Afrasianet - The return of Republican billionaire Donald Trump to the US presidency will not be just a new phase for Europeans, but may threaten the stability of the relationship that is the cornerstone of the continent's security. He has repeatedly vowed to withdraw from NATO , threatening to encourage Russia to do "whatever it wants" to countries that do not meet its financial obligations when he said, "I will not protect you."
For decades, NATO has been the foundation of Europe's security. However, the partnership with the United States could reach a crossroads, with Trump returning to the White House, as there is a real risk for Europeans of declining American support for Ukraine, especially in the midst of its war with Russia.
If the United States halts its military aid to Kiev, the consequences will be dire, not only for the war in Ukraine, but also for Europe's defenses against what it calls external threats, led by Russia, which seeks revenge, as they see it.
Berlin in trouble
Of course, Berlin did not lose sight of Donald Trump's first term (January 20, 2017 – January 20, 2021), when he threatened to withdraw thousands of American troops from Germany after it "failed to meet the goal set by NATO in terms of defense spending," telling Germans "We don't want to be idiots anymore."
Now, Germany finds itself facing a new term for President Trump, at a time when it was not fully prepared to win the presidential race, as the country is going through a difficult period, facing increasing economic challenges and the disintegration of the ruling coalition after the dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz's announcement of a vote of confidence in mid-January, which could lead to early elections in March.
In the context, the German newspaper Deutsche Welle described Trump's return as a "nightmare", especially for Berlin, which bet on the victory of his Democratic rival Kamala Harris.
In his criticism of German policy, Henning Hoff, of the German Association for Foreign Relations, points out that Berlin neglected to build communication relations with the Republican camp, focusing on the special relationship that Chancellor Scholz forged with outgoing US President Joe Biden, and argued that this bias has cost Germany dearly, as it is time to "pay the price" for ignoring any communication with the Trump camp.
With Trump's victory, his economic vision may pose a direct threat to German industries, as he announced during his campaign his intention to impose tariffs of 60% on Chinese imports and 20% on imports from other countries. These policies, if implemented, will inevitably lead to higher prices of German products in the United States, with a significant impact on industries such as automobiles and pharmaceuticals, posing a major challenge to exports from Germany, one of the most important trading partners of the United States.
Not "France de Gaulle"
As for France, its president, Emmanuel Macron, does not carry a Gaullist legacy (refusing to submit to the American will), but he believes that Europe must take a strong position to guarantee its continental security and the need for its independence from dependence on American protection.
In an attempt to show a united front over Trump's return, European leaders met in the Hungarian capital Budapest weeks ago, but the scene appeared incomplete with Berlin absent and its seat vacant as a result of the country's deepening government crisis.
Macron returned to his warnings during the meeting, revealing his growing concern about Trump's return to the White House. "Will we continue to be spectators to history written by others? Putin's wars, the U.S. elections, China's choices, or do we want to write this history ourselves?" The French president pointed to real challenges to European security, demonstrated by the absence of German Chancellor Scholz from the session at a moment when Europe is discussing its future.
Because of the rise of "authoritarian" powers and their arms race on the border with Europe, as Macron described them, the French president called in 2018 not to rely on the United States alone in the face of threats, calling for the establishment of a unified European army to defend himself.
During Trump's first term, the rift between him and Macron was clear, as they exchanged criticisms, most notably Trump's denunciation of what he described as Macron's "stupidity" and threatening to impose a tax on French wine, in response to the tax imposed by France on major American technology companies.
Time is running out
Europe's laxity in relying on the United States for its security warned Foreign Affairs in an analytical article, noting that the continent desperately needed to invest time in strengthening its own defenses. Russia's war in Ukraine was a golden opportunity to begin a decisive shift in building an independent European security force, but Europe chose to rely on American leadership.
European leaders can no longer blame Washington, but must take responsibility for their own security future before it's too late.
Trump has repeatedly vowed to end the war in Ukraine, calling it a "complicated puzzle." He went so far as to assert that he could end the conflict "within 24 hours," accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of refusing to strike a deal with Moscow and being "the best seller in the world," referring to the money he was receiving in support of President Joe Biden's administration.
