Afrasianet - Fahim Al, Sourani - The final communiqué issued by the seventh meeting of the so-called "Moscow Formula" of consultations on Afghanistan on Tuesday stressed the importance of developing political, trade and economic cooperation between Kabul, the countries of the region and the international community, and the effective integration of this country into regional economic systems.
The meeting's statement, which was held in the capital Moscow and attended by special representatives and senior officials from Russia, Afghanistan, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, stressed support for Afghanistan's emergence as an independent and peaceful state, free of terrorism and drugs, and readiness to help it strengthen regional security.
The "Moscow Formula" also stressed the need to provide international humanitarian aid to Kabul and not politicize it, and the importance of developing trade and economic exchanges and investment cooperation with it.
Absurd idea
The meeting was an occasion to launch a range of positions on developments in Afghanistan, notably US President Donald Trump's announcement of his country's desire to regain control of Bagram Air Base and his warning that Kabul could face "serious consequences" if it refuses.
The Russian president's special representative for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, said his country condemns the deployment of military bases in the country, and that there are no plans to do so. Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi assured his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov that Kabul will not allow the deployment of any foreign bases on its territory, and that this includes the Bagram base, he said.
Earlier, the Taliban stressed that they would not extradite Bagram to the United States, despite the US president's threats. Its spokesman , Zabihullah Mujahid, stressed that this base "is no different from any other part of Afghan territory, and that the Taliban will not agree to hand over any inch of its territory."
The current consultative meeting comes amid Russia's bet to intensify relations with the Taliban government and push it further in all fields. But Trump's threats to Kabul if it rejects the return of US troops to the Bagram base occupied the bulk of Russian observers' readings and analyses.
According to Central Asian expert Sergei Kurtov, it is unlikely that the United States will invade Afghanistan because of this base. He said the idea was "absurd" because in the eight months since Trump returned to the White House, "the world has become accustomed to his exaggerated ideas."
Kortov adds that the US president formulated his demand that Afghanistan should be "restored to those who built it, forgetting that it was Soviet experts who did it in the 1950s, during the reign of King Mohammad Zahir Shah."
Nightmare
Even if a miracle happens and the Taliban agree to hand over its main air base to the Americans, it will be a nightmare for the Pentagon in terms of costs, logistics, security and the prevention of possible "terrorist" attacks.
Citing estimates by military experts that at least 10,000 troops are needed to fully operate and protect the facility, he asked, "How can they be transported, equipped, and rotated? Will they negotiate with Russia again over the use of the Ulyanovsk jump airfield, as they did in 2001 when former US President George W. Bush launched the war on the Taliban?".
According to him, it is impossible to repeat this because relations between Moscow and Washington were very different then.
For his part, international affairs analyst Sergei Persanov said, "If we believe the US media reports that Washington was secretly negotiating with the Taliban about the possibility of using Bagram, then after Trump's warning the chances of success of the dialogue are slim, because politicians cannot lose face, give up or show weakness when they are under pressure and public threats."
He explains that once "the speaker diplomacy begins, and once they start to bend your arm publicly, a compromise is just as impossible as it was when Trump asked India to stop buying Russian oil, but that story didn't seem to teach him much."
If the US president's words are taken literally and the Taliban threaten him with "bad things", Persanov asks, "How will he react if they reject his offer?
He argues that it is not possible to capture the Bagram base by force and then keep it in a hostile environment, effectively recreating the war in Afghanistan that former President Joe Biden ended.
This is especially true in the absence of logistical supply routes, neither the northern route through Russia and the Central Asian republics, nor the southern route through Pakistan, given that today, unlike in 2011, Islamabad is "under Beijing's influence," according to analyst Persanov.
American absence
The "Moscow Formula for Consultations on Afghanistan" was established following trilateral consultations between Russia, China, and Pakistan in December 2016 with the aim of advancing the national reconciliation process in Kabul and facilitating a speedy peace in the country.
In February 2017, the Six-Party Consultations on Afghanistan were held in Moscow, involving Moscow, Kabul, Islamabad, Beijing, Tehran, and New Delhi.
