Afrasianet - Ali Tami - From 2001 to 2021, when the United States was mired in its own distant wars, the Chinese dragon was busy building itself in silence.

Beijing closed the door to involvement in foreign conflicts, and began a quiet arms and industrialization race, while Washington was draining in the mountains of Afghanistan and the deserts of Iraq, while Moscow, after the chaos of the 1990s, did not pay much attention to the American intervention in Afghanistan or Iraq, but focused on restoring its military and economy, and developing its nuclear and missile arsenal, returning to a difficult player to surpass It has been fighting on the Caucasus fronts since 2022 despite direct European intervention in favor of Kyiv.

China... Between 2001 and 2021, China's economy more than 13 times doubled, from $1.3 trillion to about $17.8 trillion, making China the world's second-largest economy after the United States.

Despite this enormous rise, China preferred to let Washington slip into the "swamps of the Middle East," while it was tightening its grip on the economy, technology, and energy.

Defense spending rose from about $30 billion in 2001 to more than $65 billion in 2021, more than doubled, possessed the world's largest nuclear arsenal with nearly 6,000 nuclear warheads, and developed hypersonic weapons and advanced air defenses that made it capable of challenging any power in the world. on oil and gas exports as a card of influence in the face of the West.

From leading the war to exhausting the empire in 2021, Americans have discovered that they have drained their resources in endless wars.

The real battle is no longer in Kabul or Baghdad, or even inside Syria or Gaza, but in the power struggle with Beijing and Moscow for the leadership of the 21st century.

They were defeated in Afghanistan after the longest war in their history, and withdrew from it, leaving the country under Taliban control, and in Iraq, they spent more than $2 trillion in two decades, and then practically handed the country over to the influence of the militias, whose number according to US reports exceeded 14 armed militias that control the security and political decision there. Facing the Chinese dragon and the Russian bear.

Features of the new transformation are prominent indicators of this shift: – Reduction of direct military involvement in Syria and Iraq, with the intention of gradually handing over areas east of the Euphrates to the Syrian government by the end of this year.

– Seeking to normalize regional files, such as accelerating the resolution of the Palestinian issue and international recognition of it, and resolving the Gaza file within what is known as the "Trump Plan".– Rebuilding strong Sunni alliances in the Middle East, including (Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, Syria and later Iraq) to balance Iran's influence in the region, and to ensure a united front under the American umbrella.

Today, Washington is trying to regain its balance, before the Chinese dragon fully wakes up, and before the new world imposes its rules without it. Or even inside Syria or in Gaza, or even in the power struggle with Beijing and Moscow for the leadership of the 21st century.

The war will most likely begin with a strike at Iran's nuclear reactor, after which Washington will be preoccupied with major files and inside giant stadiums, the most important of which is the war on the front lines in the Caucasus, and devote itself to protecting Taiwan from any possible Chinese invasion.

Syrian writer and political researcher