this case, the countdown to the Middle East's exit from the bottleneck in which it entered may begin due to the overlap of accumulated crises that have plagued it over the past five decades, but this requires the availability of a set of conditions that have not yet matured and the analysis of another article.
