A preliminary inventory of what has passed and an attempt to anticipate what is coming

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Afrasianet - This round of conflict revealed the true face of the Zionist entity, exposed its expansionist goals towards many Arab countries, and confirmed its true implicit intentions to exterminate the Palestinian people.


At the end of the planned years, there is an increased need to take a look at what has passed, in the hope of assessing what has happened, and in the beginning of the coming years, the need to anticipate what is to come, in anticipation of surprises that the future may hold.


Because what has happened since the "Al-Aqsa Flood" has been so huge that it is difficult to deny the magnitude of its expected effects on the future of the region, it is natural that observers will disagree not only about the truth of what happened, but also about measuring its potential effects on the future of the region.


A team of observers of what is happening in the region believes that the current round of armed conflict with the Zionist entity, which began after Hamas launched the "Al-Aqsa Flood" and then expanded to include all parties to the "axis of resistance", has already ended and been resolved in favor of the Zionist entity, which is now preparing to dictate its conditions to everyone.


At the Palestinian level, Israel has managed to destroy the Gaza Strip, and it needs many years to rebuild it and rehabilitate it for life again, and it succeeded in dealing severe blows to the Palestinian armed resistance factions and was able to remove them all from the military equation of the conflict, and it is in a position that does not allow them to be an active political party or a participant in shaping the Palestinian future.


At the Lebanese level, the entity was able to harm Hezbollah, the main center of gravity in the axis of resistance, and succeeded in destroying most of the cities and villages of the south, where it is popular incubator.


After losing its most important military and political leaders, including its Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who filled the world and occupied the people, Hezbollah was forced to accept a ceasefire, was forced to disengage from the Gaza Strip and accepted the idea of withdrawing its troops and equipment beyond the Litani River.


On the Syrian front, Israel played a pivotal role in toppling the Assad regime, whose collapse led to Syria's final removal from the arena of conflict with Israel. Because Syria has been the main link between Iran and Hezbollah, it is widely believed that Hezbollah's ability to rearm itself and return to the level of readiness it had before the flood outbreak is severely limited, if not non-existent.


On the Iranian front, Israel has been able not only to deal painful blows to Iran, but also to isolate it from most of the parties to the "axis of resistance" that it leads itself. It is true that the interactions resulting from the "Al-Aqsa flood" prompted Iran to engage directly militarily with Israel for the first time in its history, but its ability to respond to uninterrupted Israeli provocations is now limited. Therefore, the team that promotes such ideas believes that the entity is now on its way out of the current round of conflict victorious and is able to impose its will and conditions on all its opponents.


Although this team relies on some facts that are difficult for any objective observer to refute or question their veracity, its vision is incapable of understanding the various dimensions and data of the conflict in the region, and its conclusions seem inadequate, hasty, and perhaps also biased towards the view that Iran is the main source of threat to the region. This deficiency is evidenced by several arguments, the most important of which are:


First, the current round of military conflict with Israel has not yet been definitively settled. At the Palestinian level, Hamas, along with the rest of the Palestinian armed factions, continues to resist aggression and inflicts heavy losses on a daily basis in the ranks of the "army" of the entity, which has so far been unable to free its prisoners or to take effective and permanent control over any part of the territory of the Gaza Strip.


At the Lebanese level, it is not true that Hezbollah broke or collapsed, as it was able to quickly regain its balance despite the severe blows it received, and many neutral sources confirm that it still retains most of its combat capabilities.


It agreed to a ceasefire and to disengage from the Gaza Strip in the interest of the safety of the home front, at a time when it was still steadfast and able to continue fighting and inflict heavy losses on the "army" of the entity, which was unable to penetrate Lebanese territory until after the ceasefire came into force.


On the level of Yemen, it is clear to all those who have eyes that Ansar Allah, whose participation in this round of conflict came as a major surprise, has become a serious challenge and threat to an entity that is at least two thousand kilometers away from its borders, which no one could have imagined would have happened at all. Finally, it can be said that Iran still retains its full military capabilities and capabilities despite the entity's claims that it was able to destroy most of its air defenses in one of its raids.


Second: The regular Arab armies were completely absent from this round of conflict and did not participate in it from near or far, but some Arab countries to which these armies belong provided direct or indirect support to the entity that was forced in this round of conflict to fight the longest war in its history, during which it suffered human and material losses that were not inflicted on it in any previous wars, which reaffirms that guerrilla warfare is the best way to defeat it.


Third: This round of conflict revealed the true face of the Zionist entity, exposed its expansionist goals towards many Arab countries, and confirmed its true implicit intentions to exterminate the Palestinian people or force them to leave their homeland.


The student demonstrations that erupted in most universities proved that the whole world has begun to realize that the Zionist entity has never been an oasis of democracy surrounded by a vast sea of tyranny, or a small, peaceful country besieged by an Arab cordon that seeks to suffocate and destroy it, as it had been promoting before.


Netanyahu understands that the current round of armed conflict, the longest in Israel's history, is far from being decided. It is true that he has achieved many tactical achievements, but at the same time he knows that Israel will not be able to achieve any strategic achievement unless it manages to defeat Iran, which he considers "the head of the snake."


Because Trump is the only American president who dared to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, which he recognized as the unified and eternal capital of the entity, and to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Syrian Golan Heights, and he was the most tough American president in confronting Iran, as evidenced by his decision to end the American engagement with the agreement on its nuclear program and impose the harshest and most comprehensive sanctions on it, Netanyahu believes that he is the only one who can help him overcome the Iranian dilemma or complex, and therefore eagerly awaits his entry into the house. White to begin coordination with him immediately on how to deal with Iran in the next stage.


Netanyahu hopes that he will be able to convince Trump of the need for the United States to tighten sanctions on Iran to the maximum extent possible, in a first stage aimed at tightening the noose on it, besieging it and weakening it at all levels, in preparation for striking it and working to overthrow its regime at a later stage.


But the prospects of him persuading Trump to follow this approach seem limited, owing to the consequences of such an adventure that the American deep state cannot risk accepting.


Because Trump is very sensitive to everything that affects Israeli security, it is not inconceivable that he will try alternative strategies, which we believe are more in line with his mentality and his usual way of dealing with protracted and complex conflicts.


These strategies, for example, seek to isolate and weaken Iran by imposing the harshest possible sanctions on it, while at the same time starting to pressure Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with the entity, in exchange for the withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip, which will try to temporarily subject it to a joint Arab-Palestinian administration, that is, an administration in which certain Arab countries participate alongside the Palestinian Authority, in parallel with enabling the entity to annex most of the settlements established in the West Bank, and perhaps all territories located in Area C, in order to appease the most extreme wing of Netanyahu's government.


An immediate ceasefire may indeed be achieved as soon as Trump enters the White House, and perhaps just before he enters, but the prospects for compromise under this entrepreneurial and arrogant president seem fraught with all sorts of risks.


Therefore, the Arab world, peoples and Governments, must be highly vigilant and alert to the plans that will be hatched for the region in the next few months.

It is quite clear that the main objective of these plans will be the complete and final liquidation of the Palestinian cause and the empowerment of the Zionist entity, a reliable ally of the United States, to unilaterally control the entire Middle East region.

 

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