Can America stop this African and Arab trend towards Russia?
Afrasianet - Dr. Zakaria Shaheen - The Atlanticians, led by the United States of America, do not hide their intentions to support Ukraine against Russia, this support that has reached the limits of actual participation in this war, weapons and human elements disguised under the guise that they are mercenaries while they are mostly part of the armies that the Atlantic West is preparing little by little to participate in this war, and the
decision to allow Ukraine to target the Russian depth with Western missiles is only a blatant confirmation of this participation.
There is another kind of pressure that falls within the Atlantic hysteria led by the United States, which is the enormous pressure exerted on Arabs and Africans to stand by Ukraine in the face of Russia and even to participate in Ukrainian support.
Since the Russian special military operation in Ukraine began, the Arab reaction to the war in Ukraine has been characterized by much silence with little enthusiasm for sanctions or moves to sever diplomatic relations.
Despite the war in Syria, or perhaps because of it, there is continued faith in Vladimir Putin's vision of a multipolar world. Only the view that Russia is fighting the West on behalf of all those harmed by the United States has been reinforced.
While the West is clearly losing the information war in many Arabic-speaking countries, many countries, which themselves are no strangers to the conflict, are choosing to remain neutral in the Kremlin's now fighting war in Europe.
While there have been some tepid condemnations, some have remained silent as no one seems to want to anger the United States or clash with Russia.
Mirissa Korma, director of the Middle East program at the Wilson Center in Washington, says the United States is slowly withdrawing from the region.
"Many countries in the region had to lay their eggs in different baskets, and that includes Russia's," she adds.
It is an approach that has become the norm for the countries of the Arab world.
Syria is Russia's closest ally on all issues. Syria was the first, and by far the only, country in the region to follow Russia's example and recognize the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk.
Syria also voted against a UN resolution condemning Russia's aggression against Ukraine, while Algeria, Iraq, Iran, and initially the United Arab Emirates, abstained, and others, such as Morocco, preferred not to participate in the voting process at all.
Kelly Betello, Middle East and North Africa program coordinator at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said: "While the majority of governments in the region have much stronger ties with the United States, Russia has become an increasingly important trade and military partner."
Most Middle Eastern countries opted for a wait-and-see approach after Russia's "invasion of Ukraine," with many eventually voting in favor of a UN resolution condemning Russia's actions in Ukraine, but they did not go beyond this symbolic gesture.
Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told CNN at an international conference in Doha: "From a business perspective, we don't choose which side we do business, we do our business."
In recent years, even America's traditional allies in the Middle East have tried to diversify their relations by building ties with other countries including Russia.
As U.S. influence diminishes, it is clear that these countries want to make the most of the capital they have accumulated elsewhere.
Kirill Semyonov, an expert at Russia's International Affairs Council (a nonprofit founded by presidential decree from former President Dmitry Medvedev in 2011), says the perception that Ukraine is part of a wider conflict is also important.
He told the BBC: "For many Arab countries Russia is actually at war with all of NATO and not just with Ukraine.
After the September 11, 2001 attacks, U.S. politicians and military leaders began to "win hearts and minds" in Iraq and other Middle Eastern countries.
Nadia Oueidat, an associate professor at the University of Kansas and a fellow in the Middle East program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center, said: "But two decades later, Russia is now playing a key role in the battle to win the hearts and minds of the Arab world."
A recent survey of youth sentiment in Arab countries also reported that young people are already drawn more to Russia than the United States, with 70 percent describing Russia as an ally and 26 percent describing it as an enemy. Anyone who follows social media sites sees anti-Western sentiment regularly on Arabic-language online platforms, where writings about colonialism and double standards of the West are frequent, and a recurring theme in this context is the difference in attitudes towards refugees from Ukraine who have been welcomed. They are warmer in Europe than refugees from Yemen, Syria and Afghanistan who have been "isolated behind the fence."
"Democratic norms are not defended or even explained, as there is no question of this narrative," says Nadia Oueidat.
Saudi political analyst Mansour al-Marzouqi of the Prince Saud al-Faisal Institute for Diplomatic Studies in Riyadh said: "Riyadh is not part of this conflict and does not want to be part of this conflict."
Kirill Semyonov, an expert at the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs, agrees that "the issue of the Ukrainian crisis, which the United States and Europe are trying to impose on the Arab world, is not close to the Arab countries."
"The war in Yemen is much more important for the Middle East, and in the eyes of many countries in the region it is just like the war in Ukraine, so Russia's position for many countries is not incomprehensible and inexplicable, as, for example, in Europe."
A brave new world and what does Syria have to do with it?
The Russian victory will add arguments for those looking for a governance model that is different from democracy, a shift in geopolitics, a new outlook on international law, and a different security model.
