Afrasianet - The idea of establishing a military alliance similar to NATO in the Middle East has returned to the top of the axes that the United States attaches great importance, and the United States was the first to work for the establishment of a Middle Eastern military alliance, when its former President Donald Trump announced that the United States would withdraw its hand From the Iranian nuclear agreement in 2018, after which he announced his intention to establish a new alliance called “NATO of the Middle East,” in which Israel would be the most important and powerful country, with the aim of repelling Iranian moves in the region.
This interest of the United States in creating such an alliance comes in order to pave the most appropriate way for Israel to confront Iran, which is getting stronger day by day. Middle East in order to support Israel in this difficult task.
There are several factors that may hasten the establishment of such an alliance, the first of which is the failure to move forward with the Iranian nuclear file, the second of which is the pressure exerted by Israel on the Biden administration, and last but not least the approaching US midterm elections.
At the same time, America is trying to reduce external pressure on it, as its preoccupation with the Russian-Ukrainian war and the intensification of its skirmishes with China, not to mention the internal crises it is experiencing, have caused it to have a state of dispersion on the level of its foreign policy, and therefore it is seeking to delegate some of its responsibilities to Israel with the help of Arab countries ally.
On the other hand, Israel continues its unremitting efforts to reach an agreement regarding the establishment of a Middle Eastern military alliance in which it plays a major role.
Perhaps Israel’s goals in establishing such an alliance are no longer limited to establishing its presence in the region or to strengthening the bonds of normalization with Arab countries, but rather Significantly strained Iranian-Israeli relations in recent times, in addition to the direct threats posed by Hezbollah to its security, prompted Israel to resort to the United States in order to pressure the Arab countries to agree to the establishment of a military alliance that would stand in the way of the difficulties that Iran places in the Middle East.
According to experts, some Arabs want to form a new Middle Eastern alliance with the aim of narrowing the sphere of influence of Iran and its allied forces in southern Syria.
The changing balances in the region
American efforts to form a military alliance under various names, such as the Arab NATO or the Middle East Strategic Alliance, did not bear fruit. With the aim of breaking Iran’s influence in the region, it must be noted here that the relations between regional and international alliances and most of the active countries in the region were not what they were before Joe Biden assumed the presidency in January 2021, so the initiative and timing of forming such Alliance facing objective setbacks impeding the establishment of this alliance.
For example, the United Arab Emirates recently renewed its relations with Syria, making it the first Arab country that Bashar al-Assad has visited since 2011, and being a regionally active country, the UAE officially announced its refusal to establish a regional military alliance with Israel on June 26, and this Evidence of the efforts of the United States to establish a military alliance with the countries of the Middle East and Israel in order to confront Iranian threats to it, and this is what Joe Biden addressed to these threats in his speech when he spoke about the purpose of attending the summit in Jeddah, which was held in the middle of this month, July. Similarly, Qatar began to play a mediating role with the aim of resolving the crisis and easing the suffocation caused by the differences between Iran and the United States in the nuclear negotiations that began in Vienna. Qatar to Tehran, with the aim of completing efforts to revive the nuclear agreement.
The rapprochement on the Riyadh-Tehran line also showed that diplomatic relations between the two countries can be resumed shortly after the visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi to Saudi Arabia on June 25 and 26.
The Prime Minister of Iraq, who has hosted direct talks between Iranian and Saudi officials since April, went 2021” to Iran after Saudi Arabia during his regional tour and met with President Ibrahim Raisi. Iran's relations with the countries of the region make the idea of an alliance difficult The statements of Israeli officials reveal the seriousness of the Tel Aviv administration in establishing a military alliance that includes Arab and Gulf countries, in which Israel plays the most important role. past,” and that Israel is working to establish a regional defense alliance led by the United States.
Experts point out that the intensive and mutual visits to the Middle East countries at the level of leaders took place at a time when tensions between Iran, Israel and the United States escalated again in the region, noting the decrease in the intensity of tensions between Arab countries and Iran, and these developments show that only Israel is exerting pressure on Such regional alliances, even if under the auspices of the United States.
According to US media, in March of last year, the Washington administration held a secret meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, attended by leaders from Arab and Gulf countries, as well as American and Israeli leaders. The possibility of establishing a Middle Eastern alliance was discussed with the aim of repelling Iranian threats in the region.
In view of Iran’s relations with the countries of the region, Oman, Qatar and Iraq will constitute an obstacle to the formation of a military or political alliance against Iran, due to these countries’ strong relations with Iran at the political and military levels, and Saudi Arabia has expressed its willingness to start new pages with Iran through official agreements and negotiations, as stated According to its foreign minister, Egypt does not consider Iran a threat to its national security.
Therefore, it seems that changes in the region and relations between states play an active role, leaving Israel alone in dealing with Iranian threats. "Painting in the sand" Observers say that "the US President's visit to the Middle East may include a 'hidden pole' in light of the failure to form a Middle Eastern military alliance in the past reminiscent of the failure of the 'Baghdad Pact' in the fifties of the last century, but the United States may return the ball to Israel's need for such NATO in light of the growing Iranian military capabilities, thus weakening the Palestinian cause, and the demand of some of the “Arabs” of the Gulf not to freeze the Iranian nuclear program, but rather to eliminate the Iranian missile program, including the “Arabs” who fear handing over the region again to Iran.
On the establishment of the alliance, it is noted that Washington "held a summit of senior officials from Israel and Arab countries to discuss coordination against Iranian missiles and drones.
IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi and his counterparts in some Arab countries participated in these meetings, which is the first time that high-ranking officers have met From Israel and the Arab countries under American supervision. Under the headline "Egypt is with the economic alliances and against the military", Muhammad Abul-Fadl says in the London-based Al-Arab newspaper that Cairo "knows that any collective arrangements in the region [regarding the military alliance] will not succeed without its participation, and if it cannot stop it, it has the necessary ingredients.
It helps to make it fail, and that is why it seemed to be a common denominator in most of the moves since the announcement of Biden's tour in the region, and it has engaged in several dialogues with the relevant authorities at the Jeddah summit, as it is a weighty party to tip the balance or break it.
" Abu al-Fadl added: “Cairo knows that accepting a military alliance at the present time that includes Israel also puts it in a confrontation with Iran, which has always been keen to avoid confrontation with it. In the continuation of the principle established by Egypt in the past years and based on a formula of 'no harm, no harm' with Iran.
Under the title "An Arab NATO... Drawn in the Sand", Nasser Al-Sahli in the London-based Al-Araby Al-Jadeed newspaper doubts the possibility of the region's countries succeeding in establishing such an alliance, stressing that "history is not promising since the founding of the Arab League in 1945."
The writer asserts that the choice of some Arab countries to "work with the Israeli occupying state under the umbrella of a Middle Eastern NATO ... will only produce a drawing in the sand."
American interests
Aladdin Hafez says in the Emirati newspaper Al-Roya: "It is no secret to anyone that the US-Gulf relations have been facing the moment of truth for quite some time, as a result of the Biden administration's opposition to the administrations of his predecessors in a number of important files in the region, but the Ukrainian war prompted the US administration to Straighten her compass again." Hafez adds: "
American interests are behind the Biden administration's keenness on this visit, which seeks to narrow the gap of divergent views on a number of regional and international files, as well as its attempts to curb the unprecedented increases in energy prices at home under the weight of the Russian-Ukrainian war." .
So, all the facts predict the failure of such an alliance, but Israel and the United States behind it will continue this attempt, even if it is an attempt to send a message to Tehran that the military option may not be only American and Israeli, but it is open to all possibilities.