Europe's Concerns
Europe finds itself mired in misgivings, fearing that it may be the main party that will have to manage a major conflict at its gates for the first time since World War II if Trump takes measures that would reduce U.S. support for Ukraine.
It also fears that the president-elect will seek an agreement with Russian President Putin to stop the fighting, believes that any agreement resulting from such negotiations will be unlikely to include adequate protection for Ukraine, and therefore for Europe against any future Russian threats, and considers that Washington's response to Moscow's war goals will damage the credibility of NATO and destabilize European security.
Europe fears the risk of getting involved in an escalating trade conflict between the United States and China, as it is likely to come under intense pressure from Washington to reduce its economic relations with Beijing, as Trump described the European Union during his election campaign as a "small China" that exploits his American ally by accumulating trade surpluses in his favor.
Pressure on Ukraine
Days ago, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal reports suggested that Ukraine is facing increasing pressure from its allies to discuss peace talks with Putin, even at the cost of giving Russia some Ukrainian territory.
For his part, Norbert Röttgen, a member of the German parliament (Bundestag), believes that the challenge now for Europe is to accelerate the enhancement of its defense capabilities, but this requires effective political leadership, which is absent at the moment, explaining - in an article in the newspaper Foreign Affairs - that Germany is facing a political crisis with the collapse of the coalition government, which means that the coming months will be busy with elections, and the formation of a new government.
He also believes that French President Macron's loss of the parliamentary majority during the last elections has left him in a weak political position.
Sebastien Miyar of the French Jacques Delors Institute believes that "the knife is really on the neck of Europeans... The outcome of the U.S. election makes the EU alert."
Commitments with Ukraine and sanctions for Russia
Europe has provided significant financial and military support to Ukraine, but faces growing fears of "Russian retaliation" that could put it to a tough test, especially if it finds itself without U.S. support.
According to data released by the European Union, the total support provided to Ukraine until October 2024 amounted to about 122 billion euros, including military, financial, humanitarian and emergency aid, in addition to EU funding to help Ukrainian refugees within the Union.
In addition to this support, Europe has sought to obstruct Moscow and weaken its vital sectors by imposing sanctions on the Russian government and its financial, trade, defense, technology, and media sectors since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022, raising its concern that it will become in a retaliatory confrontation that could harm its interests.
The most prominent sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russia:
• Freezing the assets of more than 2,300 Russian individuals and entities and banning travel on some individuals.
• Prohibition of transactions with Russian state-owned military and industrial enterprises.
• Separate 10 of Russia's most prominent financial institutions, including Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, from the global SWIFT system.
• Expand and tighten control over exports of dual-use goods and technologies (civil and military) to Russia.
• Banning specific exports in the aviation, maritime, and technology sectors, such as semiconductors, drone engines, and luxury goods.
• Ban imports of steel, alcoholic beverages, seafood, gold, diamonds, and other products.
• Closure of European airspace, seaports and roads to Russian operators.
• Suspension of broadcasting activities of 18 Russian media outlets.
• Banning most imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products (covering about 90% of Russian oil imports), with the exception of pipelined crude oil.
• European companies are prohibited from providing oil transport services, with the exception of Russian oil sold to non-European countries.
• These sanctions show how keen the European Union is to step up economic and political pressure against Russia, as it seeks to support Ukraine and protect European stability from the dangerous repercussions of the conflict, its leaders said.
Europe finds itself deeply anxious about the future of its relations with Washington under Trump. Paul Taylor, a columnist for the Guardian, points out that this win is bad news for Europe, but the bigger question remains: "How bad can things go?".
Trump's presidency is expected to lead to uncertainty about the future of NATO, and although Congress has passed a law that makes it difficult for the United States to withdraw from the alliance, nothing can prevent Trump from implementing what he has repeatedly promised, especially since he has threatened to carry the "Russian stick" over the heads of countries that do not fulfill their financial pledges.