Turkey and its investments in the Caucasus as a fatal and important geography.

The art of making a lie in Ukraine according to the Syrian scenario.

Richard Moore is the director of MMI I-Sex and the White Helmets - in Kyiv.

 Ukrainian government in exile British foreign intelligence engineering.

Afrasyanet - Written by: Lawyer Muhammad Ahmad Al-Rousan - It is not in the interest of the Russian Federation to erupt a war in the regions of the South Caucasus or maintain a state of instability there, due to the effects of the Ukrainian crisis, and the use of Turkey as an outpost for NATO and the bulk of the brotherhood alliance of thieves to demonize Moscow, in the veins of that deadly and important geography And that the focus of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict (Karabakh region), for example, besides the current necessary objective Russian corrective military operation inside Ukraine, which is teeming with neo-Nazis and radicals of Ukrainian nationalists, and is being globalized by America, Britain and Israel.

The Anglo-Saxon responses to the Russian Federation and its objective and necessary entry into the depth of the geography of Ukraine recently, and it still threatens to increase tension on the lines of American-Russian Western relations, in a way that threatens further internationalization and activation of the effects of global and international polarization, further militarization of its threads and cases of excessive military diarrhea, and good The example of the Ukrainian issue with its ramifications and consequences - it is the curse of Kosovo, guys... You will remember:Kosov And what else.

There is no doubt that the geostrategic importance variable, which is based on considerations of the importance of place in conflicts, so that geographers look at the world, as it consists of continents, seas and oceans, and politicians look at the world, as it consists of countries, blocs and organizations, and so the more jurisdictions multiplied, in turn the vision of the world In this regard, we say: Conflict and conflict experts view the world as consisting of calm, docile regions, and turbulent hot regions that are difficult to dominate. All global media, including digital and social media, and the world's read and audio newspapers tried to present a map of the world, based on considerations of areas of conflict and calm, and we will try differently to engage in this part:according to the variable of geopolitical importance, which is based on considerations of calibrating the weight of the total force, and for the variable of importance Geostrategic which is based on considerations of the importance of place in conflicts.

The Caucasus region consists of two sub-regions:North Caucasus: It is called the Trans-Caucasus region, and it includes the republics of the Russian Federation: Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, Kabardino, Bulgaria, Adygea, and Circassia.

The South Caucasus: It includes three countries: Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, in addition to the territory of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Tally located within the Georgian territories, in addition to the Nagorno-Karabakh region located in Azerbaijan, and the Takhchivan region located in Armenia.

The North Caucasus region is characterized by the presence of armed Sunni Islamic movements that demand secession from Russia and the formation of independent states such as the countries of Central Asia and the Baltic region, and the South Caucasus region that separated from the Soviet Union.

Its aiming and aspiring interventions are to strengthen its local allies as a proxy double agent, allowing the use of this region in the geo-strategic scheme aimed at besieging Russia, after the military entry into the veins of most of the Ukrainian geography.

In the North Caucasus: The Russian authorities are trying to impose their strong control over the regions of the North Caucasus using various means, including luring the regions of the North Caucasus with more new advantages, whether by supporting development or giving them greater regional autonomy.

In addition, Moscow has resorted to consolidating and strengthening its capabilities. Deploying more Russian military divisions in the North Caucasus regions.

In the Southern Caucasus: a diplomatic-security conflict is taking place between Moscow and Washington over control of regional arrangements, and in this direction we note that Turkey plays the main role aimed at controlling regional interactions in the South Caucasus, a role that Russia is trying to influence, leading to Washington not obtaining advantages Through Turkey as its outpost in that region, Washington is trying to influence it by not allowing Moscow to penetrate Turkey, and Ankara is also trying to use it as a means to impose its conditions on Moscow and Washington, allowing Ankara to impose its regional influence on the entire Caucasus.

