Afrasianet - Dr. Mohamed Halasa - According to Netanyahu, Israel cannot accept today what it accepted three weeks ago, and it is likely that Netanyahu is betting that he can, at worst, improve the terms of the deal by imposing new conditions on Hamas.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains vague about the expected Israeli response to the plan presented by the mediators for a partial deal to release Israeli prisoners, despite Hamas's announcement of its approval of the latest version of the agreement, which according to sources, is similar to the version approved by Israel about three weeks ago.
Although Netanyahu has not made a firm decision to reject the partial deal, he now believes that the circumstances have completely changed in Israel's favor, and that the idea of a partial deal is behind him, especially after he made loud and public promises to his extremist partners, Ben-Gvir and Somterich, that he will continue this war, and will not return to the partial deals that "prevent the achievement of a decisive deal against Hamas."
Netanyahu must understand well the implications of his extremist partners' threat to withdraw from the government and dismantle the coalition if he returns to partial deals, because according to extremist Settlement Minister Orit Struck of the Smotrich party, it makes no sense to "stay in a right-wing government that implements a left-wing agenda."
Netanyahu is also promoting, along with many, that "Hamas is under intense pressure," and that "the threat to occupy the Gaza Strip succeeded in pushing it to agree to what it rejected last July, especially when it realized that Netanyahu is serious about his plans to occupy the Strip."
More importantly, a large part of the coalition ministers saw in US President Trump's tweet, in which he called for "play and victory" and that "Hamas will not hand over Israeli prisoners unless it is defeated," as an explicit call to reject the partial deal and continue the war until Hamas is defeated.
Netanyahu further claims that the Cabinet's decision to take control of Gaza City, and Israel's ability to largely neutralize the impact of the campaign to starve the Strip by bringing in "large" amounts of aid by air and land, contributed to softening Hamas's position.
Therefore, according to Netanyahu, Israel cannot accept today what it accepted three weeks ago, and it is likely that Netanyahu is betting that he can, at worst, improve the terms of the deal for Israel by placing new conditions on Hamas and, at best, for him, adhering to the Israeli Cabinet's decision to implement the comprehensive deal with Hamas's prior approval of the package of declared Israeli principles to enter into arrangements to end the war on the Gaza Strip.
Netanyahu fears that circumstances will change if Israel agrees to a partial agreement today, as Hamas may draw support and encouragement from the UN debate next September, as dozens of balanced countries are supposed to recognize a Palestinian state.
President Trump may change his position, driven by his impatience, and demand an immediate end to the war. The military operation in Gaza could be complicated and the Israeli army would incur a heavy price that would reflect negatively on the situation of the Netanyahu government.
It is therefore better for Netanyahu not to venture into a partial agreement and a temporary ceasefire, but to conclude a comprehensive agreement now, in which an agreement is reached on the release of all prisoners in stages and on the principles of a permanent settlement in the Gaza Strip the day after the ceasefire. It is likely that Netanyahu believes that Israel should "be patient and maintain military pressure in conjunction with the negotiations, even if it takes another two or three weeks."
However, the picture is not as rosy as Netanyahu would like, and it seems that he is now in a dilemma, and Hamas's initial acceptance of the offer of mediators seems to be a step in the right direction, as it has relieved the Palestinians of the cost of disrupting the negotiation process and put the burden of pressure on Netanyahu alone.
Yes, Hamas has chosen a very sensitive timing to put an entire state in a predicament: a partial agreement as it wants, or a full agreement to return all prisoners that ends the war, it has agreed to a partial deal under which ten prisoners will be released alive and eighteen bodies, in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire, a partial Israeli withdrawal inside the Gaza Strip, and the release of a number of Palestinian prisoners with high sentences, which in itself is a complex dilemma with "moral, emotional, political and military" aspects.
If Netanyahu refuses to offer a partial deal, he will not release ten living prisoners that Israeli society is eager to see among them, and he will not bury eighteen dead Israelis, in exchange for the uncertainty of reaching a comprehensive deal in the foreseeable future that would return all the prisoners, and the escalation of the military operation is likely to endanger Israeli prisoners, and possibly lead to their deaths. Will Netanyahu bear this price?
So far, it is not possible to say for sure that Netanyahu will reject the offer made by the mediators, although the indications are inclined towards rejecting it, and it is likely that Israel is heading towards further escalation and military pressure as part of Netanyahu's quest to impose his plan of concluding a comprehensive deal according to his preconditions for concluding the interim agreement, as Netanyahu believes that the best solution is to demand a comprehensive deal and reach an agreement on it before the official announcement of the ceasefire, partially or completely.
Implementation can be gradual, but the agreement must include the principles of a permanent ceasefire, which are clear before the release of the first batch of prisoners and the entry into force of the ceasefire. Because Netanyahu is certain that Hamas will most likely reject these conditions, he is reassured that the partial deal will fail and the idea of a comprehensive deal will be torpedoed, and the result is that in both cases, the war he wants will continue.
There is no doubt that US President Donald Trump's support for Benjamin Netanyahu is the main obstacle to the completion of the prisoner exchange deal, partial or total, and it does not seem that the US president intends to intervene this time either, and will leave the decision of the deal to Israel.
Therefore, Netanyahu will continue with the strategy of eternal war that he leads. It is true that Netanyahu has threatened to occupy the Gaza Strip to pressure Hamas to return to the negotiating table and agree to a comprehensive deal, according to which all prisoners are released and Israel's conditions for a permanent ceasefire, but he is also aware that this weapon, which he has waved with Trump's full support, will be ready to be fired soon.
In fact, the Israeli occupation "army" began to take control of Gaza City even before the Cabinet made the decision to take control of the Strip, when combat teams from the 99th Division began to advance slowly towards the Zaytoun neighborhood, located on the southern outskirts of the city.
Certainly, Netanyahu who looks around him sees an absent Arab and Muslim nation, an international community that is unable to stop the war, a frustrated and desperate Israeli public, and an Israeli army that is exhausted but knocked out and submissive to the government's agenda, believes that all roads lead To the war!..