Afrasianet - The Ukrainian regime has placed itself between the hammer of Russia and the anvil of the West and its fate is expected to exit with a zero outcome in the war, and the question remains, what fate awaits Ukraine in the coming days?
Three years have passed since the Russian-Ukrainian war, which raged on February 22, 2022, with no prospect of a political solution yet to emerge, while Ukraine is suffering more heavy losses in personnel and equipment, leading to the loss of more territory to Moscow.
International conflicts are an arena of competition between two parties whose interests conflict. The main determinant is the results produced in favor of one side or the other, depending on the balance of power on the battlefield. But in the case of equal power, the results are neither victorious nor defeated, which begs the most important question: what have the Ukrainians gained after three years of this war against Russia?
when the Kiev regime decided to fight the war on behalf of the West, motivated by a reckless enthusiasm that imagined that it could defeat Russia, which aspires to play a pivotal role in the international arena, despite its prior awareness of the power difference between it and it, thinking that it would be interceded for membership in NATO and the European Union, and that unlimited Western support would enable it to achieve victory over Russia, it did not take into account the consequences of this war and the high cost that this war would have. Paid. And that he is just a pawn in Western chess in its conflict with the Kremlin.
Today, after nearly three years of war, Ukraine has lost thousands of troops from its troops, and it is difficult to compensate for the failure of general mobilization among the Ukrainian people, in addition to the loss of about 20 percent of the territory that was once the backbone of the Ukrainian economy, and the percentage is likely to rise as the battles continue, in addition to the accumulation of trillions of dollars in debt that it received as various aid from Western countries and the International Monetary Fund without achieving any political gain. Or a little strategist. This mortgages the country's future for decades.
Worse, the Kiev regime lost the bet on joining NATO, after the decisive statement on the subject by US Secretary of Defense Pete Higesyth, which was evident some time ago by the hints of many Western leaders that this is impossible because their main purpose is to fight Ukraine by proxy Russia to the last soldier.
The Ukrainians could have avoided this war from the beginning, if they had shown the logic of wisdom and prudence and gave priority to the interest of the country by entering into dialogue with Russia, which has repeatedly called for dialogue and tried to adhere to the outcomes of the Istanbul Agreement in March 2022 for the benefit of the two neighboring countries, which are linked by neighborly ties, blood, history and religion, but the Kiev regime chose to disavow the agreement with Western instructions, and instead chose to be drawn into Western plans aimed at containing Moscow by entering into a military confrontation. And that brought woes to the country.
The beginning of the dismantling of Ukraine was not due to the current war, as some might think, but its signs have been looming since 2014 when far-right forces and Western-backed Nazis revolted against former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in the events of the so-called "Orange Revolution", without knowing that they had thus plunged their country into the adult game that leads to crushing the weaker party in the equation of the conflict, and the result was the secession of Crimea from Ukraine and its accession to Russia in Constitutional referendum.
The situation was further complicated when the Ukrainians decided to join NATO, abandoning the neutrality that prevailed after the dissolution of the Soviet Union following the Orange Revolution. Russia saw Ukraine's behavior as a threat to its national security, which was aimed at undermining Russia's strategic rise by stifling it within its geographical boundaries and weakening it by encircling Moscow.
The Kiev regime did not grasp the harsh lesson of neighboring countries that experienced Western-backed color revolutions, such as Georgia and Armenia. In Georgia, former President Mikheil Saakashvili led the "Rose Revolution" against President Eduard Shevardnadze in 2003, and five years later fought a Western-encouraged war with Russia, resulting in the loss of the Republic of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, leader of the Civic Contract party, led the "velvet revolution" against former Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan in 2018.The result was the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan after a fierce war between them, which ended with the signing of a humiliating peace agreement that resulted in the region's accession to Azerbaijan.
However, Ukrainian officials continue to make mistakes by relying on the solidarity shown by European leaders with their country, which will not have much impact given Europe's limited influence on the international stage and its dependence on the United States. This solidarity, while seemingly related to the humiliation of President Volodymyr Zelensky by President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, and to the issue of security guarantees, is due, in my view, to Europe's dissatisfaction with the United States' desire to acquire natural resources. Ukraine has a scarcity, without Europe having a share of it despite being the second partner supporting the Kiev regime.
In the end, the Ukrainian regime has placed itself between the hammer of Russia and the anvil of the West, and its fate is expected to exit with a zero outcome in the war, and the question remains, what fate awaits Ukraine in the coming days? Let's wait and see.