Afrasianet - Today, Turkey stands on the cusp of crucial elections that will be among the most important elections for the Turkish people because of their great symbolic value, as they will take place at the beginning of the bicentenary of the Turkish Republic, and will determine the leader who will move Turkey into the next century.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's choice of May 14 as the date for holding the next elections did not come out of nowhere. Rather, it was the day when the Democratic Party led by Adnan Menderes ended by popular vote in 1950 the one-party period that had dominated the Turkish Republic since its founding in 1923.
These elections will be equally important for many regional and international files in which Turkey has played an active role over the past years.
The Russian war on Ukraine once again demonstrated the importance of Turkey's geopolitical position, especially to NATO, so it is not surprising that we see the Europeans, Russians, Ukrainians and Americans closely watching the results of this election and its future repercussions on many sensitive files in which Turkey is involved.
This reflects the interest of prominent American and Western newspapers, which hastened to create spaces and angles dedicated to analyzes of the upcoming elections.
The common denominator among most of these analyzes is the attack on the presidential system in Turkey - which the Turkish opposition also adopts - the erosion of the role of institutions, and criticism of President Erdogan's policies towards The West described him as a "dictator" and accused him of transforming Turkey into an Islamic and tyrannical state, in addition to the absence of freedom of the press and a free civil society in the country.
The aim of this seems to be to influence the choices of the Turkish voter, provide support for the opposition, and promote a perception among Western peoples and officials that Turkey without Erdogan will be better for the west. At the beginning of this year, the American Bloomberg Network published an article by the famous journalist, Bobby Ghosh, in which he indicated that the outcome of the Turkish elections will shape the geopolitical and economic calculations in Washington and Moscow, as well as in the capitals of Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa.
"Western leaders will be happy to see Erdogan's back," Ghosh added, referring to his loss in the upcoming elections, adding that Erdogan has undermined NATO's security by acquiring missile defense systems from Russia.
The United States and Europe will be in a better position without Erdogan's confusing influence in world affairs, especially With the intensification of the confrontation with Vladimir Putin.
Confirmed information indicates that the Americans, since last February, have been conducting intensive contacts with opposition candidates, and that these contacts aim to find an outlet for American policy in the path of the winner, if he is from the opposition.
Despite the differences between the two countries regarding a number of files, Turkey has proven that it cannot be overlooked from the American accounts.
The relationship between the United States and Turkey was complex, characterized by periods of cooperation and tension with a group of economic, political and security issues that complicate their bilateral relations.
The upcoming Turkish elections shed light on the future of relations between the two countries once again, as many are wondering about the American calculations in these elections.
We should not forget here that relations with NATO are also tense, especially after Turkey refused to agree to Sweden's accession to the alliance unless it meets its conditions, the most important of which is stopping For sheltering members of the opposition and of the Kurdish parties that Turkey classifies as terrorist organizations, which Sweden did not abide by.
These tensions have led many American policymakers to openly criticize Erdoğan's policies, and some have called on the United States to cut aid to Turkey or take other punitive measures. However, the United States refrained from taking harsh punitive measures against
Turkey, with the exception of some sanctions against a number of Turkish officials and the suspension of Turkey's participation in the F-35 fighter jet program.
This is due to several reasons, the most important of which are: First, Turkey is still an important strategic ally. For the United States, especially given its geopolitical position, secondly, the United States has been reluctant to take harsh measures against Turkey, because it fears that such actions will prompt the Turkish government to strengthen its relations with Russia or other hostile powers.
Despite these concerns, the United States did not hesitate to use its influence to try to shape events in Turkey. For example, in the run-up to the 2018 elections, the United States expressed support for opposition parties.
These efforts were largely unsuccessful, as Erdogan and his allies managed to Despite achieving a decisive victory in the elections, however, some American policymakers believe that the United States should continue to press even if it means taking more confrontational positions toward the Turkish government.
Washington is making tremendous efforts to deprive one of Russia's main partners, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, from power, as the United States is completely dissatisfied with Ankara's policy, whether in terms of interaction with Moscow or on a number of other issues.
A famous Turkish newspaper published information on the Internet about a "dirty plan" that the United States intends to implement in Turkey.