In addition, the repercussions of the contagion of the Moscow-Washington conflict have spread over the background of the Georgian-Russian war in 2008, as well as the contagion of the Moscow-NATO conflict against the background of the current Russian-Ukrainian war 2022 CE, in addition to the backgrounds of igniting wars and heating up conflict foci from time to time in geographical veins The Southern Caucasus (Karabagh is a model), so that the repercussions of this shifted towards the north-east, specifically to the following areas:

The Black Sea region: which has become an arena for battleship diplomacy between the Russian navy and the American navy and others, especially after the annexation of Crimea to the Russian Federation, as well as due to the contagion of the Moscow-NATO conflict against the background of the current Russian-Ukrainian war 2022 AD, and information says that the conflict has It has gone beyond the Black Sea and Crimea, and the depth of the Ukrainian political arena and its ruling cartels of neo-Nazis and fascists, to the eastern border of NATO and all the arenas of Europe, which makes the security structures of the old continent in a blow to the wind, and because of the action, effects and interactions of the current Ukrainian crisis. Question: Will Ukraine’s future orientations, regardless of the results of the current necessary and legitimate Russian tsarist military operation, force it to be non-hostile towards Russia – Ukraine’s neutrality, allowing it to pass Russian oil and gas pipelines and avoiding Moscow’s threats, or to the side of the United States of America, allowing it to Getting aid and aid?

This, and the information says that the European Union countries are trying to play a double game regarding the Ukrainian file, as they do not oppose Ukraine on the side of the United States on the declared side, but on the unspoken side they prefer Washington not to control Ukraine, because this will allow Washington to control Russian oil supplies Coming through Ukraine to the European Union countries, which are trying to advance European independence and get rid of the dependence imposed on it by Washington through transatlantic relations.

Eastern Europe: The conflict between Washington and Moscow revolves around the file of the project to deploy the American missile defense network in the republics of Poland and the Czech Republic, and the information says that Russia is seeking to abort the effectiveness of this project through a project represented in the deployment of Russian missile defense batteries in Belarus and eastern Ukraine regions loyal to Moscow - This is what was done and is now being done by the Russian entry into Ukrainian geography.

Baltic region: Despite the growth of ties and close relations between the three Baltic countries (Estonia - Latvia - Lithuania), Russia is still able to impose its geopolitical influence on these three countries: Securing oil and gas supplies that you will not be able to obtain, neither from Europe nor from America.

Activating Russian economic influence. - The use of minorities and pro-Russian groups within these countries.

Threatening the security of these countries in terms of enhancing their awareness that they will be within the direct range of the Russian embargo if they are involved with Moscow’s opponents.

Analyzes say that public opinion in the three Baltic countries has become more aware of the importance of maintaining the security of the region, by strengthening balanced relations with everyone, so that they continue to cooperate with Washington and the countries of the European Union, while not allowing them to use this cooperation against Russia.

Central Asian region: The information says that the Central Asian countries have become more favorable to the option of cooperation with Russia, except for the State of Turkmenistan, which is now trying to do more, dangerous maneuvers.

In this regard, the information says, that Turkmenistan is currently trying to give American oil companies more facilities. And preferential advantages Experts say that if these advantages were obtained by these companies, this would affect the relations of the Central Asian countries with Russia, because Turkmenistan is the gateway to Central Asia on the Caspian Sea.

It is possible that a Russian-American confrontation will occur, neither in the South Caucasus, nor in the North Caucasus, but there is consensus about the possibilities of the following: The Ukrainian-Ukrainian conflict between the allies of Russia and the allies of Washington, which happened and happened silently in the past, and is now taking place openly with a Russian military presence in Ukraine and in a deep way - a Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Turkmen-Turkoman conflict between Russia's allies and Washington's allies. US-Turkish differences over the dimensions of the Turkish regional role, and the extensions of the US secret government in the joints of the Turkish state, are clear. Georgian-Georgian differences, about the future directions of the Georgian state in the coming period.

Armenia-Azerbaijan disputes over the regions of Nagorno-Karabakh and Takhchivan The confrontations took place in the recent past, violently, but did not amount to a relentless war, shaking most of the South Caucasus.

Against this possible background, Washington's role may diminish in the region, and by encouraging proxy wars from it through neo-Nazis and fascism

- Ukraine is a model, where Washington now relies on military-security interventions, just as the Joseph Biden administration on the other hand depends on economic interventions.

– Finance, but it is clear that any US administration will not be able to carry out economic-financial interventions, because the current US financial crisis due to the Corona pandemic, will negatively affect any democratic or republican administration in the future in the upcoming elections, in providing aid and financial assistance to America’s allies in Caucasus, whether northern or southern, for the purposes of striking and weakening the Russian Federation.