The bloody protests of 2011, which went down in history as the "Arab Spring," did not lead to democratic changes but rather had the opposite effect on the Arab world, since then almost all countries in the region have turned towards authoritarianism where they have lost what remains of faith in democracy.
The latest Arab Barometer public opinion poll for BBC News showed that people in the Arab world are losing faith that
democracy can bring stability to the Middle East and North Africa.
Annecy Van England, an associate professor at Cranfield University, says: "If Russia succeeds in Ukraine, there will be a lot of appetite in the Middle East for a miniature version of Russia."
Russia has recognized the fact that the United States has lost interest in the Middle East and has long been trying to fill the resulting vacuum. Many experts now point out that the war in Syria, and in particular Russia's entry into that conflict, represents a turning point that has changed the balance of power and attitudes toward Russia and the world.
Fabrice Balanche, associate professor and director of research at the University of Lyon 2 and associate fellow at The Washington Institute, said: "Russia has shown what it can do in Syria where it has shown its unparalleled power, and the Arab world respects force and respects Russia similarly."
Balanche says that since then Arab states have believed that the West is not as strong as Russia and cannot use force as Putin does.
"Arab countries no longer fear the United States or Western sanctions, and if necessary they can turn to Russia."
For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia prevented the overthrow of a regime, Gaddafi was the last leader to be overthrown, there was a shift in 2011-2016.
"They realize that Russia has become a rather new pole, a new power in the new multipolar world that Putin talks about so much," Balanche believes.
Arab leaders from the Syrian war got the impression that Russia was loyal and "does not abandon its allies," while the United States did not support Mubarak in Egypt or Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia, who were ousted after a wave of protests during the Arab Spring.
Oil, Gas & Grains
The war in Ukraine has already affected several sectors important to the Arab world's economy, from oil and gas and agricultural imports to arms trade and tourism.
The current situation works in favor of the petrostates of the Gulf as rising energy prices allow them to earn more and increase gas supplies to Europe.
Lebanon, Tunisia and Egypt depend on Russian grain, Russian businessmen move to the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt and Russia support one of the warring parties in neighboring Libya.
Algeria buys weapons from Russia, Morocco hopes for Russia's voice in the Security Council in the Western Sahara conflict, while Iran and Russia are allies in Syria.
Gulf states are reaching out to Russia as part of OPEC+ and have yet to listen to U.S. and European demands to increase oil production.
For now, Russian expert Kirill Semyonov believes Moscow's standing in the Middle East remains secure.
"Russia's influence in the region will remain the same, Russia will be able to maintain all its positions, nothing indicates, so far, that it is weakening," he told the BBC.
In the African positions, there are multiple tendencies, represented in carrot at times and intimidation in most cases, for example, and in a clear diplomatic malice, America pushed Ukraine to move towards Africa through the so-called grain diplomacy after Russia provided many African countries with grain for free during the escalation of this crisis.
Russia's relationship with many countries of the African continent dates back decades, dating back to the era of the former Soviet Union, which provided support to African countries in gaining independence.
Ilya Kosa, an expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, said that Ukraine "failed to obtain part of the [Soviet] legacy in Africa, noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin has for years made efforts to revive the relationship between Russia and Africa or search for new relations, whether by providing military, material and diplomatic support. As for Ukraine, its diplomatic presence before the Russian military operation in Africa was meager, with embassies in ten African countries compared to 43 Russian embassies.
Ofegwe Egwego, a Nigerian political researcher at international consulting firm Development Reimagined, says Ukraine's "diplomatic history in Africa is zero."
The researcher's talk seems to be consistent with some data on the ground, as Ukraine has supported only a limited number of African countries during the vote on UN resolutions since the start of the war. In this context, only 28 African countries supported the first UN draft resolution calling for an immediate cessation of
the war, while one African country voted against it, but it is noteworthy that 17 African countries abstained from voting with eight others not present.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba made several African tours between 2022 and 2023, as well as visiting the headquarters of the African Union.
However, according to Ovijoy Iguijo, Ukraine "has lagged behind in Africa because in the thirty years since Kiev's independence, none of its presidents or foreign ministers has toured Africa."
Ukraine is not trying to move alone in Africa, as the US embassies contribute to supporting this move by putting pressure on African countries that have an American presence, although this presence has begun to shrink, especially in the Sahel and Sahara countries.
Russia did not stand silent about this, as it announced its intention to open four new diplomatic missions, bringing the number of its embassy in the continent to 47, in conjunction with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's many African tours, where he went to Guinea, Chad, Burkina Faso and the Republic of Congo. Russia has also begun sending free grain shipments to Africa as part of Putin's pledge to ship grain to six African countries.
