Israel threatened to intervene to protect Druze in Jaramana area south of Damascus after they clashed with Syrian security forces 

Afrasianet – Abdullah Ocalan's appeal on 27 February to disband the group and lay down arms was a move with regional influence.

Only a few days after the move, which would affect Turkey's balances in Iraq, Iran, and Syria, the Israeli reaction came by declaring its support for the Kurds, Druze, and Alawites in Syria.

The Israeli Ministry of Defense and Foreign Ministry announced that any intervention by the Damascus government against a small group of armed Druze, who refuse to hand over their weapons and engage in confrontations against government forces, would be met with an Israeli attack on Damascus.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar did not stop at that, but also threatened the Damascus government, warning it against hostile treatment of Kurds, Druze and Alawites. These statements were accompanied by a military escalation, with the Israeli army targeting nearly a hundred sites inside Syria in two days.

Israel seeks to destabilize Syria

It seems that the rise of Ahmad al-Shara's government, after the Syrian revolution, and its broad regional support and acceptance was not welcomed by Israel.

But what bothered her most was Turkey's unprecedentedly growing influence in Syria and the region, as well as pressure on the PKK's Syrian wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), to lay down arms. 

Although the PYD has received military support from the United States, it also has close ties to Israel. Ilham Ahmed, the foreign relations officer of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – which includes PKK affiliates – has previously stated that Israel must be part of the solution to ensure the security of Syria and the Middle East.

In fact, Israel seeks to prevent Syria from regaining its stability and strength, using Druze in the south, Alawites in the coast, and Kurds in the north.

Its other goal is to counter the growing Turkish influence, as Israeli and Western think tanks and analysts assert that the expansion of Turkish influence threatens Israeli interests in the region.

Attempts to curb Turkish influence

The Syrian revolution reshaped the regional landscape, with countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE siding with Damascus. U.S. and Israeli pressure on Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia to take in Palestinian refugees deported from Gaza has also contributed to this regional alliance.

But Turkey, which has supported the Syrian opposition for years, suddenly found itself faced with a new reality that gives it unprecedented influence that extends as far as Israel's borders.

Tel Aviv's concern was exacerbated after the Lebanese prime minister announced from Ankara the start of a new phase of bilateral relations, raising Israeli fears of Turkey's growing role in the region.

The PKK's announcement of its intention to disband the group and lay down arms further strengthens Turkey's position. Iraq, which has long been an Israeli sphere of influence, looks with satisfaction at these developments. To counter this, Israel has begun to intensify its efforts to destabilize Syria by exploiting the minority card.

On March 2, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar stated that "the Syrian regime was not elected by its own people, but by a group of jihadists who took control of Idlib, then invaded Damascus and the rest of the areas by force. They have no right to persecute minorities such as Druze, Kurds, or Alawites." 

On March 1, the Israeli Defense Ministry's Information Office issued a statement stating that "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Minister of Defense have instructed to prepare to protect the Druze in the Jaramana neighborhood of Damascus, who have been attacked by Syrian regime forces."

Are the Druze siding with Israel?

Experts who talked about the Syrian file confirm that the Druze card waved by Israel is nothing but a hoax and does not have any credibility on the ground.

Levent Kamal, managing editor of Clash Report, who specializes in Syria, says: "It is true that some Druze have relatives in Israel who work in the army or as workers, but they are isolated from the major Druze community in Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan.

Druze religious and political leaders, led by Walid Jumblatt, have affirmed their commitment to stand by Damascus, making any Druze-Israeli alliance nearly impossible."

Dr. Mustafa Ekiji, a researcher specializing in the Syrian opposition and the ethnic composition of Syria, believes that the Israeli bet on the Druze is useless, explaining: "All major Druze families refuse to cooperate with Israel. Even in the Golan Heights, there are only a few small villages that accept Israeli citizenship, and the rest of the Druze are Arabs who reject any alliance with Tel Aviv."

Coinciding with the escalation of tension between Damascus and Tel Aviv, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt announced his intention to visit the Syrian capital to meet with President Ahmed Al-Shara, in a move aimed at emphasizing the Druze's commitment to supporting the Syrian state, and not being drawn into any suspicious alliances with Israel.

Can Alawites and Kurds ally with Israel?

Israel is also trying to co-opt the Nusayris and Kurds to its side against Damascus. But according to analyst Levent Kamal, Syria's Alawites have been marginalized for decades, and even under Assad their economic and social situation was not good, so they have no interest in getting involved in any new conflict. 

Dr. Mustafa Ekiji believes that Israel may find some acceptance within the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), but it will not be able to mobilize the Kurds against Damascus, explaining: "After years of conflict, the Kurds do not want to ignite a new front, especially since the majority of the active forces in Syria, including Arabs, support the Sharaa government. There are also divisions within the YPG over Abdullah Ocalan's call for the dissolution of the group."

"Israel is unable to provide direct field support to the  YPG, making its plan unworkable on the ground."

Trump-Erdogan meeting will settle the issue

For Washington, Syria is no longer economically attractive, as its oil resources are limited compared to Ukraine, where the United States is looking to acquire huge wealth. But Israel has succeeded in convincing Washington, through its lobbies, that the US withdrawal from Syria will open the door for Turkey to expand its influence at the expense of Israeli security.

Therefore, Israel is currently seeking to create an internal crisis in Syria by fueling the sectarian issue, with the aim of keeping Washington engaged in the Syrian file. However, despite these manoeuvres, the facts on the ground seem unfavorable to the Israeli plan.

Turkey, for its part, is seeking to convince Trump of a political settlement that integrates the  YPG into the new Syrian army, ensuring the stability of the region without the need for a military confrontation. According to observers, the upcoming meeting between Erdogan and Trump will determine the course of events in Syria, and will lead to one of two possibilities:

•    Either Turkey launches a military operation against the YPG.

•    Or the group is peacefully integrated into the new Syrian system.

If the  YPG  has a rational outlook, it will not bet on Israel, which has only brought destruction to the region, but will seek to build a shared future with Syria and Turkey.