Thought-provoking question: Will matters along the Azerbaijani-Armenian confrontation lines on Vladimir Putin's back garden (Karabakh), rich in energy resources and energy pipelines in the veins of its geography, develop into a regional and international conflict exacerbated by the Ukrainian crisis and the current Russian-Ukrainian war, or will it remain under control?

There is no doubt that Azerbaijan and Armenia have gained new military capabilities, especially with regard to drones, indirect fire, intelligence and surveillance, and others, along with the occurrence of major changes in the field of energy policies in the South Caucasus, with the Azerbaijani and Armenian governments exposed to pressures from economic problems and their need to distract their peoples, With the rise in popularity of nationalist and populist tendencies in Azerbaijan and Armenia, which prompted Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan to adopt more escalatory positions in the past during their war, Moscow appears to be looking for an opportunity to weaken Pashinyan's government, which is considered less friendly with Moscow compared to Moscow.

The Armenian administrations and their predecessors, all of this would control the decision of the future direction of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, into a regional and international conflict exacerbated by the Russian-Ukrainian war, or a struggle under control for most of the players?

In the language of the field, we find that the explosive drones, which are a new element on the battlefield, target and hunt very valuable targets, and are used by both sides of the conflict, and at the level of ballistic missiles, no one uses them until now, neither from Azerbaijan nor Armenia, and they have not been used in the past.

Note that Armenia possesses Russian Iskander ballistic missiles (with a range of 280 km), as for Azerbaijan's arsenal, it includes Israeli Laura missiles with a range of 300 km.

Based on the political facts, the two parties to the conflict (Azerbaijan and Armenia) cannot use their ballistic missiles without the consent of Russia, and the step of deploying warplanes and ballistic missiles is a prelude to the outbreak of a conventional war.

Azerbaijan uses Turkish “TB2” and “Kargu-2” explosive drones, which would change the nature of the clashes in the Caucasus, and it seems that Armenia received heavy blows from the drone attacks in the last war, with the heat of the information war and the role of social media: the Azerbaijanis are trying They demonstrated their power by posting clips of the rallies on social media in the latest war with Armenia, while Armenian propaganda mainly focused on misleading reports, with the aim of wooing Russian and Western support.

The Caucasus region is Russia's back garden, and Moscow wants to prevent NATO from exploiting a regional conflict to enter it, and therefore, Russia shows an interest in the clashes not reaching the level of a conventional military confrontation, in any future war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, due to the Anglo-Saxon fraternity alliance against Russia, especially after the consequences of the current Russo-Ukrainian war. Turkey and Iran are also in the grip of economic crises and want to avoid the repercussions of a regional war, including security costs, migration, and the postponement of regional political and trade initiatives.

Turkey is also keen to ensure the continuity of energy supplies from the Caspian Sea basin, and Turkey warns of the impact of its relationship with Russia in Syria and Libya. The reality that calls from it to keep the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict at the level of light battles of distraction and at later stages and to ignite it again.

Winter weather conditions and rugged terrain will limit the scope of military operations in any future conflict, and the economic conditions in Azerbaijan and Armenia will prevent them from engaging in a conventional military confrontation. But the possibility of a long and sometimes exacerbated war of attrition, interspersed with rounds of low-intensity conflict and proxy war, and a war of marches and information, cannot be ruled out, especially since the Anglo-Saxons and through Turkey may work to inflame the conflict, any conflict in all of the Caucasus, and ignite it again between Baku and Armenia, to besiege Russia, And striking its national security structures, and through the art of making a lie according to what happened in Syria (the Syrian scenario) inside Ukraine through Ukrainian nationalists, and accusing the Russian army of committing massacres against civilians through media fabrications through American intelligence and British foreign intelligence, with its new administration led by Richard Moore, According to the information: He visited Ukraine last week with a whole team of British intelligence, to carry out fake flag operations in the style and method of the White Helmets in Syria, and he had the idea of engineering a Ukrainian government in exile, and in response to the current Russian-Ukrainian war, to demonizing the Russian Federation and its President Vladimir Putin And his rule cartels, the intelligence community and the Russian intelligence services.

Member of the Political Bureau of the Jordanian Popular Movement