Afrasianet - Oraib Al Rantawi - Instead of deviating from the negotiation process for Washington, Washington's "suburban aggression" has deepened its entry into it, and from the gate of making more concessions... Instead of delaying or thwarting the agreement, he hastened it and accelerated the pace of bridging the remaining gaps.
At the middle of last night (Sunday-Monday), Dr. Wassim Bazzi and I were at the guest of Mr. Abdel Rahman Ezz El-Din on Al-Mayadeen TV, to talk about the imminent "Iranian strike" on Tel Aviv, in response to Israel's targeting of the southern suburbs. We were in the climate of a new tripartite war round (Iran, Hezbollah and Israel), which could turn into a quartet if Washington decides, as it always does, to win for its ally and protégé, so I did not rule out that "Al-Ajil" will start appearing on the screen, while we are live, talking about the start of the Iranian missile bombardment of Israel, or shortly after the end of the program at the latest.
The focus of the three of us was on answering a question that was knocking on our minds, and the minds of millions of people around the world: would we be facing a scenario of a "limited tour" or drift into a "broad war", and what would be the fate of the "memorandum of understandings" that were said to have been completed between the two sides, or was it almost done?
The "delays" have already begun to rain, but it came loaded with completely different news, it started with a tweet by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, heralding that the world has "officially" reached the agreement of the two parties to the memorandum, and their joint decision to go to Geneva to sign it, in person, and not electronically as planned, and next Friday instead of last Sunday, as Trump planned and desired, that he might get his "eightieth birthday gift" from Iran, confirming for the thousandth time, his pathological narcissism, his schizophrenia that leads to "syndrome", and his complete alienation from reality.
Unfamiliar language
What struck me about the Iranian reactions to the treacherous Israeli raid on the southern suburbs of Beirut, and increased my certainty that the Iranian strike is coming, is the unprecedented language adopted by senior officials to comment on the Israeli aggression, as the chief negotiator and Speaker of the Shura Council, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, says to Nabih Berri: "Our souls are your souls, and the nakedness of the relationship between us is inseparable." "Hezbollah is Iran's liver and the axis of resistance," and that "patience has run out, the order has been issued, and the platforms are preparing for the zero moment," and alongside these, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohammad Baqer Zulqadr, was saying, "Lebanon is our soul, and the response of the fighters of Islam is coming, and violating Iran's red lines will not be tolerated."
I don't recall reading anything similar to it for years and decades, and it goes beyond "feelings and emotions" to try to impose the "cohesion equation" that Netanyahu has always sought to dismantle, adhering to the "separation of tracks" equation.
This time, the scope of the Iranian threat and threat of force and the option of resorting to it expanded, and Bab al-Mandeb was introduced into the equation of "Dahiya vs. Hormuz", in an escalation of the situation, which put Trump in a spiral of confusion, impatience and "collapse", as described by American and Israeli (not Iranian) observers, and made him say what he said to Netanyahu, which we do not mention, and the whole scene opened up to two options for which there is no third option:
1- Either Washington will make more concessions, this time from the "Netanyahu bag," in favor of Hezbollah, as well as gains for Iran, including the evacuation of what is ambiguous in the memorandum.
2 - Or going to a new round of fighting, we know how it starts, and no one knows how it develops and where it ends... Trump's ships docked on the first option, while Netanyahu, while "designing" the raid on the suburb, was pushing for the second option, the option he wanted and desired, pinning his hopes on obtaining a new term at the head of Israel's post-election government.
10 Hours Changed the Scenery
In the analysis: Since the beginning of the 40-day war, Tehran has realized that the conflict over the "rules of engagement" must be resolved once and for all, God willing, Tehran will not accept to be a "smear" for the Americans and Israelis. It extracted from Washington a commitment to stop the war and prevent its renewal, but it has noted, according to its officials, that the Trump administration is either incapable or unwilling to control the "neighborhood noise" in Tel Aviv.
Here, Tehran decided to carry out the mission itself, in partnership with its allies, as if its mouthpiece says: there is no return from imposing rules of engagement that "tie the hand of the Israelis" and eradicate its bullying on it and the rest of the parties of the axis, and it had what it wanted, at least at the level of the text, while the order of the American, especially Israeli commitment, is subject to trial and test in the coming days.
Tehran is aware that there is no value in an agreement with the Americans, if the Israeli continues to practice and brutality on various fronts, and in order to contain the game of "good cop and bad cop", it does not mind Washington's commitment not to engage in a new war in defense of Israel, so it and its allies take over the matter of Israeli arrogance, and this is the weakest faith, or the United States exerts enough pressure and plays with the cards in its possession to restrain Tel Aviv and limit its impulses and. Cut her bloated stomach, which is insatiable and full... Washington chose to take the second option, although it kept the door open for the first option, and it did so when Trump threatened Netanyahu to leave him alone in the face of Tehran and the axis, if he did not crack what he was ordered.