But it was not just grain shipments, but included Mali's government signing an agreement with Russia to set up a gold refinery in Africa's biggest gold producer, and Burkina Faso's government reopening the Russian embassy after a three-decade closure amid the deployment of Russian troops to train security forces.
At the behest of the United States , Ukraine has started donating grain free of charge under a program launched in November 2022 under the name "Grains from Ukraine" with the aim of exporting grain to African countries. Despite Ukraine 's growing efforts to consolidate its influence in Africa, its foreign minister noted in November that his country "received little in return."
In his comment, Fabricius said that Ukraine "has made great efforts, including visiting 12 African countries and opening embassies, but we should not expect African countries to open embassies in Kiev as the war continues.
Ukraine's lack of great success on the continent was evident during the Ukrainian peace summit in Switzerland, where only 11 African countries signed the final communiqué, which was supported by 82 countries.
Although African countries such as Ghana and Kenya have expressed support for Ukraine, Fabricius argues that there are two main reasons why many African countries are reluctant to side with Kiev. "One of these reasons is simply the war in Ukraine far from Africa. Although many countries on the continent have tried to maintain a great degree of non-alignment such as South Africa, they consider the current war a European war."
For his part, Ovegoye Iguigo believes that the problem is that Ukraine's diplomatic messages are "Westernized," noting that many Western countries have "lost credibility in many parts of Africa."
Despite Ukraine's intensive moves toward Africa, and despite U.S. pressure, its impact remains limited compared to Russia's. On the diplomatic front, although Kuleba has made four rounds involving 12 African countries, these countries have limited influence on the international and regional stage with the exception of Nigeria, Ethiopia, Senegal and Ivory Coast. Although some of these countries, such as Ghana, Liberia and Ivory Coast, have supported the return of Crimea to Ukrainian sovereignty, most African countries have not provided significant support. of Ukraine in the forums of the United Nations.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made six diplomatic tours during the same period, covering 14 countries. His tours began in July 2022 with visits to Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Congo, and then in January 2023 he visited South Africa, Eswatini, Angola and Eritrea. This was followed by visits in February 2023 to Mali, Mauritania and Sudan, in May and June 2023 he visited Kenya, Burundi, Mozambique, and South Africa, and concluded his tours in June 2024 with visits to Guinea, Chad, Congo Brazzaville and Burkina Faso.
Lavrov's visits focused on countries in political turmoil with historical ties to Russia, and it became clear that, compared to Ukraine, Russia has more influence in Africa, both diplomatically and militarily. Russia's diplomatic representation is present in 43 African countries, while Ukraine is seeking to increase the number of its embassies from 11 to just 21.
Ukraine's political approach, which is based on the common history of colonialism between Ukraine and African countries, has not achieved the desired results. It has even backfired, with Ukraine's support for some armed movements severing diplomatic relations with countries such as Mali and Niger.
This behavior has weakened Ukraine's position as a country demanding African support in international forums, as instead of supporting legitimacy, it is working to undermine it. Many African countries also see Ukraine as a proxy for the West, which has declining influence in Africa, especially France and the United States in the Sahel region.
Thus, these countries prefer to maintain their relations with Moscow, which they support politically and militarily, in addition to the fact that Russia has veto power in the Security Council, and a long history of supporting African liberation movements during the Soviet Union.
On the other hand, Russia has succeeded in concluding several military agreements with African countries, such as combating terrorism, supplying these countries with weapons and training their forces. According to a study by the European Parliament, Moscow concluded military agreements with 43 African countries between 2015 and 2022. These agreements have contributed to making Russia the main arms supplier on the African continent, as its arms exports accounted for about 40% of Africa's imports of major weapons systems during the period from 2018 to 2022.
On the humanitarian front, although Ukraine has succeeded in exporting grain to some African countries such as Sudan, Nigeria and Ethiopia, Russia has entered this field strongly as well, providing many African countries with wheat for free. During the Russia-Africa summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised to ship grain free to six African countries, including Zimbabwe, Burkina Faso, Mali, Eritrea, Central Africa, and Somalia.
Despite the intensive Ukrainian moves towards Africa , supported by the Atlantic West, led by the United States , since the beginning of the war with Russia, its influence remains limited compared to that of Russia. Moscow has been able to establish itself on the African continent, whether through intensive diplomatic visits or through military and economic agreements. In addition, Africans have developed a mental image that Ukraine is merely a proxy of the colonial West, whose influence on the continent is declining.
Atlantic hysteria and the United States in particular have not yet learned that pressure and sanctions are no longer a feasible weapon in a world that is gradually moving towards a multipolar world, and that Arabs and Africans alike are now interested in moving towards the East, and the joining of some countries and the request of others to join BRICS or other organizations outside the political and economic control of the West is evidence of the beginning of the inevitable decline of Western and American policy in the arrangements of the next and expected world.