In April of the same year, the first meeting of the formula was held in the capital Moscow and was attended by deputy ministers and special representatives from 11 countries, including Russia, Afghanistan, India, Iran, China, Pakistan, and five Central Asian republics.
The United States was invited to attend the first three meetings of the consultations, but only participated in the second meeting in November 2018 as an observer.
Why do Russian experts rule out the return of U.S. troops to Afghanistan?
Suddenly and unexpectedly, the file of re-establishing the US presence at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan has returned to circulation, four years after the US withdrawal from the country and leaving the base in the hands of the Taliban.
US President Donald Trump floated the idea during a press conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the end of his official visit to the United Kingdom, linking it to what he described as the need for the United States to confront its main rival China.
Trump later reiterated his position, saying that his country was currently negotiating with Afghanistan and "wants to restore al-Qaeda immediately," but threatened "serious consequences" for Kabul if it refused to hand over al-Qaeda to the United States, in apparent disregard of the Afghan Foreign Ministry's statement, which confirmed the impossibility of a U.S. military presence in the country.
Speaking about the base's location, the US president noted that it is an hour's drive from areas where China is developing nuclear weapons.
The longest military engagement
Trump's remarks come more than four years after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, which ended the longest military engagement the United States has fought.
Bagram Air Base, about 50 kilometers north of the capital, Kabul, was the headquarters of U.S. forces between 2011 and 2021, housing up to 10,000 U.S. troops, as well as German military units.
After the U.S. withdrawal in the summer of 2021, al-Qaeda fell under the control of the Taliban and became a symbol of its power.
Trump's remarks are highly sensitive to a number of countries active in the region, as Afghanistan is located at a strategic intersection of both Russian and Sino-Iranian interests.
There has been no official comment from Russia on the U.S. remarks, but Russian experts believe that the U.S. return to Afghanistan could exacerbate tensions in the region and relations between Washington, Kabul and other international and regional capitals.
Insulated pocket
Sergei Kurtov, an expert on Central Asian affairs, believes that the Taliban have not accepted the US threats and will not agree to the return of the American presence in the country, because this will ultimately threaten the movement's presence in power, harm its popularity, and put it back in the face of the dangers of a renewed civil war.
According to Kortov, any U.S. presence in Russia's strategic space is undoubtedly a danger to Russian interests, as well as Chinese interests, but he stresses that the Kremlin does not take U.S. threats to Afghanistan seriously because they are nearly impossible to implement.
Washington has no actual plans to control the air base militarily, because controlling and maintaining it requires tens of thousands of troops, and moreover, the United States will have to carry out costly repairs to the base and solve the base-related logistical problems, which will become an "isolated pocket" for the United States in Afghanistan.
"Also, after the supposed control of al-Qaeda, the United States will have to make a tremendous effort to clear and preserve its vast perimeter to prevent it from being used to bomb U.S. forces, including by Islamic State andal-Qaeda, not to mention the risk of Iranian missile attacks," he said.
At the same time, the spokesman does not rule out that Washington will resort to attempts to destabilize Afghanistan by transferring foreign fighters to the country, pointing to intelligence information confirming the presence of about 20 armed organizations in Afghanistan, with a total strength of more than 23,000 fighters
The Carrot and the Stick
Meanwhile, Pavel Koshkin, a researcher at the Institute of U.S.-Canada Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the U.S. desire to return to Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan is an attempt to pressure, primarily China and Iran.
According to him, the Taliban will respond negatively to this, which could lead to an escalation of the situation in the region, because the supposed return of the American presence to the region, which former US President Joe Biden has left "shamefully," allows Trump to show America's power and power, but in reality contradicts his isolationist thesis that he put forward during his election campaign.
A U.S. return to Afghanistan "if it happens" could make little difference and could only allow the U.S. military to secure additional funding for foreign campaigns, such as against Iran, Koshkin said.
But at the same time, they put U.S. forces at risk of being targeted by many movements inside the country, and these attacks are likely to be supported by many countries that do not welcome a U.S. presence close to their borders and threaten their interests.