Afrasianet - Military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, particularly in the field of drones, is an additional source of enhanced Russian capabilities in Ukraine. The war has demonstrated Iran's ability to play the role of a primary supplier of military technology to Russia.
In the space of one week, three major events stole observers' attention in international affairs:
- Stop the war on Gaza.
- Signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement between Iran and Russia.
- Trump's inauguration.
How are these events interconnected, and what impact do they have on the Middle East?
The beginning of the partnership agreement, its dimensions, and the extent of its strength and ability to confront American influence in the region?
For many months, this agreement was waiting to show its terms and the extent of the development it will throw on the relationship between the two countries.
The agreement is expected to be signed at the beginning of last October.
Contrary to expectations, the signing was postponed time after time, in a climate of uncertainty about the reasons and who postponed each time.
But the events in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the relationship between Moscow and Tehran with those events, explained a lot. What are the reasons for the postponement, and why now?
Over the summer, the world was living at the pace of the American electoral struggle, and everyone was measuring their steps in proportion to their preferences for the approach that should win in America, and that serves their interests in the relationship with Washington.
Both Moscow and Tehran have avoided directly clashing with Washington, or taking steps that might improve each other's chances of an unwanted candidate.
While the Russians preferred the arrival of Trump, the Iranians were betting on the arrival of Harris and the Democrats, and the core of the bet was on restoring and expanding the nuclear agreement, as an entry point to improve the relationship and extinguish its many lightnings. This may have been one of the reasons Iran was biting on its growing wounds. What does this have to do with the agreement later?
As a result, the agreement was postponed from October, and talk became of "a few weeks." Trump won in early November a landslide, the Israeli war on Lebanon had reached its peak, the options for Iran were difficult, and the hope of restoring the nuclear deal carried him with Harris to the pages of a stage ago. It looked like the Russians would win their bet.
But what happened next was very surprising. Trump pressed to end the Gaza and Lebanon wars, the government in Syria was changed by a lightning Turkish move, and Trump's intentions to stop the Ukrainian war began to lose their realism, with the Russians and Ukrainians rejecting the first opening version of the settlement. At the same time, Trump continued to pass threats and winks to Iran, and the latter realized the arrival of the unwanted president, so it dealt flexibly and continued to send positive messages, and with it the agreement with the Russians was postponed again until the beginning of the year.
By the beginning of 2025, it was clear that Trump would not be able to easily stop the Ukrainian war, leading the Russians to show Washington that they have troublesome options.
As far as Iran is concerned, the exchange deal between Hamas and Israel has come to an end. This removes from Iran a great burden that the war has been placing on itself and its allies.
What is remarkable here is that Netanyahu was forced to accept a deal that was proposed by Biden last June, and which Netanyahu sabotaged. The latter accepted to fulfill Hamas' conditions that it had lifted since the beginning of the war. The Houthis then continued to bomb Israel until the last minute before the ceasefire. But do Iranians trust that the conflict with them will stop here?
It doesn't seem like that, on the contrary. The Iranians are wary of continued threats against them, and are anticipating the possibility of stopping the war on their allies and fighting it directly against them.
Israeli officials insist on threatening the agreements with Lebanon and Gaza, and Smotrich says he has received a pledge from Netanyahu that the war will continue until Hamas is eliminated. Netanyahu says he has received a pledge from Trump to do the same. This highlights the need for Tehran to move closer to a larger ally and then continue to reach out to get a deal with the Americans. Then came the agreement with Russia. So what does it weigh?
The agreement was signed on January 17, and here are its most prominent points:
Military and Security Cooperation:
• Strengthening military cooperation and intelligence exchange between the two countries.
• Planning joint military exercises and exchanging experiences in defense fields.
• A commitment not to allow the territory of either country to be used for attacks against the other.
This aspect of the agreement seems kind of disappointing, as it did not include secret annexes, why?
Observers were waiting for two points in this context: the existence of a Russian nuclear umbrella over Iran, which decisively prevents the possibility of waging war on the latter and overthrowing it, or the existence of a joint defense clause between the two countries, which makes war with one of them necessarily a war with the other.
The agreement contained only general context and broad expressions without specifying any of these procedures, and therefore did not introduce many articulated changes. Rather, it is the development of an already existing path. What about trade and the economy?
Economic and trade cooperation:
• Develop trade and economic relations, including sales of civil nuclear technology and gas from Russia to Iran.
• Establishing new transport corridors and strengthening transport infrastructure between the two countries.
• Cooperation in confronting Western economic sanctions and developing mechanisms to overcome their effects.
Cooperation in the field of energy:
• Expanding cooperation in the energy sector, including the development of joint projects in the fields of oil, gas and peaceful nuclear energy.
• Facilitating gas supplies between Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan.
At the level of scientific and cultural cooperation:
• Promote cooperation in the fields of science, education and culture, including the exchange of students and researchers and the establishment of joint cultural events.