It was called the plan to bring Zelensky to power in this country, which means searching for someone who plays Zelensky's role to be America's ally in Turkey. According to the newspaper; The United States plans to drag Russia and Turkey into the conflict in Syria, the Black Sea and Central Asia, especially after Russia turned in its war in Ukraine to guerrilla warfare tactics that prolong the war in a way that contradicts the interests of the United States.
The newspaper stated that if the Ukrainian spring war that Washington is preparing fails, America will create crises for Russia in more than one place.
At the head of these places is Turkey, given its geographical location and the intersection of interests with Moscow in a number of regions, but the only obstacle in front of it is the current Turkish president; Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The newspaper pointed out that at the beginning of Erdogan's rule - twenty years ago - the United States had no problems with it.
The current Turkish president - at the time - pursued a foreign policy directed towards Europe and America, calling for rapprochement with NATO and Europe's partners, while the West praised him after he managed to get Turkey out of its economic crisis.
And the newspaper continued, saying that Türkiye began to move towards the east. Starting in 2014 when Erdogan moved from the premiership to the presidency, or starting in 2016, the year of the failed coup and the ensuing crisis of Washington's refusal to hand over Fethullah Gulen, one of Ankara's accuses of plotting the coup, to Turkish investigators; Türkiye began to pursue a foreign policy more independent from the West.
The newspaper quoted Vladimir Avatkov, professor of political science and head of the Department of the Near East and Post-Soviet Union at the Inion Ras Center, as saying: “This is not surprising. Either completely subject to American interests, or an area of chaos and part of the arc of instability.
At the same time, relations with Russia became the most important component of Turkey's new sovereign policy; Thanks to Moscow, Turkey was able to get out of the camp of the defeated in Syria, and was able to diversify its Western carriers, in addition to achieving energy, and even military supremacy to some extent.
The Americans did not like this rapprochement; where they tried to get rid of Erdogan by supporting the 2016 coup; There were many indications that the American intelligence services (or rather the CIA) were behind the failed coup attempt in Turkey, but the coup failed and Erdogan managed to elude the conspirators, after which he carried out a large-scale purge of disloyal elements from the security and press circles. bureaucracy and others.
It seems that Washington is now preparing for another attempt, for several reasons.
The first is that at the present time America’s need for Turkey, which is loyal to it, has increased, due to the problems on the Ukrainian front.
The upcoming presidential elections in Turkey in the coming weeks will give the West a unique opportunity to remove Erdogan by legal electoral means. Fortunately, America and the West have someone to rely on in this regard.
"Turkey has been considered part of the Western world throughout its modern history. Since 1952, it became a member of NATO, and then became a candidate for membership in the European Union. Accordingly, the Turkish elites - at least those in the capital (i.e. in both Ankara and Istanbul) ) — it was very Western.”
And because of the systematic break with the West that Erdogan pursued; America worked through pressure groups and political organizations.
Therefore, it is no secret that the Republican People's Party (the largest opposition force and Erdogan's main rival in the upcoming elections) works closely with the West, and conducts consultations and meetings with it, according to it. So Washington is betting on the Republican People's Party and its leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in the upcoming elections.
The Americans are actively building contacts with him, the delegation accompanying Mr. Kilicdaroglu is actively visiting Washington, and the Americans are doing everything they can to strengthen the Turkish opposition. Perhaps the Americans will not be a good choice; Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has been at the helm of the Republicans for a long time and has lost all kinds of elections to Erdoğan, so it is not surprising that the image of the eternal loser is stuck behind him.
There were proposals to nominate other leaders for the role of the opposition candidate for the presidency of Türkiye; For example, the leader of the "Good Party" Meral Aksener, as well as the mayor of Istanbul belonging to the Republican People's Party, Ekrem Imamoglu, but it turned out - in the end - that Meral Aksener was not influential enough for the West, and Imamoglu was overthrown by the Turkish authorities themselves.
Aksener comes from a nationalist background, and although the party she leads adheres to a policy that mixes support for the West and nationalism, it is often biased towards the latter. While the Republican People's Party is more pro-Western and more influential than the good party.
The upcoming Turkish presidential elections are not just a choice between two parties, two presidents, or two economic systems; But in fact, it is a confrontation between two different worlds; There are forces that focus on national interests and values, led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ally, Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party.
On the other hand, there are forces that focus on heading towards NATO and the United States and integration into the European Union, which is the opposition coalition led by the United States behind the scenes. It is officially headed by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu