Afrasianet – From accusing terrorism to pushing Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham to the forefront and supporting the administration of Syria. These are the realities of the American and Atlantic dealings with those who hand over power after Assad's departure, but what next?

The fall of the Assad regime has left behind a series of daunting challenges facing the current administration in Syria that would have faced any other government in charge, as the country suffers from a near-total paralysis of the economy and a sharp deterioration in basic services, even in major cities such as Aleppo.

One of the main challenges facing Syria now is laying the foundations for a transition that paves the way for a transition from the current interim status to a permanent political system of government. There is a near consensus among the various Syrian components that the main foundations for a political transition should be laid as soon as possible to ensure stability.

The National Dialogue Conference and the foundations of the transitional period

Since mid-December, the new Syrian administration has repeatedly announced its intention to convene a national dialogue conference in order to lay the foundations for the transitional period.

The last time the current administration put forward the idea of the conference was in late the same month, when Syrian media leaked information that the administration intends to invite about 1,200 people to participate in the conference scheduled for early January.

But later, the same media outlets reported that the conference would be postponed indefinitely in light of the dispute with other components such as the Syrian National Coalition, which refuses to invite its members in their individual capacity and not as a unified entity.

 Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of the new administration, said in a television interview late last month that the transitional period could extend to four years, during which the constitution would be drafted. Hadi al-Bahra, head of the National Coalition, said in another interview that the process of writing the constitution only needs one day, calling for the participation of all Syrian components in the transitional government and for it to be non-sectarian.

Other Syrian components, such as Kurds andDruze, are demanding the establishment of a system of governance that takes into account their specificities, such as the decentralization system that Hikmat al-Hijri, head of the Druze spiritual establishment in Suwayda, has clearly expressed his desire to implement in Syria.

In light of the above, it seems that consensus on the foundations of the transitional period will be one of the most important entitlements that Syria will face during the new year.

Structure of the Ministry of Defense and the security institution

After Bashar al-Assad fled Syria, the military and security forces collapsed completely, leaving their weapons inside the military barracks controlled by the Joint Operations Department, which led operations against forces affiliated with the former regime.

Israel also ensured the near-total destruction of the remaining warplanes in Syria through a large-scale air operation launched the day after Assad's escape, in addition to the destruction of several weapons depots in Damascus and its countryside.

The new administration quickly appointed Marhaf Abu Qusra as defense minister and Anas Khattab as intelligence chief, two former HTS leaders, the latter announcing that one security institution would be accredited in Syria and all 17 former security branches would be dissolved.

Since mid-December 2024, Al-Sharaa and Abu Qusra have held repeated meetings with the military factions that participated in the Deterrence of Aggression and Dawn of Freedom operations, and discussed the dissolution of all factions and their integration into the new Ministry of Defense.

However, private sources within the Syrian National Army factions reported that many factions have objections to the way the new administration is trying to put forward them, and try to dissolve them all under the command of figures who mostly belong to one faction.

On the other hand, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), whose fighters are mostly Kurdish-component, still retain its structure, and its commander, Mazloum Abdi, repeatedly announces their readiness to enter the Ministry of Defense, but only after agreeing on the mechanism for its establishment.

The year 2025, especially the first months of it, is expected to witness extensive discussions regarding the formation of the army and security institutions, with challenges represented by the presence of components uncomfortable with the way the Minister of Defense was announced, especially the SDF, and the Druze factions in Suwayda governorate, where the largest faction, the Men of Dignity Movement, announced its refusal to hand over weapons to any party.

The fate of northeastern Syria

The SDF forces control strategic areas in northeastern Syria that contain oil fields such as the Rmeilan field in Hasakah, and the Omar and Jufra fields. These forces do not hesitate to use the oil card to pressure the rulers of Damascus to achieve political gains, and have resorted to this card throughout their negotiations with the ousted Assad regime over the past years.

The new administration is also aware of the importance of resolving this issue because the agreement on the future of the region and the mechanism of oil management in it will reflect positively on the reality of services after providing part of the population's needs of fuel, in addition to operating power and water stations.
During the last two weeks of last month, the United States brought military reinforcements from Ain al-Assad base in Iraq to Kharab al-Jir base in the Syrian countryside of Hasakah.

It also conducted patrols on the lines of engagement between the SDF, the forces of the new administration and the Dawn of Freedom Operations Room, and Washington, through contacts with Ankara, was able to push for a truce that prevented Turkish aircraft from participating in supporting fighters' operations on the ground.

According to sources in the new administration, the latter does not mind negotiating the future of the SDF and northeastern Syria, but according to a mechanism that does not keep these forces as a single bloc and an administrative system independent of the rest of Syria.

The fate of northeastern Syria is largely linked to the future of the US presence in Syria, and Trump's candidate for national security adviser Michael Waltz has stressed  that American soldiers should not be in Syria in the future, which if it happens quickly to achieve understandings between the Kurds and the new administration.

Return of Syrian refugees

Millions of Syrian refugees, especially in Syria's neighboring countries represented by Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon, are awaiting the course of the situation in Syria, and the extent of the current administration's success in controlling security and improving basic services until they make their decision to return to their country by the summer of 2025 after the end of the school season, and the availability of suitable weather conditions.

This is what Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya predicted, who announced the return of nearly 35,000 Syrian refugees from Turkey to their country since the fall of Assad, and the number of returnees is likely to increase next summer.

Despite expectations of the return of a good part of Syrian refugees from Turkey and Jordan to Syria, there are obstacles that may prevent the return of all refugees, the first of which is the lack of sufficient housing for everyone due to the widespread destruction that has befallen many Syrian cities and towns as a result of the conditions of war.

It is also unclear whether we will see improvements in security, education and electricity, as Syrian governorates suffer from a scarcity of electricity that reaches residents between two and four hours a day, depending on the governorate or city.

In mid-December, al-Sharaa called on Western governments to lift sanctions on Syria and remove Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham from the list of terrorist organizations, because sanctions were imposed during Assad's time, and now they must be lifted to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees who fled the war, and to allow the country's reconstruction.

If the sanctions imposed on Syria continue, it is difficult to expect an expansion in reconstruction projects and foreign investments that will contribute to the development of economic life, and therefore many Syrians, especially capital owners, will prefer to wait and maintain the stability of their projects in the countries in which they are located.