• Developing joint ventures in the fields of advanced technology and innovation.
It was important that the comprehensive agreement included cooperation in the field of infrastructure
Cooperation in the field of transport and logistics:
• Develop new transport corridors to promote trade and facilitate the movement of goods between the two countries.
• Improving transport infrastructure and facilitating customs procedures to enhance economic cooperation.
Cooperation in the face of common threats:
• Coordination in the face of common security threats, including the fight against terrorism and organized crime.
• Exchange of information and expertise in the field of cybersecurity and protection of critical infrastructure.
Therefore, it is a reinforcement of the existing context between the two countries, to face common challenges, especially in light of the Western sanctions imposed on the two countries. How does it reflect on the core files, especially the relationship with Washington?
First: The impact of the agreement on the relationship with the United States of America
The strategic agreement between Russia and Iran reflects a quantitative development that may turn qualitative in the patterns of challenge facing the United States. It embodies a remarkable development in what can be called the "axis of resistance to Western unilateralism," as the two countries seek to strengthen their strategic independence in the face of growing U.S. influence.
Why?
For Iran: This agreement represents an enhancement of its ability to bypass the pressures of US sanctions through Russian support on multiple levels, especially in the energy and transportation sectors. It provides Tehran with technical and economic support that enhances its resilience to U.S. attempts to isolate it. It also gives Iran a stronger negotiating card at the table for nuclear talks with the West.
What about Russia?
As for Russia, it is reaffirming its orientation towards building alliances that strengthen its ability to resist Western sanctions imposed after the start of its war in Ukraine. The agreement deepens its engagement with Middle Eastern forces opposed to American hegemony and redirects its policies away from traditional alignment with the West.
Military and intelligence cooperation between the two countries poses a direct threat to U.S. deterrence policies in the region, which may prompt Washington to reassess its security and economic strategies.
Second: The impact of the agreement on the files of the Middle East
Regional balance of power: The agreement provides support to Iran that enables it to reformulate its regional role, after the recent events and its loss in Syria. This presence may redraw the balance lines between Iran on the one hand, and the powers allied with Washington on the other, and it is in harmony with the improvement of Iranian-Saudi relations, and the existence of excellent relations between the latter and both Russia and China.
• Regional deterrence: Military cooperation between the two countries, especially with regard to air defense technologies and drones, poses a direct challenge to Israel, which sees this alliance as a threat to its military hegemony in the region. But Russia is managing a delicate balance in this area, which appeared in the events in Syria and between the lines of its events. What about Ukraine?
Third: The impact of the agreement on the Ukraine file
Iranian support for Russia: Military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, particularly in the field of drones, is an additional source of enhanced Russian capabilities in Ukraine. The war has demonstrated Iran's ability to play the role of a primary supplier of military technology to Russia, increasing the costs of the conflict for Ukraine and its Western allies.
Western escalation: This agreement may strengthen Russia's position and escalate the confrontation between the West on the one hand, and Russia and Iran on the other. Washington and its allies are expected to impose more sanctions on Tehran and Moscow in an effort to limit their military cooperation if Trump cannot sponsor a political settlement that stops the war. But there is also Caucasian security.
Fourth: Caucasus Security
Strategic shifts: The Russian-Iranian agreement is reshaping the security landscape of the Caucasus, especially in light of the ongoing tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Iran and Russia may be close allies in reshaping their relations there, as Armenia moves one step away from Moscow and closer to Washington, and with growing Turkish-Azerbaijani influence in the region.
Transport corridors: The agreement aims to develop strategic transport corridors that bypass Western constraints, placing Caucasus security at the center of the struggle over global trade and energy routes. Strengthening these corridors could undermine Western efforts to weaken Moscow and Tehran's influence in this vital region. What about the energy sector?
Fifth: Energy Sector
Reshaping the global market: Cooperation in the oil and gas sectors between Russia and Iran poses a major challenge to the global economic system led by Washington. Opening channels for technology and energy exchange between the two countries could reduce the impact of Western sanctions and give both countries the ability to direct energy resources towards Asian markets.
Gas competition: Enhanced cooperation between Moscow and Tehran could lead to escalating competition with Qatar and Saudi Arabia for LNG markets. In turn, it could lead to the creation of new coordination mechanisms to jointly manage energy exports, reshaping the rules of the global energy market.
Long-term impact: These effects may manifest itself in strengthening the ability of Russia and Iran to undermine Western efforts to dominate energy markets through regional and international alliances.
However, despite all this, and in contrast to the optimistic atmosphere between the two countries, many observers conclude that the two countries are shaking hands, while their officials have their eyes on Washington, and want an agreement with Trump and not a clash. The latter carries a thousand balls in his hands and launches an attack to change the world from his absolute control over the interior and his allies by force and threat, to expand later towards the opposing forces, all the way to China. It is an attack that could literally burn America and the world, and may threaten his life first and foremost.