In the analysis, too, but based on information, leaks, and many tweets, the ten hours that separated the "suburban aggression" and the announcement of the agreement, witnessed an intensive diplomatic movement to prevent the outbreak of a new round of confrontation, as the sources say that the mediators, especially Qatar, have succeeded in obtaining three important concessions, and perhaps there are others that we do not know about so far:
There are those who believe that the gradual Israeli withdrawal order from the "Yellow Zone" has been issued by the United States, although the Trump administration still prefers not to submit it to the Islamabad track, and although it is still officially committed to the Washington track, it has begun to lose confidence in the ability of this track to record serious breakthroughs, which explains in the eyes of the same sources, its opening of a third track between the two tracks, and by that I mean the "Ain el-Tineh" track with President Nabih Berri.
It seems that Washington has finally realized that peace is being concluded between the two warring parties, and not in the absence of one of them, and that the satire and demonization of Hezbollah that take place in the corridors of the US State Department will not lead to a breakthrough, even if it appeases the Israeli delegation and provokes its satisfaction that there are a number of Lebanese who "love Israel more than their country," in the words of one of its members, the same phrase repeated by the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt in a different language and in another place, when he said that among the members of the Lebanese negotiating team, from He is "more Israeli than the Israelis themselves."
This is explained by the multiple leaks that were presented to multiple channels of communication, direct and indirect, conducted by American and international parties with the leadership of Hezbollah, in Islamabad, Beirut, and Tehran, and revolve in their entirety about how to integrate the party into the political process, always on the basis that those who fight are the first and the most capable of negotiating, and not those who carry out this role on their behalf, without a mandate, and often against it, its interests and priorities.
Second, I mean the "concessions of the last quarter of an hour" made by Washington to Tehran, which is represented in the immediate and complete lifting of the naval blockade imposed on Iranian ports and coasts, after the memorandum in previous drafts spoke of a gradual lifting, coinciding with and parallel with the steps of the gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a point that has been pointed in Iran's favor and interest.
Third, this came in the context of "leaks" that have not yet been confirmed, and may remain in secrecy for a while, and stipulate an increase in the amounts released from the frozen Iranian funds, in the form of "incentives" that encourage the Iranians to accept the memorandum of understanding on the one hand, and not to continue implementing its threats to respond militarily to the "suburb aggression" on the other hand.
When the magic turned on the magician
Whether Netanyahu wanted to block the "memorandum of understanding" before it was concluded, or he wanted, according to observers, to assert by brute force that Lebanon would not be included in the agreement, or rather, that Israel would not be included in this clause of the agreement (the Lebanon clause), the magic of his adventure turned on the magician, and instead of taking Washington out of the negotiation track, it deepened its entry into it and from the gate of making more concessions. Instead of delaying or thwarting the agreement, he hastened it and accelerated the pace of bridging the remaining gaps.
But what is certain is that this does not mean for a moment that Israel will stop its attempts to abort the settlement tracks on the Lebanese and Iranian fronts, and that it will not continue its mobile wars, albeit with different tools, and that it will continue to wait for opportunities to plant its poisoned arrows in the body of Iran, Hezbollah and their allies.
It is also certain that Tel Aviv's sabotage task will be more difficult and more complex than ever, especially after every progress on the diplomatic tracks, after its role in disrupting American interests and priorities is exposed, and after the growing sense in the White House that this "partner" is heading to be a burden on it, rather than an asset.
What is certain is that Netanyahu himself, his party and his coalition, will pay the price for their disappointing gambles and strategic failure to translate the gains on the ground into political and strategic achievements, and the "King of Israel" may lose his place under the sun as soon as the polls open next October.
Israel will continue its penetrations of the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, albeit with relatively low rates of violence and destruction, and will continue its intelligence and cyber wars against Iran, and will work to obstruct the 60-day negotiations by burdening them with more demands and conditions, but in everything it says and does, it will face greater difficulties in reaching its goals and objectives, and its isolation will increase with the growing awareness of the international community that only Tel Aviv is the one who is shouting war and escalation, indifferent to its repercussions on the energy crisis, global markets, and freedom of navigation, and will increase This is because of its isolation and rejection.
It will be difficult for the "Abrahamic normalization train" to continue its transitions from one station to another, after it has revealed to the Gulf states that "Tel Aviv" is not a "potential ally" as some of them have bet on it, but has become a "latent threat" that affects the Gulf countries in their security, stability and prosperity, and this will have repercussions on energy maps, their pipelines, export ports, highways, railways, and transit trade, throughout the region.
The region and the world, in the post-war phase, will not remain the same as before, as there are changes in the balance of power and its dynamics that make it difficult for Washington and its ally to extend hegemony and redraw the maps of geography, power and influence.
