Afrasianet - Mardini regime - Imamoglu's arrest was not just an ordinary legal procedure, but was used as a means to change the equations of electoral competition in favor of the regime, as he is seen as President Erdogan's strongest rival in the upcoming presidential elections. 

Turkish novelist Orhan Pamuk was not mistaken when he saw that "Turkish politics today is full of a huge amount of polarization and hostility, and he calls on Turkish politicians to put an end to this." The old Turkey, boasting of representative democracy, is gone after the arrest of the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu (March 19, 2025), and since his arrest, hundreds of thousands of citizens have taken to the streets to demand his release, and with this arrest, Turkey is reshaping the contours of its internal system and shaping its future in light of a turbulent global scene. 

Imamoglu emerged as one of the most prominent opposition figures after his historic victory in the Istanbul mayoral elections in 2019, as he was able to achieve a great victory over his rivals from the ruling current, which made him a symbol of hope and change for many people on the Turkish street, but the success he achieved did not come without challenges, as he has since been subjected to repeated pressure from the authorities, represented in attempts to tarnish his image by bringing charges related to corruption and supporting terrorism, which shows the regime's willingness to use legal means And all the wish to exclude opposition figures that may threaten his hegemony.

Imamoglu's arrest was not just an ordinary legal procedure, but was used as a means to change the electoral competition equations in favor of the ruling regime, as he is seen as President Erdogan's strongest rival in the upcoming presidential elections to be held in 2028, so the regime seeks to weaken its electoral chances by tarnishing its image and imposing legal and security pressure on it. In light of regional events, especially with the continuing repercussions of the Syrian crisis and the changing balance of power between Turkey and Iran, it seems that the "train of change" has stopped at a crossroads that are difficult to overcome. We still recall the cry of the Turkish writer Cengiz Sendar: "Let's look for Erdogan among the rubble in Syria."

Imamoglu's candidacy as a contender for the presidency was expected, and aims to reinforce the perception that prosecuting the mayor amounts to political persecution. The CHP also aims to export after the presidential competition over the Imamoglu case to raise costs for Erdogan, and the nomination even confirms that Turkey has entered a long-term political battle.

After 23 years in power, with Turkey's economy collapsing, Erdogan knows that any election, even if rigged, will not be safe. He was thus faced with two options: cancel the vote or remove any reasonable challenger. But timing was important. Before taking this step, he had to make sure that the geopolitical chessboard was arranged in his favor. If the Turkish voter is convinced that the accusations against Imamoglu  are false, he is likely to express his position at the ballot box by supporting whoever the opposition candidate is.

Democracies rarely die suddenly. Rather, its demise is the culmination of a process in which political prosecutions, imprisonment or exclusion of dissidents, criminalization of protest, seizure of universities, and silencing the voices of knowledgeable people. To paraphrase the words of the British poet Dylan Thomas: "The Turks prove that they will not be gently led into that dark authoritarian night." Turkey's political landscape will remain in turmoil and suspense, as future developments will determine the course of democracy and stability in the country.

After a failed military coup attempt on July 15, 2016, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's powers were strengthened, particularly after the 2017 constitutional amendments, which moved the country from a parliamentary system to a presidential system, giving the president sweeping powers at the expense of parliament and the judiciary. Thus, the coup attempt marked the starting point for a new path in Turkish politics, as power became more centralized and dissent was restricted, making the Turkish political scene more polarized and putting the country in the eye of the storm.  

Now, Turkey suffers from severe political and economic instability, which pushes the regime to use all possible means to protect its interests at the expense of public freedoms. In previous experiences, where Kurdish mayors were arrested and dissent muzzled, this strategy has become a familiar tool for the authorities in dealing with any strong opposition. In the turbulent regional and international contexts, securing the domestic situation becomes essential to avoid external pressures that could weaken the state's position.

Ankara has played a strategic role in the heart of the Middle East, which makes it pivotal in many regional transformations, especially the Syrian crisis, which is a major factor in rearranging the equations of power in the region, as both Turkey and Iran affect the repercussions of this crisis in different ways, which increases the intensity of competition for influence in the region, and here it can be noted that the harmony between the Turkish and Israeli occupations continues to overthrow all Syrian state institutions.

It is "Machiavellianism", which is a theory of governance, behavior and behavior that seeks to reach power, a political theory whose main pillar is the end that justifies the means, whatever its type, and its system and rule of governance is immoral rule The most dangerous rule of its rules is the possibility that the prohibited becomes permissible, so that cruelty and brutality in the struggle of rulers for power turns into a strategic goal, so the practice of bloody and immoral behavior becomes permissible and a necessary means to reach the helm of governance.

Any historical society (a society that meets the conditions for development) is based on two main pillars: a set of practices it carries out towards its surroundings (its natural and human resources), which is called the economy, and a set of interpretations it produces about these practices to give them meaning, which is called the culture of democracy.

Turkey is descending into a dangerously failed democratic culture. Whether it returns to institutional reform or continues to descend into authoritarianism depends on the choices made in the coming period. The international community has paid this great attention, and a German member of the European Parliament has called for the suspension of political dialogue between the European Union and Turkish President Erdogan, pending the release of Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu. 

This call comes from MP Michael Galler, who confirmed in statements to the German newspaper "Bild" that the continued detention  of "Imamoglu" calls for freezing political contacts between Brussels and Ankara, considering that this step will significantly increase pressure on the Turkish president. Ozgur Ozil, leader of Turkey's main opposition People's Party, has accused Erdogan of pursuing a "policy of distancing" Turkey from Europe.

Turkey's Haberturk TV quoted a clip from Ozil's speech: "I say this with regret: the visits of a number of MEPs to Turkey in April (following Imamoglu's arrest) were canceled, and meetings between European officials and the Turkish foreign minister at the upcoming diplomatic forum in Antalya were canceled. I'm frustrated by this. Erdogan's policy distances Turkey from Europe and the Democratic League."

The European escalation comes as demonstrations continue in Turkey to protest the arrest of Imamoglu, where Ankara recently witnessed a large demonstration organized by thousands of lawyers against what they described as the arbitrariness of the authorities. But if the CHP learned anything from Imamoglu's arrest, it must have learned that the old tactics, based on the belief that change happens through polite negotiations and interim confrontations, are no longer fit for display.

Not only does this mean that the party must adjust its methods, but the CHP must realize that it is no longer a hero in Turkish politics. This role now belongs to the disgruntled, frustrated, and courageous Turkish people who see Imamoglu's arrest not as an attack on one man, but on their collective future. Turkey is now a completely authoritarian state. But how can Erdogan's unpredictable actions negatively affect his foreign policy? Will he have to prove that his tyranny has limits?